Half Of the Amazon Rainforest To Be Lost

Lonewolf sent me this, I’ve been too busy stomping out brushfires and responding to email — Half the Amazon Rainforest to be Lost by 2030

The report, “Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire,” concludes that 55 percent of the world’s largest rainforest stands to be severely damaged from agriculture, drought, fire, logging and livestock ranching in the next 22 years. Another 4 percent may be damaged by reduced rainfall caused by global warming. This is anticipated to destroy up to 80 percent of wildlife habitat in the region.

Wow. As bad as this in, this still isn’t going to go far enough. It’s like 50 – 100 years sooner then the other past estimates, but I’ll step waaaaaay out on a limb here, because this is yet another example of a growing trend I’ve seen.

Here goes: move that timeline up by 15 years. By 2020 we’ll have lost most of the Amazon (just 12 years from now). The reason I’m saying that is because of two factors. Climate change effects are FAR worse then most scientist have been willing to admit. The rate of change is happening much faster then they’ve estimated (which they now admit).

Secondly, human population impacts on the Amazon are still increasing dramatically. Logging and agricultural uses are having a stupendous impact on the remaining forest. This estimate, in my opinion, is also overtly optimistic:

WWF warned that the “point of no return” for the Amazon rainforest, from which ecological recovery will be impossible, is only 15-25 years in the future, much sooner than has previously been supposed.

I strongly suspect that we are less then 2 – 3 years AT MOST for the point of no return, if we are not there already.

The only way we could reverse this trend, or even “meet” the WWF predictions is dramatically reduce human impact and human populations. This might happen yet, I’ll let you speculate how.

But Lonewolf has this to say, now that you read mine:

Wonder how much they ‘figure is gone already (article didn’t say-tmk) – I’d bet 20% completely gone and another 20% damaged now. I’ll also bet that their time line is ‘optimistic’ – that as with every other environmental forecast it’s off by nearly an order of magnitude.

So, IMO take their 30% claim and add to the current looses and speed it up by 30-40% and you have half gone in 5 years, 3/4 gone by 2020, and gone gone by 2030. I’ve also read that the self-reinforcing (negative) feedback wrt to the internal rain cycle is already tripped – years ago.

The ‘report’ claim of 4% reduction in rainfall by 2030 is overt fraud IMO. It’s already way beyond 4% reduction. Also read that 3 consecutive years of drought would transform the entire rain forest to savanna if not desert in short order (years, not decades). The Amazon basin has had “unprecedented” droughts 2 out of the last 3 years already with major tributaries turned into channels of dust (not mud). Just last night I watched the rerun of “6 degrees could change the world” where they showed this in graphic detail (past tense).

Worth reading: Global Warming Is A Brutal Truth

More Lonewolf commentary and quotations:

“But in the Sahel, as I have seen, an effective adaptation technology is already being deployed. It’s called the AK47.”

“The message, never stated but constantly emerging, is that we all have our self-justifying myths. We tell ourselves a story of our lives in which we almost always appear as the heroes. These myths prevent us from engaging with climate change.

The most powerful story of all, endlessly narrated by the hired hands of the fossil fuel industry, just as it was once told by the sugar slavers, is that we are both all-important and utterly insignificant. We are too important to be denied any of the delights we crave, but too insignificant to exert any impact on planetary processes. We fill the whole frame of the story when it suits us and shrink to a dot when that scale is more convenient. We are capable of occupying both niches simultaneously.

It is not just because The Great Global Warming Swindle is at odds with the entire body of scientific knowledge on this subject that I have bothered to contest it. It is also because it is consonant with the entire body of human self-deception. We want to be misled, we crave it; and we will bend our minds into whatever shape they need to take in order not to face our brutal truths.”

HOWEVER – as peak oil and peak food (aka peak you) take hold of the sheeples short hairs, peak climate will become a distant memory and totally ignored (mass denial cubed).

Let me be frank here (since John isn’t being listened to): Collapse is here to stay. Period. It’s a foregone factual conclusion now that we are in the twilight of our civilization. Probably a good thing too. I have no love whatsoever for the rapacious greedy system we have developed.

None of us deserve to survive this. But admittedly, we’re all going to try. The future world (the one that exist by the time you finish reading this blog entry) is radically different then the world of yesterday. Climate change is happening far faster then we’ve been grudgingly told (especially by the Bush Administration that has suppressed thousands of scientists and reports now).

Even worse, the future world will not permit all of us to survive this. This is also a factual impossibility. This is happening of course right now. The only survivors will be those that have successfully adapted to these changes underway. In the meanwhile, there will be many varied attempts to postpone the inevitable. We’ll drill the continental shelf and the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge first. And we’ll cut down the rest of the rainforest too.

It goes without saying that we should do none of these things, but we will. And anyone who opposes them will be labeled a domestic terrorist, since our “non-negotiable” way of life is so sacrosanct and sacred. Too bad that doesn’t also apply to the planet we live on, you know, that blue ball that gives us all life and sustenance.

Killing off the entire planet seems to be the destiny of humans. Until that comes to a full stop, I strongly suspect that this is what is going to happen. But almost nobody is willing to talk about stopping all of our planet destroying behavior so that we can continue to live here.  Instead, the discussion always revolves around making things worse. If that is not insane behavior, then I do not know what is.

We need to reevaluate our role here on this rock, and whether or not we should permit each other to do what we’re doing to the place. If we don’t, we will all die, in a choking, acrid and barren landscape surrounded by empty brass casings. It’s that simple.

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11 thoughts on “Half Of the Amazon Rainforest To Be Lost

  • July 23, 2008 at 10:21 am
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    Note: a portion of that “commentary” attributed to ‘lonewolf’ was (is) an except from George Monbiot’s article.

    Have a ‘nice self-justifying myth’ day!

  • July 23, 2008 at 10:28 am
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    None of us “deserve” to survive this? Moralizing is rather irrelevant and also assumes that everyone shares the same morals.

    Far better to look at this through the lens of natural selection, since that is what is actually going to occur. Yes, almost all of us will try to survive what is coming. Yes, almost all of us will fail at that test.

    From the perspective of the planet or even the species, the individual deaths will serve to improve things. If you want a ray of hope, remember that if you do not make it through, that whoever does will get a better world than what we’ve got now. And if you are one of those lucky few, you might say a thank you on that future day to whatever quirks of fate or deity you think helped you along the way.

  • July 23, 2008 at 10:36 am
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    We don’t deserve to survive this because we have done scant little to stop this. This would of course include our daily lifestyles which are contributing to the problem on a massive scale.

    I can’t go to the Amazon (easily) and shoot the loggers or bury a farmer on his own plot of land. I recognize this all too well — we all need the source of income, food and lifestyle, which is highly destructive, for each and every one of us. We are forced into this system of slavery by forces beyond our control.

    But I can change my lifestyle here and although I am making much progress in that direction, I’m honestly failing rather miserably (imo). My own personal standard for this lifestyle is rather high I would say, and therefore, I’ve yet to achieve a lifestyle that isn’t destructive.

    One of the reasons I’m so keen on what Torjus is doing is because it is the only truly sustainable lifestyle there really is. Everything else is really a lie (claiming sustainability).

    But very few people are really putting in this kind of effort (adaption) and therefore, they do not deserve to inherit the future. None of us do in my opinion (for this reason alone, there are of course, many others).

    My morals are indeed irrelevant, as they won’t change anything.

  • July 23, 2008 at 11:39 am
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    Morality is a luxury (see Maslow’s hierarchy), it seems sad to say.

    It seems that humanity is condemned to repeat history, making the same mistakes over and over again, each time greater in scope and scale. We really are not that different from the Rapa Nui (Easter Island).

  • July 23, 2008 at 12:24 pm
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    I’ll say this once again.
    ” THE ONLY LESSON WE LEARN FROM HISTORY IS THAT WE DO NOT LEARN FROM HISTORY”!

    On another note, I just read that the Amazon produces 40% of the world oxygen. I have no idea what will happen if this is even cut in half other than those who live close to sea level will be the last standing on Earth.

    It is definitely starting to get interesdting.

  • July 23, 2008 at 3:01 pm
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    Arctic Circle holds 90 bln barrels oil: U.S. Govt
    ~ //networks.org/?src=reuters:2008-07-23T194344Z_01_N23445493_RTRUKOC_0_US-ARCTIC-OIL

    SO, afeter searching PO.com and not finding any mention of this ‘report’ or article, I ‘broke down’ and posted a link to it in the Geopolitics forum (for the first time in a couple years at PO). I then sent a link to my post to Admin. By the time he tried to access the post/article (10 min.), PO.com totally removed it (without comment). Not moved it somewhere else mind you, they deleted it totally (aka it ‘never happened’). Go figure. Reuters reports on a US Govt. claim of 90 billions of barrels crude and umpteen trillions of cu ft of nat gas (damn I hope not) and it’s NOT PO worthy news. Ha ha ha FUCKING sheoPOle morons. They yammer on and on about anything, everything and mainly nothing over there, but when a ‘news’ story (true or not) appears, the delete it. How convenient. And they call this the internet the “alternative News”. Seems to me that censorship is the ‘alternative’ sites is just as real as in the MSM.

  • July 23, 2008 at 3:26 pm
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    I don’t post on other boards for various reasons. PO mods have demonstrated to me a lack of integrity and character and I haven’t been there in a very long time now.

    This isn’t a pissing contest or a popularity, but Lonewolf has a valid point here.

    Regarding the article, what really made me mad was this stupidity:

    “Before we can make decisions about our future use of oil and gas and related decisions about protecting endangered species, native communities and the health of our planet, we need to know what’s out there,” said USGS Director Mark Myers.

    It doesn’t make a whit of difference “how much is out there” when it comes to protecting endangered species or native communities or the health of the planet. We make the decisions IRREGARDLESS of the so-called “supply” (black death).

    It would not matter if the entire Arctic Circle WAS a giant pool of black death, we should be choosing far more wisely then this moron advocates.

    This is like dangling a chocolate covered carrot in front of a sugar-starved rabbit. It’s a no-brainer decision for idiots who believe that everything has a price tag.

  • July 23, 2008 at 4:11 pm
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    Moral or ethical, they both mean the same thing to me. What I believe is that morals were contrived by man and that ethical behavior is an instinct (so to speak).
    Sorry, I know you’ll probably disagree with me.

    When living in South Dakota many moons ago I worked at a place called ‘Mostly Rocks’. The girl that trained me once said, “we’re raping the planet”. That stuck inside this cranium and has motivated me to this day.

    And to me we are at the point of no return.

  • July 23, 2008 at 8:10 pm
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    I wonder how many first world humans are trying to change, or have changed, their wasteful ways. I mean REALLY change, not just stockpile food like all of us are trying to do. Out of 6+ billion, maybe 1,000?

    We’re still on the grid like many others because we’re so busy trying to grow our food that we cannot even find time to research solar systems.

    A good wakeup call the past few nights was when something (?raccoon?) got into the Hopi Blue corn, so most of today was spent makeshift fencing same. If it/they get in again and eat most of it, it may be a preview of what’s to come. Most of us who grow food know how perilous it could be to lose an entire crop some year. Nowadays there is nowhere to find replacement seeds that don’t have GM contamination. In fact, finding ANY corn seeds might be difficult in the near future. Sceery times indeed, in view of fact that Arctic Circle might be site of next oil/energy war, aside from Iran.

  • July 24, 2008 at 11:01 pm
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    Lonewolf, that article got discussed at TOD recently but it was a Yahoo version of the same. The interesting thing in the Yahoo article was that they mentioned the 90 billion barrels of oil but then put it in context – 3 years of the planet’s current consumption. That’s it.

    Lynda, research Amaranth. The Spanish forbade it when they conquered the new world because it was used in religious rituals to make figures that the participants ate. The Spanish saw this as a sacrilege of Catholic communion so they forbade the practice and the growing of Amaranth. But Amaranth is a dog-gone weed and continued to grow for centuries. It’s seed (the grain) is one of the most nutritious grains in existence. It grows easily throughout most of North America’s tropical, subtropical, and desert climates. And it has higher protein than almost any other grain. More remarkably, none of this protein is gluten! So those of us who still have our hunter-gatherer’s genes and cannot digest gluten (present in large amounts in wheat, barley, and rye) can eat Amaranth without any fear of reaction.

    You might want to experiment with Amaranth. I know that I plan to do so very soon as invasive species have made it almost impossible for me to grow corn in South Texas (Johnsongrass and the corn dwarfism virus that it carries) and I can’t grow wheat, barley, or rye because of the gluten intolerance.

  • July 26, 2008 at 6:15 pm
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    Our thinking becomes more difficult each day. I have no illusions that our “perfect storm” can be beat. Decades of observing our species has informed my view that humans are selfish and not remotely strategic, and plainly stupid.

    I am dysphoric now and then, wandering in a kind of numb dream state amongst people who have not the remotest conception that we are in a fatal crisis. It seems to me that in addition to struggling to survive, I should be planning how to die well, before the suffering becomes too great. There will be a point at which survival has no point at all. This seems to me to be the elephant in the room that nobody wants to face in preparedness.

    We are not in control, we cannot be in control, and all we have is our awareness such as it is through a thick fog of disinformation. We can do this and that, but it won’t work and we all know it. It will be for each of us to decide how long we wish to persist.

    MD

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