This is a special edition and won’t be numbered. But for the record, this was written in late December 2009 and would be Newsletter issue 39 or 40 (already!), depending on when I publish. The dawn of a new decade is near, and in the spirit of this time of year, here are some decade predictions of what may happen in the next ten years.
I got this idea from Club Orlov. I’m not sure if this post was in jest or not, but if not, it was actually kind of weird. And if it was in jest, I guess I just don’t get it. As a “predictive post” I suspect it’s pretty inaccurate (which turned out to be true). Reality for the decade ahead will probably be much different.
I’ve read a few other too, and find I don’t agree with them either, but only because they have all failed to account for the devolution of civilization due to several critical factors.
What follows is a combination of my personal views and experience, based upon the developing trends within the world and news reports, my blog and past articles.
I will limit my commentary primarily to the next decade only, but some of these trends will undoubtedly take / last longer then a single decade.
Understand, I am quite serious about these expected events, this is not posted in jest at all, or any attempt at macabre humor. There is nothing humorous about 2010 – 2020 or the decade beyond. While this may or may not be informative or educational or even slightly helpful, it is the direction and place I think the world is going.
Whether these events actually happen remains to be seen, but the trends for all of them are here right now. Humanity remains by and large stupefyingly unaware of the widespread devastation and damage being caused throughout the world and the attacks upon personal freedoms, rights, protections and their ability to survive in this increasingly hostile world. I see no sincere evidence that this disposition and awareness of the average citizenry will change on a sufficient scale and scope to prevent our forthcoming collapse, nor do I see any real evidence that the ongoing environmental collapse and escalating effects of climate change having any “fix”. These will all only just get worse – no matter what anyone else claims to say.
Finally, if you do not think you can handle these views, please do not read them. Do not fear – I will return to your regularly scheduled programming in subsequent issues.
The Next Ten Years and Beyond
The next decade will see catastrophic changes of such scale and magnitude, that this decade of human history will forever be remembered as “the time of troubles“. There will be little parallel in past human history for comparison in scale, scope, size and significance except the decade following this one which portends to be even worse.
A fair number of us (humans) will probably be dead by 2020. This will be primarily the result of the following factors: internal strife, war, disease, plague, famine and extreme religious fundamentalism, terrorism and widespread violence. These events will begin immediately — starting in 2010 and continuing through the following decade.
The REAL root causes of these factors will be energy collapse, environmental collapse, resource collapse and financial collapse affecting every country of the world in the decade ahead. These are the collapsing dominoes that underpin our entire civilization. All have been widely abused and depleted even now, the next decade will see them falter further and undergo full-scale collapse in different regions of the world.
The event horizon is shrinking all of the time for human endeavors. What was once considered a “long ways off” isn’t anymore. Many people believe that a constant state of technological advancement will manage to wring out the sustenance (and lifestyle) that humans will need indefinitely. This view is only accurate when there is real invention and innovation, but much of what passes for technological development is just a new application. There are not that many real technology changes that are redesigning civilization. Most simply enhance existing technology in new ways.
The industrial revolution occurred precisely because of oil abundance and exploitation, and the technological revolution that we have only recently experienced was also its offspring. But what happens when the easy energy runs out? We go find more. Every technology is actually the downstream product of oil and probably always will be.
This is already happening now on a growing scale, and although peak oil field discoveries actually occurred in the 70’s, we have still managed to coast along up to this point by finding new sources of oil. But now, we cannot as major oil fields are now in collapse and “energy contraction” occurs with increasing and alarming frequency in the decades ahead.
This means that technology will not indefinitely save us, being entirely dependent upon energy sources for their invention, mining, manufacture and distribution within human society. In fact, technology will have become our Achilles heel that will eventually affect all of civilization in the decades ahead, due to it’s dependency upon fossil fuels, waste products and environmental destruction where the raw materials were originally sourced.
Within the next decade, our technological dependency will begin to falter in increasingly significant ways, some with terrifying negative effects (such as regional agriculture and transportation). We will make many attempts to find alternative energy sources, but it is extremely unlikely that any sufficient resource will be found. If, by chance, a resource is found and exploited, it will only help accelerate our global environmental and resource collapse.
Most energy alternatives recognized today will not sufficiently replace oil, nor provide portability or have the global infrastructure necessary, and some efforts will simply be abandoned, being deemed far too dangerous, or too expensive or too pollutive to further exploit.
We are very near or already at “peak civilization” as a result of this, as peak civilization is in fact, the apex of energy production. When energy declines, so will we — and everything that we have built and designed to use energy. All of our transportation systems, agricultural production, mining extraction, distribution and manufacturing and everything else will be increasingly impacted within the next decade, and we will search farther afield to find more.
From this point, we will be in permanent decline throughout the world. Do not forget that this is only the energy equation, we must still deal with environmental collapse, resource collapse and financial collapse too, and these are all intricately linked to energy availability and it’s distribution (sharing) world-wide. We are already far, far into overshoot on planetary capacity to support humanity. It is simply not possible for the world to grow much further without severe and debilitating impacts (collapse) occurring in regions least likely to maintain energy and environmental support.
Environmental collapse will accelerate around the world, despite undeniable evidence of our continuing infliction. Species extinctions will occur faster and faster then at any other time in earth’s history (including now). Resource collapse of critical and essential resources like water, soil, timber and minerals will also continue to accelerate. Everything to maintain world population levels and national control will be tried, all of which will continue the ongoing destruction of the earth. The very notion of “preservation” (no impact / no use) will fly out the window altogether as we desperately attempt to wring the last remaining resources to our advantage.
Most of the promises of science and medicine simply will not happen — ever. Whatever new developments we manage to actually achieve will be small, limited and of a “exclusive nature”, being unaffordable for the masses and simply unavailable. This will worsen in the decades ahead as civilization continues to devolve and wealth is found only in the hands of the rich. The rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer as the transfer of planetary capacity, production and value is exploited around the world.
Despair and desperation will take a terrible toll during these years. Government and public / private leaders from around the world will increasingly bicker and fight among themselves on what can be done as we devolve at every level of society due to these collapsing dominoes. New alliance of convenience and mutual need and protection will be forged and fought along the lines of energy and food resources, fresh water, arable land and available resources. Millions will die as a direct result of the ensuing wars as conflicts increase in afflicted regions.
Entire countries will be abandoned to their own devices for their survival as nations desperately hoard increasingly critical resources for themselves. Immigration / refugee will increase as people flee their collapsing areas. Primarily water and food will be the resource needed most as the climate continues to spiral wildly from the norm and crops collapse all over the world. But energy resources will be in increasingly short supply in some regions and will precipitate the collapse of entire economies.
2012 will be early and especially worrisome, as cultist behavior among various groups and individuals replaces common sense in the run-up to December 21st. Rage and riots will be replaced with despair when prophecy proves false (again). Suicides will be at an all-time high among easily influenced groups and people.
Hysteria within government, media, celebrities and pundits will create a frenzy of hatred and froth towards groups, governments and even individuals deemed ‘responsible’ for the growing crises around the world. In America, this hysteria will even achieve federal status of protection, as lawmakers “protect” the practice of hatred and xenophobia. Other countries will follow, believing themselves to be under attack from within. Symptomatic responses will be the earmark of this decade.
Politicians of all flavors will find it increasingly dangerous to remain in office and more then a few will be forcibly removed and assassinated. Political campaigns will resemble military conquest and domination as contenders “vie” for the prize they seek, armed to the teeth from the very people they claim to support. “Voting” will become a highly manipulated and controlled affair, as increasing privacy restrictions make simply being a citizen an unending application process.
Privacy and rights will be completely gone by the end of the decade, as fascist polices are layered higher and higher. Travel, purchasing, possession and even ownership will become increasingly restricted and controlled. The Internet will have been absorbed entirely into a Total Information Awareness network whereby all activities, browsing, buying and shopping will be highly controlled and manipulated. The free press will cease to exist except underground and through “monitored” outlets (manipulated).
By the end of the decade, American breadlines and homelessness will be of such huge size and significance that entire regions will be filled to the brim with the disenfranchised and hungry. Countries will collapse from within and cases of starvation, cannibalism, strife, war, disease and widespread crime and an unending sea of death will be the earmark of this era.
Draconian government policies will be brutally enforced in every nation of the world. Prisons will overflow and “internment camps” and concentration camps for “violators” will be widespread. Within these hell holes will be rampant disease, hunger, strife and the most miserable conditions, such as slavery, forced prostitution and organ harvesting for the few remaining wealthy who will secretly move from meetings to compounds, hiding behind hired mercenaries and private armies.
Gold will collapse as a means of exchange and measure of wealth. It is possible that this occurrence will take longer then a decade to play out on this issue. Historical precedence notwithstanding, more important elements and resources will replace gold as wealth. Land, oil, uranium, food and even water and fertilizer will be the “true wealth”. A new economic unit of monetary exchange will be employed and utilized throughout the world. This will ultimately be based upon energy units and will be exchanged throughout the world. Wall Street will utterly collapse.
The green movement will collapse as desperation and despair overcomes any attempts at conservation. Human rights will take a backseat throughout the world as does democracy and justice, all to be replaced with increasingly violent fascism and waves of desperation and ill-planned “recovery” efforts.
Rioting will break out in many, many cities of the world as the “common people” rebel with increasing levels of violence against world leaders and organizations. The middle class as we have known it today will have entirely disappeared. Entire groups will be wiped out in brutal campaigns of oppression and violence, and this in turn will be met with political and private assassinations and covert guerrilla warfare in many parts of the world.
War will break out, again and again, with India, Pakistan, South America, Israel, China and Asia taking center stage in increasingly bloody conflicts — all of which will have participation and even instigation by the United States which will still be trying to retain military superiority and control. Russia will attack several of its neighboring countries, in aggression and in self-defense from hostile actions. The United Nations will be replaced with a new world body of government and will prove to be just as powerless and ineffectual as ever.
Environmental and climate collapse will reach critical crisis levels throughout the world. This will be largely ignored as human desperation increases exponentially and will continue to take precedence over the environment. Scientists and climatologist, anthropologists and leading researchers will unsuccessfully try to convince humanity that our self-destructive path is the true root cause of the collapse. Symptomatic efforts by governments will singularly fail to resolve anything.
Private mercenary groups will become increasingly common and will be used throughout the world, even in the United States to protect their employers. Private security walled “compounds” encompassing well-to-do neighborhoods will be increasingly common in an desperate attempt to seal out crime and “undesirables”. Racism and xenophobia will become very widespread. Over 40 million Americans will be homeless or near-homeless and they will occupy large tracts of declining cities, taking them over and creating a new subclass of Americans.
This will be the “ghetto guild”, comprised of the destitute, including the formerly affluent and well-to-do, the insane and the criminal class. These areas will resemble third-world countries within our own borders as we know them today, and they will realign themselves much like prisons do today, based upon racial lines and segregation. This will be a decade of “combustion”, an inflammatory period where a single spark will lead to a conflagration within. Rampant crime of all sorts will spiral totally out of control.
This will be repeated in developed and under-developed countries throughout the world. Refugees from impoverished nations or nations / regions devastated by climate change / economic collapse will pack many cities beyond capacity. Many of these people will be forcibly removed to the developing refugee ghettos. These areas will be hell holes of human habitation and desperation as few resources will be available. The lifespan of humankind will plummet dramatically. Fake government statistics on everything from crime to economy will be widely employed.
The Arctic will come under increasing “attack” from speculators and energy hungry nations and multinationals, with the likely outcome being war over discovered resources. Climate change will be so severe that the face of the world will be barely recognizable at the end of this decade. There will be no more summer ice in the Arctic, making it “clear” for exploration and exploitation by energy corporations.
Deforestation and over-fishing leading to ocean collapse and widespread species extinction throughout the world will continue to increase dramatically as the sheer demand for food and materials will remain in extreme demand despite attempts at bans and moratoriums. Pirate fishing and deliberate over-fishing will decimate entire food chains within the oceans.
Illegal organ harvesting will explode as corruption permeates the medical industry and kidnappings of citizens and prisoners for body parts rises exponentially. This will expand from current corrupt governments and regions to most parts of the world.
The decade of 2010 – 2020 will be bad, very bad. However, 2020 and beyond will be even worse. Whatever predicted in the previous decade is sure to occur in the following decade. During this time is when die-off of immense magnitude commences in earnest as entire nations utterly collapse, having run out of all options and available resources to maintain populations.
We are only just now at the “beginnings” of trouble in reality, it will be quite some time before we decrease ourselves to a sustainable level where it is simply too expensive and costly for us to continue to fight and kill each other as before. But in reality, we are a long ways away from that point — figure at least an entire generation from right now of down-slope and death on all fronts. Between now and then, it will be brutal, bloody and violent.
This will NOT be easy, and we will not go “quietly into the night”, but will scratch and claw and bite our way through titanium plating in an effort to stay alive. This is not unknown to the world’s government and leaders, who are already aligning themselves with weaponry and alliances to secure for themselves the best places and “chess pieces” necessary for the decades ahead. Resource hoarding and control is already quite common and these elements will be the trade / business of the future, all else will proceed from that.
Die-off is a bottom-up phenomena affecting the lowest rungs of the human socioeconomic ladder first.
It is now 2009 and this evidence is already available. The poor, disenfranchised and economically depressed and environmentally affected will create a huge refugee class, which will increasingly compete for scarcer and scarcer resources without the means to pay for them or obtain them. And there will in fact be little the world can or will effectively do for them beyond lip-service. Not enough people will have made any or sufficient preparations to deal with any of this, and this will lead to rampant crime, desperation and die-off.
Those most unprepared / disenfranchised (poor and economically depressed) are and will be the first to die as the world’s human condition devolves. The aristocratic and wealthy will persevere the longest, having the most means and money to do so, but will be increasingly hated and targeted by the underclasses. They will respond in kind with everything from legislation to outright brutality.
See Warning To The World, The Top Reasons For Societies Collapse, Collapse of the USA, and finally, The Answer. All these and more past writings are supporting views of mine in line with this “decade prediction”.