Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering
Solar geoengineering is a proposed mitigation strategy for global warming. Using stratospheric aerosols injection (SAI) into the Earth’s atmosphere to block incoming radiation, this method proposes to offer some cooling effects for the rapidly heating planet.
However, this poses a serious problem if ever undertaken. It’s called “termination shock” which simply means that once solar geoengineering begins – it can never be stopped. Suddenly stopping man-made solar geoengineering by any method (not just SAI) would cause the Earth to suddenly heat up again.
This is the same problem already identified with current atmospheric particulates (pollution) already found in the atmosphere. This pollution is preventing even more temperature increases right now. If civilization were to suddenly stop emitting pollution into the air – the Earth would heat up in mere weeks. In effect, because of the greenhouse gasses already emitted, air pollution is helping to cool the planet.
The contribution of airborne pollutants to control Earth’s warming is pretty well known. But that isn’t stopping the idea from being more fully examined as a potential strategy to combat global warming. The Risk of Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering
Abstract
If solar geoengineering were to be deployed so as to mask a high level of global warming, and then stopped suddenly, there would be a rapid and damaging rise in temperatures. This effect is often referred to as termination shock, and it is an influential concept. Based on studies of its potential impacts, commentators often cite termination shock as one of the greatest risks of solar geoengineering. However, there has been little consideration of the likelihood of termination shock, so that conclusions about its risk are premature. This paper explores the physical characteristics of termination shock, then uses simple scenario analysis to plot out the pathways by which different driver events (such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, or political action) could lead to termination. It then considers where timely policies could intervene to avert termination shock. We conclude that some relatively simple policies could protect a solar geoengineering system against most of the plausible drivers. If backup deployment hardware were maintained and if solar geoengineering were implemented by agreement among just a few powerful countries, then the system should be resilient against all but the most extreme catastrophes. If this analysis is correct, then termination shock should be much less likely, and therefore much less of a risk, than has previously been assumed. Much more sophisticated scenario analysis—going beyond simulations purely of worst‐case scenarios—will be needed to allow for more insightful policy conclusions.
Solar geoengineering is seriously flawed. It does nothing to reduce or eliminate the long-lived greenhouse gasses already in the atmosphere (that can last thousands of years), and it does nothing to reduce the additional contributions of greenhouse gasses into the Earth system. In effect, the concept is a band-aid that doesn’t heal the wound we have inflicted.
SRM only masks the warming effects of GHGs and is not designed to reduce their concentrations in the atmosphere. Therefore, if SRM were ever used to mask a high level of warming and its deployment were terminated suddenly, temperature would rebound toward the levels they would have reached without the geoengineering (Brovkin et al., 2009; Irvine et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2013; Llanillo et al., 2010; Matthews & Caldeira, 2007; McCusker et al., 2012, 2014). This effect is referred to as “termination shock” or “termination effect.” Termination shock could be very damaging for natural and human systems as the rate of warming would probably be much higher than that otherwise expected under anthropogenic climate change (Irvine et al., 2012; Llanillo et al., 2010; Matthews & Caldeira, 2007; McCusker et al., 2014), meaning that both ecosystems and human societies would have less time to adapt to the rapidly changing new conditions (McCormack et al., 2016; Trisos et al., 2018).
The only way SAI could ever be deployed is by very slowly phasing out the effort, on time spans of 50+ years and certainly, much longer. The paper linked above goes into details, but numerous and troubling questions arise, such as “What happens when we can’t maintain this for any reason?”. Political will, funding, technological errors, breakdown or other unforeseen events could cause disruptions or even a complete shutdown. Termination shock occurs.
However, what bothers me the most is that this concept permits the business-as-usual scenario (real life) to continue to pollute the Earth with greenhouse gasses. The root causes of global warming remain unaddressed, and a band-aid of sorts is applied to the wound we have inflicted upon ourselves and the Earth. Would doing this “buy us time” to solve these other more important issues? I don’t know and I don’t think science knows either.
But it’s a scary proposition.
Postscript:
This is not “proof” of chemtrails or any other such nonsense. I categorically reject Geoengineering Watch and Dane Wigington, Infowars and Alex Jones and all the other nutter connedspiracy websites that claim this is “evidence” of chemtrails or solar radiation management.
There is a misquoted and grossly inaccurate claim dating back to 2013 found on connedspiracy websites as follows:
“If SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence that global surface temperatures would rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing.”
This has been circulated on the connedspiracy websites as “evidence” that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) “knows” about chemtrails. This is a bald-faced lie.
From metabunk.org –
This just goes to prove, as we all already know, that Alex Jones, and ALL of the other Fear Pimps like CGS, and Geoengineering Watch are BLATENT LIARS…
They are all passing this information to their followers and the public, and have to be fully aware that it is a lie!
It is Ridiculous, and a COMPLETE MANIPULATION OF FACTS!
Let me explain……..
What it actually says………… There is No Way the people passing this information around do not know it is a lie.. No Way!
Quote directly from the IPCC Report:
“”Methods that aim to deliberately alter the climate system to counter climate change, termed geoengineering, have been proposed. Limited evidence precludes a comprehensive quantitative assessment of both Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and their impact on the climate system. CDR methods have biogeochemical and technological limitations to their potential on a global scale. There is insufficient knowledge to quantify how much CO2 emissions could be partially offset by CDR on a century timescale. Modelling indicates that SRM methods, if realizable, have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but they would also modify the global water cycle, and would not reduce ocean acidification. If SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence that global surface temperatures would rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing. CDR and SRM methods carry side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale. {6.5, 7.7} “”
***** Now, obviously the IPCC has clearly explained that these PLANS for SRM, IF actually implemented(NOT YET), were to be done, and IF ever stopped… *****
Then ” If SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence that global surface temperatures would rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing. CDR and SRM methods carry side effects and long-term
consequences on a global scale. {6.5, 7.7} ”****** ALEX JONES, and ALL of The CHEMTRAIL Fear Pimps are outright LIARS! ******
NO one can read the full paragraph and not see what it actually says and means. They have hand picked one sentence out and are purposefully and falsely using it to push their Fear Agenda and Propaganda.. This is what they always do. LIE!
