Survivable IPCC projections based on science fiction – reality is far worse
For those few of you that actually give a damn about this extremely important topic, I strongly suggest you watch this video. Perhaps 2 or 3 times and listen carefully. Five minutes.
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The significance of this is this:
a) Virtually ALL of the projections used to date, and shared with industry, government, defense and world leaders contains carbon capture technology provision that does not exist (which literally means the projections are pure “science fiction”).
b) This means that virtually ALL projections everyone has seen to date of “safe levels” or even “survivable levels” are effectively worthless. How worthless? Literally “off the charts” worthless. Temperatures will be MUCH higher then expected and what is being “told” to the public. No lifeforms will survive this. This is not about “too hot” when we speak of no survival. It’s about “no food”, because all plant life / crops will die. Eventually, yes – it will be too hot, but starvation will come long before that.
c) IF by some magic the technology can be developed, funded, supported and deployed, the amount of yearly carbon removal required EXCEEDS all human endeavors to date EVER attempted by mankind. In other words, we’ve never tackled a problem so large or so huge (or so serious), nothing we’ve ever done even comes close. It’s obvious what this means. We lack funding. We lack commitment. We lack the support. We lack the agreement. We lack the will. We lack the technology. We lack EVERYTHING we would need to succeed.
d) Therefore, our chances of “success” (which means “survivable temperatures” where forest, ice, food production and a habitable climate) are virtually nil. Unless you believe in magic and fairy tales.
e) Between now and “then”, temperatures will continue to accelerate – “By 2020, warming rates should eclipse historical bounds of the past 1,000 years — and likely at least 2,000 years — and keep rising”, escalating the intensity of storms, floods and droughts, impacting civilization in numerous ways (while the world continues to dither about “is it real” or not). Also read Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change.
This doesn’t even mention the escalating methane threat – “the rate of methane expulsion from the subsea Arctic methane hydrates has increased from 2.5 to 5 times.” (Malcom Light) – which will continue to contribute to the massive rate of acceleration in warming. Update: (Concern Over Catastrophic Methane Release — Overburden, Plumes, Eruptions, and Large Ocean Craters). More here too – Now two NEW large holes appear in Siberia. Nor was thermal contribution of ocean heating covered. The video only mentions CO₂ levels and how completely impossible and unrealistic it is to reduce this one greenhouse gas to habitable levels. The impact on food production will be beyond catastrophic. The loss of both forests and ice means just what you might think, absolute devastation.
f) There isn’t as much “time” as everyone has been led to believe. 85% of the Arctic ice has already been lost. And that’s just the Arctic. Significant ice loss is still accelerating in Greenland, Antarctic, Himalayas, Andes and the few remaining glaciers around the world. Oceans temperatures are WAY beyond the norm in both the Pacific and Atlantic. In remote places like Siberia last year, people were swimming and sunbathing in once-icy waters. But in the Eastern United States, the snowfall was extreme while ocean temperatures were as high as 21F above normal. The causes of this is understood and it is all directly related to global warming.
g) I’ve long warned of this planetary emergency, as have many other people FAR more qualified then I am. Now, in 2015 some scientist are realizing the error and what these projections really mean. But they’re not just projections as in “theory”. It is well understood that the rise in temperatures are unstoppable for many reasons (inertia, climate lag, continued emissions, albedo and more all apply here). The warnings to the world to address this extremely important topic have been ignored for too long – and now it is too late. What comes next is an inevitable as the rising sun.
h) Even a total “shutdown” of civilization would not work, with zero emissions. Aerosols are inhibiting at least 50% of the warming already “there” and would fall out of the sky within weeks, resulting in very rapid warming. Carbon removal AND methane removal AND ice restored AND ocean cooling are at the MINIMUM what would be required to return the climate back to safe levels, which is humanely impossible to achieve. There is no meaningful debate on this point. This would have to be done concurrently, extremely rapidly and not a single one of these is even possible.
i) Therefore (in conclusion), we have no choice but to accept what will unfold. There is no escape plan. There is no known solution.
j) I could easily tell you what this means, but frankly, I’ve already written about it dozens of times.