Getting the Facts Rights Is Important
There is another article about dangerous heat exposure published in the Conversation, and now picked up by several other online publications. I read through it and find it wholly inadequate and incorrect, while correctly addressing some important points, such as inadequate modeling and assumptions. The over-reliance on inaccurate computer models has become a real problem in my opinion, they do not reflect real life accurately and what is already being experienced.
The basic premises is that yes, it’s getting warm, people will be affected, which of course is all true. More people then thought will be severely affected by excess temperatures when more accurate predictions are being made. Billions more.
I knew this, but I still find some pretty significant errors in the article. They said “Urban population growth itself is not the problem”. Well, depends on who you’re asking. Urban growth is a component of deadly climate change. Any growth makes a contribution to the global energy imbalance. So this vague claim of this not being a problem makes no sense at all.
And this was written by several scientists.
I am at a loss to explain why these water-down, disingenuous articles keep getting published. Doesn’t anybody even check these things? Apparently not, because this is extremely commonplace – publish what sounds good or at least “not too scary” versus what is actually occurring and describe accurately where it’s actually going.
Dangerous planetary warming isn’t something to downplay or water down, or need I say “chill out” about. I wish we could. I wish there was some way to avoid what is already unfolding, but except for one possible idea – I have found nothing that can live up to the hope and hopium that is always dished out.
Anyway, there are several inaccuracies in this article, to which I had a few comments:
The correct pre-industrial date is actually 1750 according to NASA and numerous other sources.
The world has already warmed past 1.5C and is swiftly approaching 2C using the correct pre-industrial temperatures. Unstoppable temperature increases are now guaranteed to exceed at least 2.5C due to albedo, ocean warming, and jet stream circulation. This will impact billions.
Current emission trajectory is actually 8.5C of heating (based on emissions still being released).
Warming, not C02 is the current biggest threat. Warming must be reduced NOW by reflecting excess solar energy gain back into space. C02 levels in the atmosphere and oceans (ocean acidification) cannot be significantly reduced by any known method, including tree planting (not enough land, not enough time).
There is no known way to “reduce risk”, dangerous warming is simply going to happen now (baked in) unless solar energy gain is removed using large mirrors. Aerosols are presently masking even more warming (pollution) which would jump temperatures up in just two weeks if they were removed by at least 1C, pushing the planet past biological thermal maximum limits of 2C – 3C (plants and animals die en masse, including humans).
Wet-bulb temperatures are now already exceeding survival rates and would drastically wipe out millions WHEN we push past 2C (not “if”, it will happen very soon now).
The horrible reality is the world is being badly misled about how much temperatures have already risen, what is guaranteed to happen, and how hot it is going to get – no matter what.
This article doesn’t even begin to cover the magnitude of the crisis.
6 thoughts on “Getting the Facts Rights Is Important”
I’d like to comment on this latest article but things are turning very nasty very quickly in NZ general, and are turning extremely nasty very quickly in the district I live in. I used the word vicious a few minutes ago.
I will explain more later, as this terrible mess unfolds and the corruption and lies of those supposedly in charge get exposed.
I sincerely hope that what I read today (not on this website) is not true. If it turns out to be true, the level of catastrophe and pace societal meltdown will be far greater than anyone imagined possible.
Keep us posted. I don’t presume to know what this might be, NZ cases are rising again: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/new-zealand-covid-cases-rise-to-new-record-as-young-people-bear-brunt-of-infections
We are being lied to (of course). And the lies are fracturing communities.
Everyone needs to read this:
Sorry, not publishing this material here. There are countless problems with this ‘anonymous’ article, namely it’s largely bullshit and immediately suspect. Receiving medical advice from an anonymous source should be the first clue; but there were quite a few others. Conflating ridiculous claims isn’t something that I want on this blog. That site used to be better then what it’s now become, the owner should be doing the same – ending the spread of disinformation instead of promoting it. Many, if not most sites have capitulated and lack integrity, performing little oversight of their so-called ‘sources’ received. But this isn’t even a ‘source’, it’s anonymous and pretends to offer medical insight (not). Worse, it promotes numerous discredited claims, not going to allow this here.
Don’t go down this rabbit hole. It’s not what you think.
On the matter of the NZ government and its mishandling of everything, I personally knew Bill Little, father of Andrew Little, and knew his mother Cecily because she played at the same club as me.
Andrew Little emerged on the scene in 2011, seeking to become an MP. I had lengthy discussions with him on the matters of energy, the environment and finance, and he purchased a copy of TEW to study with me.
Not too long after our initial, very cordial meetings, he demonstrated total unreliability, and deceit. This later morphed into absolute obnoxiousness, culminating in slanderous statements.
Andrew Little was unable to win the electoral seat of New Plymouth, largely because he was generally disliked. However, under MMP rules, he was able to piggyback into parliament, where he became leader of the LINO (Labour In Name Only) party. He made such a mess of that and was so unpopular he had to resign as leader; leadership fell to Jacinda Adern, a professional liar, trained in the delivery of lies and propaganda by Tony B Liar, amongst others Andrew Little, despite never actually being elected, still managed to keep his snout in the public feeding trough, and held various portfolios, including the Orwellian Minister of Justice.
We knew from the outset that Jacinda Adern was a fraud because no one becomes PM unless they are members of ‘the club’. And her pronouncements about climate change were beyond ludicrous; far from fixing it, every policy promoted by Adern makes the predicament far worse.
I give this as background because it is clear to many of us that the LINO government has zero credibility, and is making everything worse, including the Covid mess.
I can’t speak to anything in NZ – here, they’ve made everything a mess. The previous Administration ensured that the pandemic would wipe out at least a half-million, my own prediction is we will lose at least a million. But it did not have to be this way. Early on it was very obvious that they had no idea how to handle this, nor did they employ anyone who actually did; they even ignored their own playbook for exactly this type of situation. Trump seriously fucked everything up. By the time the reigns were passed on, the new Administration had almost nothing to work with. They had refused to cooperate with the incoming Administration and they started many of the programs from scratch, trying to unwind the inherited mess. By that time, half a million were dead.
Politicians lack perspective imo. They’re bred and indoctrinated into being what they are – money managers. This doesn’t bode well for a nation or a world in a health crisis. Even their appointees toe the same line. Early warnings were ignored, derided, ridiculed. Their own health experts couldn’t agree amongst themselves (Peter Principle at work). Turf wars and political grandstanding ensued. Meanwhile the virus didn’t give a good goddamn about any of it, but it was now way, way too late to put the genie back in the bottle.
Nations don’t deal with any crisis well, they’re not designed for it. To become a career politician, you have to be corruptible, answering to money and special interests, trading in favors and obligations and backroom deals while pretending to practice the role of democracy. It’s a rigged game, designed to favor money and power, but not public health or even public needs. The real wealth always (always) flows to the rich and powerful, the crumbs still on the table are what the public fights over and stupidly thinks they’re “getting something”.
Most Americans were bought off with the pandemic relief checks, but I don’t know what happened in NZ. The paltry amount of money actually given to “the people” is a tiny, minuscule fraction of all the graft given to the wealthy corporations that claimed they were “harmed” by the turn-down. I don’t remember the actual number, but I seem to recall over 50 BILLION dollars was actually looted from the Treasury due to fraudulent “relief” funds granted to off-shore scammers and fraudsters who took advantage of the “free” money being passed around.
This just shows me how inept and incompetent they really are – they have no fkn idea how to handle a real emergency. Not set up for it. Not prepared for it. Not versed in it, despite trial exercises and game theory planning. It’s not the same thing when it really happens, which it most certainly did. And it was way overdue, and the real experts are saying it is going to happen again. I believe them.
Expecting politicians or COP26 to “deliver” is a fools game imo. These folks are afraid and unable to make the hard decisions that are necessary and overdue. Therefore, we’re simply NEVER going to get much from them in terms of innovation, leadership, decisive actions and clear direction. They contradicts themselves constantly. They defeat their own proposals with endless compromise. They refuse to cut where necessary and allow the corruption and pork to stay in place. Look at the so-called January 6th commission and the failure to arrest the conspirators, including Trump. It’s a shit show.
This is how democracies “work” in reality. They are all designed to protect the institution, and those within it. If you can rise up to the level of power where you are a component of the institutionalized apparatus, you’re set for life unless you really fuck up. I was almost there myself years ago. I had an unassailable position if I was just willing to cruse along and not make waves. They picked the wrong guy, and I don’t regret leaving after all of these years. But nothing has changed since then, it’s only gotten worse.
I admire your persistence. I could have never kept up the pressure like you have. I’d have washed my hands of these criminals long ago.