Production Declines

A recent estimate is that Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch/Shell and Total S.A., will reach peak oil production in 2007, Chevron Texaco in 2009 and many smaller companies falling in between.

Each of the world’s seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.The world oil shock is already well underway, with peak production still months away. It’s not hard to figure out where this is going and what this means. Refinery capacity is already at near 100%. It takes 5 – 7 years to build a refinery. Meanwhile, worldwide demand continues to escalate.

The widely asked questions of “how much oil is left” and “how fast can oil be produced?” is already irrelevant. Oil in the ground that cannot be refined in time to prevent global shortages and economic hardship is useless.

Then when peak “officially” kicks in a scant few months, no amount of new refineries will make any difference at all, since the available oil is in a permanent state of decline.

You can be certain that the “solutions” offered won’t be pleasant or easy and will involve a lot of bloodshed and suffering as the major and minor players all jockey for position in this losing end-game.


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