There’s been an unending series of bad news (unreported by me but available elsewhere). As expected, the sum-total of these developments continues on the same tragic course and what this means for human survival.
The following comments refer to Figure 224 below. All historical floating ice appears to have been lost in the Arctic by September 2015 so we can assume that the 5+ year old ice pack has largely gone by this time. The 5+ year old ice pack was only predicted to melt back by 2021.7 consequently this year’s volume of ice melting has occurred 6 years earlier than the previous prediction. The previous estimate of the final loss of 1 year Arctic floating ice from polynomial data was 2037.7 which now corrects to 2031.7, 16 years in the future.
Previous estimates of when the average atmospheric global temperature anomaly increase would reach 6°C was 2034.7, by which time massive global extinction would be proceeding. The new corrected time for this event is 2034.7 – 6 = 2028.7 which is 13 years in the future. During the major Permian Extinction event, which was caused by a massive methane build-up in the atmosphere, the mean surface atmospheric temperature increased by 5°C over 13 years. As the present mean global surface atmospheric temperature is already greater than 1°C hotter than the mean, we will be looking at at least a 6°C temperature increase by 2028 with its associated global extinction event. This is a frightening correlation between the new predicted 6°C average global surface atmospheric temperature rise and what is known to have occurred during the major Permian extinction event, both of which were caused by a massive buildup of methane in the atmosphere. We are clearly in for a very rough-hot ride in the next decade as the terminal global extinction event approaches.
Malcolm P.R. Light (Dr)
Warnings continue to go unheeded. 6C means most plants and agricultural production will be non-existent (dead). I’ve always said mass levels of starvation (of our species) will come LONG before extinction. Going underground will help in the short term, but it won’t do anything for the long term.
Note that 13 years is really soon – and it isn’t a begin date (that’s already happened) – it’s a mid-point date, mass extinctions well underway and totally irreversible.
Science constantly continues to update their estimates on how fast, how soon, how bad, and as state repeatedly here, it’s always worse and worse, sooner then previously thought.
Side note: very little rain here since last winter (next to none). Very unusual for heavily forested mountains which remain frightfully dry. Winter predictions are for extremely dry. Dangerous fire conditions remain through October and possibly through winter – which is unheard of. Normal snowfalls are 48″ to 60″ in the valleys and up to 30 feet in the mountains. Nobody knows how much precipitation will arrive but it’s already looking very bad.
Drought conditions continue to plague many of the primary agricultural producing regions on the country. I’ve already seen a number of price jumps for food supplies again, I always expect more.
It is my sincere opinion that humanity has already waited far too long to respond, choosing instead the path of denial, reluctance, reticence and disbelief. Yet none of these human behaviors have anything to do with physical or Earth science, the mechanics of the climate and what our scientists are now discovering and the existential threats we face.
The ongoing human disconnect from the horrifying unfolding reality and how this will dramatically affect our survival will soon result in extreme reactive measures encompassing all aspects of our society and civilization. Almost nobody (except the very rich) are preparing for this, preparing “billionaire bunkers”. These private efforts will only increase (as they must) because human survival will become increasingly at-risk. Yet it will not be sufficient because it does not address the cause.
Humanity DOES need to buy itself “time”, if we can – if we intend to survive, which is instinctive and innate. What we do not know is if we can.
I do not at all discount the efforts that will be made. As before, the “try” must be our response, precisely because that is the evolutionary response innate within us. I do not subscribe to nihilistic defeatism, which denies 400 million years of evolutionary development – a struggle which cannot be denied.
Nihilistic defeatism and the so-called “acceptance of our fate” is cloaked in self-righteousness (“we’re doing ‘good’ by going extinct”) and seeks to deny the extremely long evolutionary process that has produced us – what we are, how we got here – and precisely why we should try. The why should be obvious – a very long, torturous and risky evolutionary processes produced us.
Now, because of our cognitive abilities to obtain knowledge and understanding (also a product of our evolutionary development), we are the first species able to self-modify (behaviors, lifestyles, existence) through knowledge and choice. Therefore, the “decision” as it were is ours – to choose to continue to learn, and to choose to change and survive – and this “decision” was also already made for us by the long evolutionary process that produced us – our innate desire to survive, encoded within each and every one of us. But that same evolutionary process also gave us something else – the ability to choose – or not, to let “fate happen” while pretending we’re not scared or interested.
No species is immune to extinction, but then again, there has never been a species such as ours with the ability to regulate (or destroy) its environment or to gain such knowledge. I’m scared alright – who in their right mind wouldn’t be? But I’m not going to hide behind it or use this as a defense mechanism and go into denial. Instead, I opt to do what has always been done by evolution – try. Using both knowledge and choice, the human species must try – for as long as it can. Nobody knows the outcome of this needed try either – evolution has clearly proven that, so it is not important that we “know” what the outcome will be (it’s actually irrelevant).
Fortunately, the best minds in the world are still trying. Trying to figure out how we can solve this problem. Trying to understand what can be done. But they’re being opposed by defeatist and religious dogma, things that have plagued the species for millennia. These too are choices we’ve made, based upon a flawed understanding of the real world, but as we gained knowledge, we do not need to remain imprisoned by them, which unfortunately, we still are. Therefore, this means we can now, finally – also choose to ignore them. It’s obvious their traps, prisons of the mind, false constructs used to ensnare humanity and control billions of lives, which has come at a terrifying cost to human development and peace.
These impediments are not biological evolutionary developments – they’re sociological developments. But they are no longer needed and are in fact, they’ve become strong obstacles now to our very survival and ability to recognize and respond to the escalating threats ahead.
It is humans now which control their own destiny (whatever that may be), but we will still be affected and responsible for what we’ve already done to the environment (and continue to do). The Earth would have sustained our species for millions of years more (most likely), but our superstitions and folly drove us in the wrong directions, so now we must finally make an account for centuries of ignorance and stupidity. At stake is our very survival, but it has nothing to do with dogma or superstition – but it has everything to do with exactly how we arrived here, and what our responsibilities actually are.
There is a critical, and even fatal, lack of understanding of these points in our world today. Far too many humans still embrace yesterday’s superstitions and ignorance. They refuse knowledge, information and the self-development and awareness that this brings. They look for causes and reasons which are fanciful and imagined while refusing culpability and responsibility. This needs to stop because it has become a huge impediment to further development, and now – it also threatens our very survival by severely handicapping our ability to respond to a planetary crisis. Make no mistake – we either finally graduate beyond this period of human stupidity, folly and superstition – or we will die.
I can think of no other more tragic outcome of millions of years of evolutionary development then this (for the species) – to be literally ruined by stupidity. The Earth will go on without us, that has never been a question, but we will be lost. It is now imperative that we now choose the obvious – as the alternative is unacceptable.
It is not the Earth or nature or the climate that is killing us and threatening our very survival, it is human stupidity and the steadfast refusal to discard our errors and change our ways. If we fail now again to choose correctly then we have only ourselves to blame for what happens next.
As always, choose wisely – your future depends on it, and so does all of humanity.