Blog readers SHOULD know by now how dangerously incorrect some of the science is on what we can soon expect. For example, the IPCC report (due in 2014) completely omits permafrost melting from any projections.
Now, there is a new report that should be digested. Degrees are in Celsius:
And now a new study has shown just how unrealistic the 2-degree goal is. “If we keep going on as we have been, it will be 5 degrees,” says co-author Glen Peters, who works at Norway’s Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO). And scientists agree that such a dramatic warming of the earth’s temperature would have devastating consequences.
The consequences of the projected increase of five degrees would be fatal. Researchers already expected that an increase of two degrees would result in glacial melt at the polar caps, and a dramatic increase in sea levels and droughts that would likely lead to waves of migration worldwide. All of this would be significantly more intense in the event of a five-degree increase of emissions.
There is widespread reporting (which I have not bothered to cover since it was so predictable) that the current climate talks would fail. And they are failing.
It should be becoming crystal clear that the entire world is facing an absolutely hellish future. And that political will to address the crisis remains criminally absent.
I’ll have more to say on this later.
Update: Radio Ecoshock has a new broadcast the states it quite clearly – extinction ahead (audio only). And far, far sooner then you may think.
Grab a beer, sit down and take a listen. Contemplate what this is going to mean. Readjust your priorities, starting tonight. It won’t change the outcome, but you’ll still be better off.
I was playing around tonight with a plug-in for WordPress that indexes all several thousands posts on the this blog. After getting it working, I stumbled across a post of mine from 2006 (six years ago) that makes it clear – just 2°C of warming is “catastrophic”. We’ve been told all along what we could reasonably expect, and for at least six years I’ve been writing about it. Now, the (brave) science is finally saying the same thing.
We’ve been lulled asleep into thinking that “just 2°C” is okay by us, because of very bad reporting in the past, after all, how bad could that really be? But we’re forgetting what that figure actually represents and how less the half of this number has already resulted in 50 million climate refugees. It’s also a far, far higher number in the Arctic where the ice is found, which will all melt at just 2°C or less.
The image below is the Arctic temperature anomalies recorded in November 2012, a whopping 20C:
There are also elevated levels of methane from the same exact period:
“This is what abrupt climate change looks like. In the paleorecords global average temperatures increased over 6 degrees C within a decade or two, I suppose we will know more precise numbers in a few short years.”
If 2°C is now well understood as “catastrophic”, 6 °C isn’t even in the realm of “survivable” in “a few short years” which now appears to be all we have left. Global rapid catastrophic climate change is now an established fact.
Follow the link above, there is a short video worth watching.