Civil Unrest May Last 10 – 15 Years

This is an interesting study: Scientist predicted current U.S. protests and riots in 2010, says civil unrest may last 10-15 years

Goldstone’s work establishes that every major social and political movement, like revolutions, take place after a surge in births. As families have more children, the population quickly exceeds the country’s ability to take care of everyone. The standard of living drops and civil unrests begins.

While overpopulation causes daily life to crumble, the model says the financial and social elite begin taking sides. Some of these people will side with protesters against the current social system they have prospered in while others continue supporting the government. Goldstone’s models show all these factors end with an eruption of violence and even civil war in some nations.

Turchin and Russian scientists are now using this work to develop models looking at how the future will play out. These forecasts focus on four major factors:

  • The state (size of the government, GDP, debts, the legitimacy of power)
  • Population (its size, age demographics, level of urbanization, average wages, social optimism)
  • The “elites” (their population, their sources of income, their internal competition and social norms)
  • Instability (radical ideologies, terrorist or revolutionary movements, acts of public violence)

None of the models will have adequately mapped the effects of climate change, resource instability and decline, or energy decline. Which means to my awareness, that the instability will last far longer then they predict. But it is no surprise that this is cyclic and overpopulation has a lot to do with it. I’ve always said that “democracy” (fairness) can only exist in a world of abundance; when anything exceeds or threatens that abundance, problems and crisis will arise.

I think we are only at the very beginning of civil unrest, I expect the situation to get dramatically worse. The anger in the streets in palpable now, and while I think much of it is misguided based on false memes, fake facts and rampant disinformation, some of it is legitimate and authentic. That is to say – there are valid reasons to be angry. Another saying of mine: if you’re well-adjusted to this society, then there is probably something wrong with your thinking.

Our society is terribly injust and getting worse. This post won’t be about those particular points, already covered many times before. We’re going to endure, and suffer through the upheavals without any respite. If science predicts that we’re right on target now for this type of disruption, that’s just one more data point to consider as we move ever forward towards whatever comes next.

Many people are ignorantly calling for civil war, but I’ll keep saying this until I can’t: they will wind up dead, shot or in prison, because the laws of this country will STILL  apply, so THINK before you stupidly decide to act. Tearing this country apart is not in anyone’s best interest, not even yours.


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