Scientist Were Wrong About Global Warming
1,659 ViewsWorld climate experts have got some egg on the faces. As it turns out, they were wrong about global warming. It is not occurring as they predicted.
Even the IPSCC report is wrong. Their predictions on global warming are also quite mistaken.
Satellite imagery and on-site investigation has now revealed the truth: Global warming is far worse then anyone imagined or predicted.
The reality is much, MUCH worse than the scientific consensus predicted. The arctic ice cap is melting decades faster than expected. DECADES. Scientific Consensus Proved Wrong
This is exactly what I’ve been saying on this blog for years now, claiming that the results and measurements we’ve been measuring, have taken decades to reveal themselves, but what we were measuring was incorrect. We failed to interpret the data correctly.
Gigantic “Niagra size moulins” (melt holes) dumping millions of gallons of water have been discovered in the Greenland ice.
I doubt the average person understands the significance of these developments, but they will, soon.
The glacier is now moving at 15 kilometres a year into the sea although in periodic surges it moves even faster. He has seen a surge, which he had measured as moving five kilometres in 90 minutes - an extraordinary event. Ice Caps Melting Fast
The Arctic sea ice is disintegrating “100 years ahead of schedule”, having dropped 22% this year below the previous minimum low, and it may completely disappear as early as the northern summer of 2013. This is far beyond the predictions of the International Panel on Climate Change and is an example of global warming impacts happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly than projected. The Big Melt
Carbon Equity also has a downloadable .pdf file on this.
Executive Summary
• Climate change impacts are happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly than projected.
• The Arctic’s floating sea ice is headed towards rapid summer disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections.
• The rapid loss of Arctic sea ice will speed up the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, and a rise in sea levels by even as much as 5 metres by the turn of this century is possible. [Wrong! It will be MUCH worse then this, see below]
• The Antarctic ice shelf reacts far more sensitively to warming temperatures than previously believed.
• Long-term climate sensitivity (including “slow” feedbacks such as carbon cycle feedbacks which are starting to operate) may be double the IPCC standard. [At least double]
• A doubling of climate sensitivity would mean we passed the widely accepted 2°C threshold of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate four decades ago, and would require us to find the means to engineer a rapid drawdown of current atmospheric greenhouse gas. [Can’t be done. Only thing we could do would be stop emitting them, causing global economic collapse instantly]
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are now growing more rapidly than “business-as-usual”, the most pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios. [Told you so!]
• Temperatures are now within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years.
• We must choose targets and take actions that can actually solve the problem in a timely manner. [Optimistic bullshit]
• The object of policy-relevant advice must be to avoid unacceptable outcomes and seemingly extreme or alarming possibilities, not to determine just the apparently most likely outcome. [Political CYA!]
• The 2°C warming cap is a political compromise; with the speed of change now in the climate system and the positive feedbacks that 2°C will trigger, it looms for perhaps billions of people and millions of species as a death sentence. [A foregone conclusion already]
• To allow the reestablishment and long-term security of the Arctic summer sea ice it is likely to be necessary to bring global warming back to a level at or below 0.5°C (a long-term precautionary warming cap) and for the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases at equilibrium to be brought down to or below a long-term precautionary cap of 320 ppm CO2e.
• The IPCC suffers from a scientific reticence and in many key areas the IPCC process has been so deficient as to be an unreliable and dangerously misleading basis for policy-making.
Commentary from Lonewolf:
The coefficient of thermal expansion for sea water is about 0.00021 (fractional volume change per degree C). Because the length and width of an ocean basin does not change as the ocean is heated slightly, volume also describes the change in height as the water warms or cools.
The depth of the oceans is 3800 meters (mean elevation of Earth surface (not just the oceans, the entire Earth) is below sea level = - 2400 meters
“According to the IPCC, measurements since 1993 show that the thermal expansion of water is responsible for 1.6 mm of the annual rise and other melting glaciers and ice caps for 0.77 mm. (0.41 mm of which being from Greenland and Antarctica)” ‘meaning’ that [more than half of] the total sea level rise is due to thermal expansion effects (not ice melt).
The vast majority of articles I seen merely calculate the volumetric effect of land based melt (glaciers, ice caps) and apparently ignores thermal expansion. Meaning that actual sea level rise could be more than double (and sea level rise twice as fast) than that which can be attributed to ice melting off land.
Do you understand? Scientist were wrong about the speed of the global ice melt — and the amount of volume it’s thermal expansion will create as it enters into the oceans. Thus, the rise of the world’s oceans could be more then double what has been predicted.
This would easily displace over one billion people worldwide, causing trillions in property damage, create global famine, destroy ocean fisheries and coral reefs worldwide and eradicate entire coastlines and islands throughout the globe forever.
Any coastal lands, or even inland land, that has access to the coast with a elevation of less then 100 feet could be affected. The increased level and intensity of hurricanes and ’sea surge’ could make low-lying lands very dangerous. This represents a huge portion of the world’s inhabitable lands today.
The world as we know it would be TOAST. Dry land will heat up more and more as the cooling effects of the ice caps disappear. The same flooding and rising of sea level will destroy huge segments of the world’s forests, which help regulate our climate and air quality. A negative feedback loop will enable this to get worse and worse.
And here’s the final punch line — it’s now “ordained”. A foregone conclusion that this will happen, is happening, because these events are unstoppable and now already past their trigger points.
Those gigantic moulins they’re measuring right now, those took a long time to develop and reveal themselves. But now that we know about them, “It is too late already.”
This should be world breaking news headlines all over the world, with immediate and drastic acknowledgement and action taken by world leaders and the planet’s citizens. I’m not being the slightest alarmists — nothing less then a full-blown worldwide effort to save ourselves will have a glimmer of a hope in succeeding.
This would require an immediate shutdown of all greenhouse gas emissions and industrial activity worldwide.
Of course, this won’t happen. It can’t possibly be allowed to happen. And even if it were to happen, it’s very uncertain it would make any difference anyway.
So, if you are still unconvinced and still waiting on a lightning bolt from God to wake you from your slumber, I suggest you take a trip to Greenland with that gold stash of yours and examine what scientists are now telling us — we’re toast, swirling around a giant moulin drain as the glacier of civilization gone wrong rumbles toward the sea.
October 11th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future.
Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earth vs climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects. They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates.
See More
A LONG RECORD OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGES—Ice cores extracted from the two-mile thick Greenland ice sheet preserve records of ancient air temperatures. The records show several times when climate shifted in time spans as short as a decade.
The Younger Dryas—about 12,700 years ago, average temperatures in the North Atlantic region abruptly plummeted nearly 5°C and remained that way for 1,300 years before rapidly warming again.
The 8,200-Year Event—A similar abrupt cooling occurred 8,200 years ago. It was not so severe and lasted only about a century. But if a similar cooling event occurred today, it would be catastrophic.
The Medieval Period—An abrupt warming took place about 1,000 years ago. It was not nearly so dramatic as past events, but it nevertheless allowed the Norse to establish settlements in Greenland.
The Little Ice Age—The Norse abandoned their Greenland settlements when the climate turned abruptly colder 700 years ago. Between 1300 and 1850, severe winters had profound agricultural, economic, and political impacts in Europe. (R.B. Alley, from The Two-Mile Time Machine, 2000)
If too much fresh water enters the North Atlantic, its waters could stop sinking. The Great Conveyor would cease. Heat-bearing Gulf Stream waters would no longer flow into the North Atlantic, and winters would become more severe.
It has happened, it does happen and it will happen after we are long gone. While we are here though and look’in like we might have to go through some altering weather it would be best to get prepared for the worse. If that is possible,as we don’t really know what the worse will be…
Be seeing you…
October 11th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Geewhiz - guess we better get ready, huh? I think most of us’ns are already onboard; something like: multiply the “experts’” estimation by 2 or 3, and you might have the best case scenario to work with. My humble advice - get on with your plans ASAP, and BUY MORE FOOD!!! Admin has what you need - just get it.
October 12th, 2007 at 7:48 am
Check out this story. This judge in England has ruled that these observations of nature get it all wrong (link):
This word ‘consensus’ is very disturbing and getting old. That implies even one climate researcher could dissent and it can be claimed there is no consensus. But when the leading scientists and overwhelming majority agree, you don’t need to listen??!!
October 12th, 2007 at 8:02 am
“See, all those gee-whiz egg-head scientist types got it wrong after all! How can we even believe them now? There’s no global climate change occurring, and even if it was its all a naturally occurring phenomenon, not our faults in any way! Now, I’ve got to go do my patriotic duty and by a lot of cheap plastic crap shipped halway around the world, buy a big safe Hummer H8 Earth f***er, tune in Rush Limbaugh on the satellite radio, and continue with business as usual.”
October 12th, 2007 at 8:12 am
One final (and I do mean final) note - Most of Greenland’s land mass is actually below sea level. Compressed by billions of metric tons of ice and snow for tens of thousands of years, most of the actual “earth” beneath the thousands of feet of heaped up ice and snow in the interior is actually a big bowl.
Melting icecap will allow seawater intrusion underneath, effectively “floating” off most of what remains, rapidly accelerating the collapse.
Further, Greenland’s mass of ice and snow effectively creates it’s own weather, cooling approaching warm fronts, freezing approaching moisture, and insulating the land mass from significant seasonal variations. No other landmass at the same latitude is capped with ice, and neither will Greenland be once the icepack degrades to the degree that it can no longer resist seasonal variations and incremental weather. The day it rains on Greenland will be the end.
October 13th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
I have to say that I don’t quite understand the thermal expansion argument as it relates to swamping coastlines. By definition the water depth on coasts is virtually nil, so the sea level rise at the coasts due to thermal expansion would be imperceptible, even if it was significant over the deepest part of the ocean. Am I missing something?
October 13th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Ah, wait. If the total volume of water increases, then yes, the coastlines can be swamped. I get it now.
October 14th, 2007 at 11:41 am
Came across a few stats I’ll share:
- more than half of all Americans ‘live’ (exist) within 50 miles of the ocean.
- more than half of all Americans ‘live’ (exist) within 30 miles of a coal-fired power plant
- more than half of all Americans ‘live’ (exist) within 10 miles of a superfund site
Simple deduction indicates that more than half of all superfund sites are within 60 miles of the ocean. In fact, I’ll bet that more than half of all superfund sites are within 40 miles of the ocean (perhaps within 10-20 since 90+% of chemical plants and refineries are sited directly on the shore).
I’ll also bet that more than 2/3’s of all (current) cemetaries are within 50 miles of the ocean.
So, were will they all go as sea level rises?
IMO nowhere. More than half of Americans now ‘alive’ will be dead from starvation, disease, violence, suicide, or incarcerated in Camp Cheney(s) long before sea level would force them to relocate inland. There will be ample unoccupied shelters available for would-be coastal ’survivors’.
That’s the ‘good news’. The ‘bad news’ is that virually NO ONE is even listening - or remotely ‘wants to’ hear anything except for the neverending fairy tale playing out on the movie screen of their euphamistic ‘minds’. And absoultely NO one is actually doing anything to so much as save their own or their childrens ‘butts’ much less to ’save’ the human race from itself. It is absolutely disgusting that ‘we’ humanoids (individually and collectively) consider ourselves to be sentient and intelligent.
Bye bye bushing bipeds.
October 15th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
Hurricanes will continue to worsen as long as global warming continues to increase the risk factor that it has shown so far because of heat temperatures that increase the ocean waters, buy as early as 2013 if another major hurricane hit this could wipe out a good chunk of the U.S.
October 16th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Here is a poignant quote about those denying AGW (link):