More Scientific Bullshit
Here’s another ridiculous optimistic view of the future that is simply wrong on every level: Our climate projections for 2500 show an Earth that is alien to humans
The not-very-scientific conclusions wasn’t based upon actual known knowns… such as actual temperatures and the present temperature pathway that the Earth is on. No, this was all done by using a single climate model (computer software) to project a narrow outcome without any consideration of the critical elements of life. Which makes this type of speculation absolutely useless.
Let’s call this climate delusions. The fantasy that human kind will somehow manage to survive on Earth for another 480 years, which is factually impossible on the present temperature pathway.
I can only wonder why climate scientist engage in this kind of dishonesty and narrow minded worldviews. Don’t they understand that present failing ecosystems indicate that future ecosystems will be uninhabitable to life? There was no mention of the billions of people that could not possibly exist on such an “alien” Earth.
Do you see the problem with this graph they produced?
The problem is these temperatures are beyond survival. There is no possibility of growing any food. So before all mammals die of heat induced deaths, they’ll have already died from starvation as most plant life dies out. Food crops will be long gone before the year 2500.
We’re also NOT on the RCP6.0 pathways for those that don’t know, we’re at 8.5 and still climbing. The truly silly notion that we could somehow achieve a RCP2.6 pathway is based on nothing more the pure speculation and wishful thinking (hopium, smoked in large quantities).
This is what is going to happen should something living survive into the future:
Biological thermal maximum is reached between 2C – 3C resulting in widespread extinctions (including human). Food crops will have already plummeted to zero.
Present pathway of global heating is an extinction level event. Zero possibility of “adaption” under projected temperatures.
2C from pre-industrial (1750 is the correct date, NASA) will be reached by 2040 – 2050, Arctic ice-free summers and albedo loss will create huge heat domes and widespread suffering and deaths. 3C will likely be achieved by 2100.
The notion that humans will survive until 2500 is absolutely ridiculous, temperatures will have long since exceeded thermal maximums for all life forms and excessive wet-bulb temperatures negating nearly all life on Earth. It isn’t C02 that we need to combat immediately, it is excessive heat, which can only be done by reflecting solar energy back into to space.
Lowering C02 emissions will NOT lower temperatures (current heating is from past emissions), this would only lower FUTURE heating. Ending C02 emissions and other gasses will certainly help, but we’re still going to warm up past biological thermal maximums, so we need to combat the extreme energy imbalance FIRST and artificially lower temperatures, while also ending our emissions, and THEN capture as much emissions already in the atmosphere as possible.
Survival of our species is 250ppm – 285ppm, anything over that triggers excessive warming. Billions will still die as global leaders and climate scientist fail to understand the severity of this crisis (delayed warnings / delayed actions, failure to address temperatures in favor of lower C02 emissions).
Summer 2021 revealed just a tiny taste of what is coming, every year, everywhere, longer and longer, hotter and hotter, with the associated excessive evaporation and water vapor creating huge storms, gigantic floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and destruction.
I am no longer surprised that there are climate scientist that still don’t get it. Don’t understand how life works on Earth, don’t understand what thermal tolerance is, don’t understand wet-bulb temperatures, don’t understand that all life requires a food supply that must still exist into the hellish future, and don’t understand that constantly lying about baseline temperatures (notice this one started at the year 2000) just to fudge the numbers is worse then dishonest, it’s criminal.
I don’t mention it often, but algae and ocean deoxygenation may be the death of all life on Earth. It’s not something I worry about as it is not something I can control. If we could actually solve excessive heating, and solve greenhouse gas emissions, we could forestall ocean deoxygenation. Our immediate problem is how can we solve excessive solar energy being trapped by the polluted Earth’s atmosphere.
‘Existential risks to our planetary life-support systems’
It is not news that we are over stretching our planetary support systems: we have known for some time. In a 2009 keynote paper in Nature titled “A safe operating space for humanity”, a group of 26 prominent scientists showed three of nine interlinked planetary boundaries – boundaries we must stay within to keep Earth safe – have already been overstepped (see Figure 1). Those boundaries include:
climate change
biodiversity loss
the biogeochemical cycles.
Kevin Trenberth, chief scientist of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, states:
Some of the human-induced changes are occurring 100-times faster than they occur in nature … And this is one of the things that worries me more than climate change itself. It’s actually the rate of change that’s most worrying … Ecosystems are not prepared for this jolt … And neither are many human endeavours, built around assumptions about how hot it’s going to be, how much it’s going to rain on our croplands, and how high the seas will rise.“
https://theconversation.com/existential-risks-to-our-planetary-life-support-systems-16896
And
Many climate change models, including by the IPCC, appear to neglect or minimize the amplifying feedbacks of global warming, which are pushing temperatures upward in a chain reaction-like process, as projected by Wally Broecker and others.
A climate chain reaction is believed to have pertained about 55 million years ago (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM]).
During the Anthropocene (post-1750 and in particular post-1900) greenhouse gas and temperature growth rates levels exceeded those of the PETM and of the end of the last glacial termination (LGT). During 2010-2020 an acceleration of global warming is reflected by an anomalous rise in greenhouse gas levels and temperatures (Figure 1).
According to Peter Ward and others early examples of mass extinctions triggered by biological processes were related to ocean anoxia and acidification leading to CH4 and H2S release by “purple” and “green” algae and sulphur bacteria. Likewise, anthropogenic global warming constitutes a geological/biological process for which the originating organisms (humans) have not to date been able to discover an effective method of control.
The critical criterion definitive of global warming is the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, rising from 280 to 419 ppm, i.e. by about 49% since pre-industrial time, only rarely mentioned by the media and politicians. Other parameters of climate change, such as the level of methane and nitrous oxide, have risen about 3-fold. While opinions by journalists, politicians, economists and social scientists proliferate, less attention is given to what is indicated by climate science, rendering the global response to the looming calamity increasingly irrelevant.
Thus, whereas most models portray linear rise in temperature, the evidence for the breading of the circum-Arctic jet stream, allowing cold and warm fronts to cross the boundary, would result in high storminess in high latitudes.
“Most scientists agree that climate change is happening faster than predicted. More than one-third of the world’s soil, which produces 95% of the world’s food supply, is currently degraded. By 2035, outdoor air pollution is projected to be a top cause of environmentally-related deaths worldwide, and half the world’s population will face water shortages.” However, many scientists are reluctant to warn the public about the full consequences of accelerating global heating. Namely, as Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s chief climate scientist has stated, the existential risk to the life support systems of the planet.
There is a heavy price to pay for communicating distressing evidence, Cassandra-like, including psychological factors and/or social and professional isolation. Personal optimism may overcome realism. Some scientists are either self-censored or have their work suppressed or dismissed within institutions or by the media, including in government and academia. Some scientists have lost their position.
As cited in the article titled “When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job“ … “Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can’t really talk about it”, and elsewhere “in private conversations, many climate scientists express far greater concern at the progression of global warming and its consequences than they do in public”. It is not uncommon to hear people criticizing climate scientists for not telling them more about the future climate, although when they are told, many recoil. Then there is the plethora of false promises by politicians.’
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-dilemma-of-climate-scientists.html
The notion that humans have to control everything is ludicrous. It’s clear we have reached far beyond our means and far beyond our actual understanding. The natural processes the regulated the Earth do not need human interference, which means humans need to stop trying to control them, and to stop making these worse by polluting the atmosphere, water and soil with toxic emissions. By doing so, we interrupted the natural processes and the physical response triggering deadly effects. So “ending our efforts” at “control” would be the first order of business for humanity.
This is both the root cause and the topic of no conversations within the science community and policy makers. They cannot fathom that we should just “stop”, when stopping is the only thing we actually CAN do. This is within our control too – leave nature alone. Let nature take care of itself. It’s more then capable, and does not need our pathetic interference and “adjustments” to processes that we still do not fully understand.
But this will never happen. We cannot fathom leaving nature alone. We cannot even conceive of the concept that humans should stop trying to control everything. Own everything. Build everything. Buy everything. None of this needs to happen, but that is a world which is beyond our comprehension and understanding.
Here is an example of how wrong headed our thinking is: Automakers’ problems are much worse than we thought
I disagree. Automakers should use this opportunity to build FEWER cars. The world can do just fine without another 7.7 million polluting automobiles. We don’t actually need more (of anything), in order to survive, we need less (of everything) and give nature a rest from the gigantic human footprint and poisons we are releasing.
But that’s just me, an uncommon thinker who doesn’t endorse crapitalism, the process of destroying the world to satiate greed.