Lonewolf has submitted an excellent summary of climate impacts that should (if you’re a sentient being) have you quaking in your boots after you digest the implications of what this means:
Current GMST Increase (global mean surface temperature increase) over pre-industrial surface temperatures = +.8 to 1.2°C increase.
When industry shuts down (totally) – near immediate surface temperature increase of +0.5 C or more.
When JIT (just in time) transport and BAU shuts down – another near immediate +0.2°C or more. Shutdown occurs due to energy collapse or any other ‘event’.
Effective post-industrial crash GMST = +1.5 to +2.0C (as of yesterday). This is in effect — a catastrophic, ELE (extinction level event).
With continuing and (ever) accelerating green house gas release from human and Earth release, this means:
CO2 – FF emissions, and forests (tropical, boreal, agriculture, etc., all plant life) phytoplankton decomposition (die-off)
all constantly accelerating — how many people will burn everything in sight to stay warm when oil/NG flows are interrupted/halted?
CH4 – from tundra, permafrost, muskeg, hydrates, clathrates, cows, termites, other anaerobic decomposition
already started, all accelerating and just getting rolling.
“Uncovering the [permafrost and continental shelf] methane reservoir could potentially warm the Earth tens of degrees C, and the mechanism could be very rapid, ..”
Also interesting — What Is Guilty Of Warming: Methane Or Carbonic Acid Gas?
H2O – inc. T and albedo ^ evap ^ RH & cloud ^^ T
already started, just getting rolling and to accelerate
– that ‘expert’ predications (forecasts) have be proven consistently wrong erring on (alleged) ‘cautionary’ side
by approx 50% in delta-T/time terms.
– feedback effects have yet to be measured and many not factored by some forecasters
– no one is factoring for reduction of ‘global dimming’ from particulate emissions
– few are taking CH4 at all seriously – not proportionally to probable impacts
I ‘predict’ that +5 °C happens much closer to 2050 (or before) vs/ 2100 (and I agree, based upon the constantly corrected scientific reports from all around the world — Admin).
Something along these lines:
From WIKI — Methane clathrates and climate change
Main article: Clathrate Gun Hypothesis
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Despite its short atmospheric half life of 7 years, methane has a global warming potential of 62 over 20 years and 21 over 100 years (IPCC, 1996; Berner and Berner, 1996; vanLoon and Duffy, 2000). The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits has been hypothesized as a cause of past and possibly future climate changes. Events possibly linked in this way are the Permian-Triassic extinction event, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.
Climate scientists such as James Hansen expect that methane clathrates in the permafrost regions will be released as a result of global warming, unleashing powerful feedback forces which may cause runaway climate change that cannot be controlled.
Recent research carried out in 2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tons of methane being releasedwith concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times above normal..
[This is why the 2°C “target” is such bullshit — because this means additional temperature increases are thereby guaranteed from multiple feedback loops, which therefore guarantees further increases to 3°C and then to 4°C and then to 5 °C and even higher GMST increases.
The end result of this “nominal” 2°C increase is crystal clear – any temperature increase guarantees our destruction and the rest of life on Earth. This is not something we can stop or stabilize — Admin]
“Evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring faster than previously predicted and we are perilously close to a number of tipping points which, if passed, would amplify the effects of climate change and make it much more difficult to bring further warming under control. We cannot emphasize enough just how serious the situation has become.”