I’m going to share some news on what scientists “think” we need to do to avoid catastrophic climate change. I already know (and can prove) that this is all wrong, but to put this into perspective, it’s important that you know what they’re claiming:
In order to keep the climate from warming beyond 2°C, “to avoid the worst risks of a hotter planet”, these things MUST be done –
1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.” Lead author Johan Rockström told me they were thinking of an analogy to Moore’s law for transistors; we’ll see why.
2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.
3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.
Now here is the bad news for humans (everyone alive or to be born) – these goals are categorically impossible to achieve, as in it can’t happen – ever.
1) The global growth paradigm is fossil fuel based (and always will be) and will never “agree” to contract voluntarily. Even in a global collapse of the economy, there will still be continued greenhouse gas emissions and growth. That is the long and short of it.
2) Emissions from land use will never fall to zero. Never, ever. Not unless humans are long dead and gone, agriculture (and food) is extinct and thousands of years have passed to restore the natural equilibrium of the planet.
3) No such technologies exist to scale and likely, never will. The requirements of even a single one of these ‘giant vacuums’ (or anything else yet imagined) exceeds every project ever devised by mankind. We lack virtually everything to accomplish even one of these projects proposed so far, the funding, political will, technological expertise and time. And there is a huge question of whether we even have the resources to pull one of these projects off.
The so-called ‘decarbonization’ requirement to keep warming below 2°C is an utter fantasy. It will never, ever happen. And it is a argument / claim that needs to be utterly abandoned because it has always been a lie and nothing is going to change this fact.
The rest of the article linked above will tell you a bit about ‘carbon pricing’ which in a fossil fuel derived world, may sound like it makes sense, but this too is false. Marketing the price of carbon does nothing to change the emissions of carbon as supposed, and does not address any of the root causes of our contributions to greenhouse gases. It is a disingenuous claim that will not stop warming at all, but it will make some people / countries rich in the meanwhile.
The ‘roadmap’ isn’t just staggering – it is impossible, a virtual pipe dream that needs to be called out for what it is – an utter fantasy. And what this claim really means by virtue of its impossibility is there is no way humans are going to stop warming up the planet and making things worse. It’s just not going to happen – ever. Not in ANY of the scenarios described, but I cant think of several not described (volcanism / catastrophic collapse of civilization, global plague / catastrophic collapse of civilization and so forth – none good). Whatever actually happens, its going to be a very rough and difficult time to be alive.
I’m not arguing that we should not try to stop global warming – try we must (read my history on this point). I’m stating, categorically – we will fail with every approach so far devised. And here is the truth of the matter – we will fail because we failed to address the issue long ago when we should have and when we could have. Moreover, we will fail because we refuse to sacrifice this civilization as the carbon emitting heat engine that it really is. Growth / civilization must end – and as you would expect, it’s not on the table and never will be.
I’ve known this for years and years now and find every article, story, claim and wishful hopium ‘argument’ that claims otherwise to be seriously misguided delusional disinformation. We’re being terribly dishonest about the reality of our situation and our willingness to do what it takes. I think it is unlikely that we’ll ever admit to our utter foolishness on this matter.
Therefore, the “large-scale geoengineering” option is definitely what is going to happen. Expect it. It’s also what industry really wants. This way, it allows them to postpone any real effort as long as possible. They can pass this horrifying future off to your children (more on that later). They’ll be very busy claiming how necessary this is while deflecting their own unwillingness to act decisively when they should have. Geoengineering is most definitely in your future – and it’s risky as hell. It also carries the same caveats – as long as we try to preserve this destructive civilization, nothing we do will work in the long term.
In the meanwhile – expect higher and higher temperatures, a massively stalled jet stream with long unendurable “weather” (hot / cold / wet / dry) patterns, rapidly rising food prices and spreading starvation, widespread economic impacts and endless lies, denials, distractions, obfuscation and greedy opportunists trying to cash in from oh, … just about everybody.