At What Point Do We Stop Eating?
4,415 ViewsThere is a “must see” new article over at the Oil Drum. Lonewolf sent me this link and the data below.
Using the data from the Drum, a 1% per year decline in oil output until 2010, which then drops 4% a year. Within 4 years from today, gasoline could be over $10 a gallon - at which point it all falls down (agriculture, housing, transportation, everything).
Hope everyone is paying attention - it’s about to get mighty rough. However, not many people can see what is happening. There is a disconnect in too many minds what the price of oil means and the price of consumer goods.
What this chart represents is several things: how much time is left; how high gasoline can go; and what unending demand can really mean for our civilization. We can also infer what the costs of goods will be using this chart by projecting these figures across the price of oil-dependent consumer goods.
Since oil represents the processing, manufacturing and distribution of almost all goods in production today, price increases in oil will also affect the price of these goods. However, the relationship is not 1:1, it’s much higher then that in reality.
Here’s the real kicker: “In the 1970s, a reduction [in oil production] of just 5 per cent caused a price increase of more than 400 per cent.”
That’s 80:1 ‘against the house’ or for every 1% supply constriction equates to 80% inflation. Worse, by 2010 we’re talking 4% restriction, or 360% inflation, per year.
There’s more:
Most farming equipment is either built in oil-powered plants or uses diesel as fuel. Nearly all pesticides and many fertilisers are made from oil. Most plastics, used in everything from computers and mobile phones to pipelines, clothing and carpets, are made from oil-based substances. Manufacturing requires huge amounts of fossil fuels. The construction of a single car in the US requires, on average, at least 20 barrels of oil. Most renewable energy equipment requires large amounts of oil to produce. Metal production - particularly aluminium - cosmetics, hair dye, ink and many common painkillers all rely on oil.
At these rates, nothing is going to be affordable for much longer, except the superfluous “junk” that everyone has collected and will now desperately try to sell off to stay alive.
We will see absolutely HUGE price increases for essential goods at these rates. I almost dare not project how high they could go. We just had a 300% price increase in powdered milk. Milk is a byproduct of oil production (dairy farming), reliant upon huge energy inputs from “cheap” oil. Most of what we consume is the same, intricately linked to the cost of oil.
This is scary news indeed. The cost of simply staying alive will soon be unaffordable except for the wealthy. This ties directly into what I share here: The Importance Of Cooperation - Soon To Be Essential.
Finally, I’d like to emphasize one other final point: It’s wrong to assume that we will be alright up to a certain point in time, say 2010 or so when “things become unaffordable”. ALL future essential purchases will be at increasingly higher inflation rate. In other words, they will NEVER be cheaper then they are right now.
The only things that might go down in price are those things that will suffer a massive price correction. Housing may come down (as inflation continues to destroy the dollar). Unless alternative energy technology enjoys a massive breakthrough in production costs, this too will never be more “affordable” then it is today [it’s not affordable today, but it’s a good example]. Everything (most things) that will not be affected by economic collapse or the housing collapse will keep going higher and higher. But it’s unlikely that wages will follow.
This information should be used as a strategy for your future planning, to be enacted immediately. Liquidate, consolidate and downsize now. Gather the essentials and supplies that you’re going to need before they too become unaffordable. Power down and gear down and learn to live without gasoline. Create, cooperate and communicate with others for shared land, resources, labor and finances.
Time is running out.
July 23rd, 2007 at 2:43 am
Indeed it is running out. And I also feel that it’s a “best case” scenario of depletion rates the oil drum is presenting to us here. If the world depletion rate happens to become anything like the North Sea/Mexico/Dubai to mention some, it will be much quicker and prices go much higher.
As I’ve seen in someone’s signature: “The future is history.”
July 23rd, 2007 at 6:28 am
Also, if we do in fact attack Iran, all bets are off. Things could deteriorate rapidly in the whole region. I don’t even want to think of what prices of oil, and then everything else, might be in this scenario. Get your food now!
July 23rd, 2007 at 7:57 am
Can I make a confession? I have seen only 1 individual among thousands who is taking this seriously when it came to food preparation. Just 1 (I’m not including myself). This guy came in and bought all the food he would need for the rest of his life, and it makes perfect sense. Everyone else is acting like food is going to get affordable again (somehow).
There are others who are planning on growing some of their own food, but this will be problematic during the collapse for sure, you’ll be an instant target.
And almost nobody is planning for a non-electric, non-gasoline, non-transportation future. I find this scary as hell. At some future point in the not-too-distant future, none of these things will be even remotely affordable.
July 23rd, 2007 at 8:00 am
If one ‘plugs in’ the 80% ‘inflation’ per percentage point decline in supply relationship into TOD’s supply constriction estimates, by 2012 unleaded gasoline is $720/gallon (excluding potential factors such as an attack on Iran, USD devaluation vis a vis world currencies, imposition of marital law, Pakistani coop hands Islamic-fundies “The Bomb” (X-ian fundies effectively have many nukes), radical crop failures, ETC)
As Monte at PO said reently, “Get very prepared for a war footing”.
This IS War, people. War is ugly. In war, people die. Lots of people. All suffer, in our case, without end (their can/will be NO resolution, NO return to ‘civilization’ as we knew it). Get ready [yesterday] for panic, extreme violence, cruelty and unimaginable suffering as TSHTF in a way that the masses finally notice (i.e. in their stomachs/wallets). Far less than 1% of the US poplulous is remotely (minimally) prepared for even a short term ‘down turn’ - or ever will be. Scared starving bipeds are the most dangerous variety and void of any/all rationality. If you have -insert anything consumable here-, they WILL come. Coming soon to a theater (of war) near you.
July 23rd, 2007 at 8:47 am
Personally, I now have about 3 years of food storage on hand (perhaps 4 years with rationing), if I can keep it from being ‘confiscated’ that is. And I’m adding to my protein storage (in case lots) with every trip to town. This could very well last me the remainder of my ‘unnatural’ life - or at least for a ‘duration’ I would ‘want’ to live under a collapse scenario. I’m too old and decrepit already to go into true “survival mode” and I know it (accept reality). I do not have a ‘next generation’ to maintain/support/prepare. I also know where there is another 5+ years of food stored (very locally) and there is ‘no way in hell’ that this (crazy) person would last even a month in a crash event - even absent marauders, which is highly dubious at best. (Obviously, one primary ‘trick’ to being a successful marauder is being the first to show up - where it counts.) Realistically, just how long can a person (or a family/tribe) stand watch and guard their critical provisions 24/7/365 (and/or capability to grow) - successfully - NTM to do so without access to energy for ALL of it’s utilitarian benefits/purposes. I’ve never ‘planned’ to live forever - nor would I want to. Already, this is not the Country I ‘inherited’ (was raised in) and the entire planet is starting to implode (devolve) - human and non-humanoid ‘worlds’ alike. Furthermore, without continuing access to drugs (medications, medical ‘care’), just how long could I - or you - ‘tolerate’ living. Obviously (AKA ominously), water and food are critical to living yet these are far from the only long-term requirements for living - or at least for a life as I knew it.
July 23rd, 2007 at 10:08 am
You and I both know that the collapse will require you to abandon all thoughts of growing food. Forgetaboutit. People are going to have to crawl into a hole and hide until die-off slows down dramatically and then resume subsistence living. If there are any viable seeds left. If not, it will be hunter / gatherer / forager for a (long) while.
July 23rd, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Yep, I know it - but few if any others seem to ‘appreciate’ the ‘nature’ of pending reality. Delusions of things such as “lifeboats”, Arks, survival homesteads and “sustainable” gardens are just that - delusional - in the face of starving masses and roving hordes of desperate bipeds (I don’t ‘care’ where one is located). And, you are also correct about seed viabilty even assuming ‘proper’ future growing conditions, adequate skill set, abundant effort (work) and consistent LUCK are ALL ‘on your side’. Conditions now ‘unfolding’ (revealed) in Zimbabwe (and RSA) will soon spread to the entire global populus - IMO. Then, TSHTF for real. Try as we might, we can not begin to grasp what the future will present/hold.
July 23rd, 2007 at 5:27 pm
I am having trouble reconciling the comments to this post with the previous article “The Importance of Cooperation–Soon to be Essential.” If we are going to have to “crawl into a hole and hide until die-off slows down…” how can we also “join forces or families together” to “take advantage of shared costs for land, housing, water and gardening, and such things as necessary development, protection, defense, transportation and work load.”
This is a major stumbling block in my mind, and I imagine others are having trouble with it too. I’m beginning to look for land and it is absolutely critical I get a handle on this!
July 23rd, 2007 at 5:44 pm
Admin and I have spoken to this question before and I’ll let him speak for himself (it is his blog).
I envision 3 distinct phases each having a distinct/unique (appropriate) response strategy.
The 3 phases are: Pre-crash, Collapse, Post-crash
Each to their own devices WRT appropriatness selecion between the various coping strategies (cognitive dissonance will soon no longer be effective, for generations if not an Age).
July 23rd, 2007 at 6:20 pm
It’s a fair question for sure. I am in agreement with Lonewolf here, the need to distinctly identify different levels of response and requirements at each phase. As he shared, there are three loosely identified. This was covered on the forum some time past. Pre-collapse is the time when preparations are to be made (right now). This includes all the skills, training, supplies, land and cooperation you can obtain. This is the time for people working together, if possible. As the collapse deepens as it is now, the things everyone needs is getting more expensive and eventually, unobtainable. Sharing the workload, finances, land, materials and common “goods” needed for two or more makes sense.
In time, the shortages will trigger a full blown collapse. Or martial law will, it could be anything. I’m not trying to predict what comes first, I’m simply trying to categorize the different phases. But at some point in time, it will be chaotic with anarchy in the streets. There is simply no way that the collapse will be peaceful, because severe shortages will trigger a violent response in people. Other things could trigger this too, such as martial law and Americans finally get off their butts and fight back. But I digress.
This phase is the collapse phase, when it will be dangerous to be alive. The best defense will be to be “unfound” by the hungry horde, if possible (not
easy). Nobody can really store enough food to feed all of their neighbors, who are most definitely NOT preparing for anything (I should know, being in this business myself, you would be surprised at how few people are aware of what is coming down and even fewer who are making any preparations). This will mean, due to oil collapse, economic collapse, war, shortages, whatever, that there will be vast numbers of hungry people. We’re talking millions and millions and millions (hundreds of millions).
The stores only stock a 3 day food supply now. The food chain relies upon “just in time delivery” systems, all dependent upon good climate, cheap oil and an existing, operating infrastructure with no significant problems. There is little likelihood any of this will be functional during the collapse phase. If it is, it will be in fits and starts and not reach everyone, everywhere, making for hunger, starvation and desperation.
A million hungry people will tear a city to shreds, and everyone in it. They will pour out into the countryside and rape the natural resources blind looking for something to eat. Most wildlife will be killed off, rapidly, with a lot of waste and wanton slaughter. Farmers, gardeners and people that are known to have food storage will become instant targets, as hungry people overwhelm these places by the hundreds, even thousands. Roving bands and gangs will form, subjegating and suppressing any that they come against. The military will be unable to prevent this from happening and the local law enforcement will be inadequate.
This is a simple gauge of numbers. There are for example, several million military personnel in this country (most overseas right now, but they won’t always be there). There are also a several more million law enforcement personnel. Many of these will be saving their own hides during this time, some will be on the job and trying to prevent the anarchy, but it won’t be enough. Americans only obey now because they are well fed, when this stops, watch out, it will change violently, rapidly and without mercy. This has been the case before. Starvation will bring out terrible things in people.
This period of collapse will be the most dangerous. People will need to defend themselves if they can, and to hide as long as they can from the hungry hordes. Some will try to feed and help others, but this will probably backfire because others will hear of the free food and will quickly overwhelm such
“services”. This is a terrible tragedy, but you only have to look as far as the starving hordes in Africa and the warlords operating there to realize what can happen here. And it will be even worse, because we are not talking about a local problem, but a global problem. No country on earth will be unaffected, although some countries will be affected more then others, like America.
Americans are proud, arrogant and basically dumbed down to the point where they believe it is their God given right to take what they want. This will
explode during the collapse phase. Toss decency, respect, humility and morality out the window. It is no accident that our military is being trained to
torture, maim and kill woman and children. Nor is it any accident that our young people are apathetic, indifferent and callous. All these people will be
walking among us, hungry, desperate and violent.
During this collapse phase, cooperation with trusted others will be essential. But not always possible. Cognitive dissonance will still create dissension
about “what to do” in a million different situations. Some will want to stay and fight, others will want to run and hide. Many different and difficult
situations will come up that will divide the best of friends. Bottom line is, everyone will do what seems right to them in the end. Some will stick together (if they have anybody), others will join forces, many will have so little trust with anyone else they’ll try to go it alone. But the violence will be raging around them all during this time.
Hiding make the most sense (avoid the fight). It’s terrible to say, but the hunger is not really anyone’s fault, nor will the violence that comes from this. I’m not making excuses, but hungry people will be desperate and will do desperate things. Hardly anyone really realizes what the collapse of oil means (food collapse).
Moving on - the cooperation I wrote will need to encompass pre-collapse, collapse and post-collapse phases, if possible. But it won’t be easy. You may not be able to defend your land, your homestead, your retreat, your “safe haven” you prepared. If you can’t - then don’t. Why defend what cannot be defended?
Come back again and fight another day if you must. Better, fade away and let the die-off commence. Go someplace safe and let the hordes fight it out amongst themselves. They won’t last long. Most don’t know how to stay alive and will quickly fall victims themselves. Others will “rise to the top” and become leaders in their groups (just like they are doing now in Africa). They will try to command and commandeer whatever they can - food, fuel, woman, guns, medicine, supplies. It will be an ugly time.
Some will join such groups as a means of survival, others won’t. Entire areas will become sparsely populated as the dead pile up from self-inflicted
violence, hunger, disease and injury. This will pose severe problems for sickness and plague. Staying away from all of this will be paramount for as long as it takes. This could be a year, but probably several more then that, even a decade, hard to say. But whatever it takes, being caught up into this maelstrom will probably mean you will die too.
Post-collapse is when the die-off and violence has subsided. This is when cooperation and communication with others will also be needed. The need to work together again to rebuild shattered lives. I don’t say “rebuild civilization” because that isn’t what I mean or intend. I mean rebuild whatever is
necessary so that you and they can survive again and not resort to violence and fighting amongst yourselves. This is the time that crops can be planted again (if there are any viable seeds left at this point) and labor-intensive agriculture can begin again. This is also the time that the wildlife may come back after being wiped out.
Ideally, in a best case scenario, you and your friends will have survive this all somehow. You will be a “tribe” of sorts, and have forged strong, tight
relationships of trust, loyalty and sharing. Or not. Those that don’t cooperate with others probably won’t make it. They will be easy picking after the
anarchy starts because they simply cannot be on their guard 24/7/365 days a year. Too easy to be picked off by anyone, maybe even your best friend who thinks he’ll be better off without you. So it will be critically important to forge trusting relationships now. Family is the place to start, and people that already know you. Outsiders are the hardest of all as you’ll quickly discover.
It (probably) doesn’t have to be this way - but it probably WILL be for several reason. Too little is being done too late, which makes these scenarios very, very likely now. Governments and politicians alike are still in denial, just like most people. They do not realize that history is simply repeating itself again, except this time, magnified a billion times over.
There’s too little being done on a national or global scale. Some things will be tried, such as nationalization of assets (food, land, water, medicine, etc.) and drafting people into work camps and such like, but it won’t work. People will rebel against such tactics, and quite frankly, there are too many of us to try and support without plentiful, cheap energy. We’re about to find out how foolish our culture and civilization has been all these years. We should have minded ourselves much more circumspectly then we have.
That only took me about 10 minutes to write! There’s much, much more, but that’s it in a nutshell.
Also read “The Answer“, the “Future Prep” series, “The Consensus Trance“, all of the “Collapse Blog” entries, and everything else you can get your hands on.
Finally, make up your own mind about what you intend to do - it’s now extremely clear that you’re the only one that can save yourself, nobody else is going to be doing it for you. These warnings of mine are largely falling on deaf ears - there’s nothing I can do about that.
July 24th, 2007 at 4:30 am
Excellent comment, Admin, worthy of its own post.
Over on Life After The Oil Crash (not quite as pessimistic as the consensus here, but more so and more realistic than, say, The Oil Drum or similar), the general opinion is that the government response will be to create “Fedghettos”.
Fedghetto: An urban area run as a Totalitarian Police and Welfare State by the central Government as a way to support the bloated population after the collapse of the Cornucopian Age. These may be called something along the lines of “Emergency Housing Districts”, “Enhanced Security Zones”, or “Warm and Fuzzy All American Apple Pie and Definitely Not Concentration Camps We Promise Happy Places”. For your security, there will be check-points to keep terrorists out. You’ll be asked to leave all weapons at home, where they’ll be safe as the National Guard watches over your neighborhood. It’s only a temporary situation, after all….
These will be the “Inside” you’ve talked about previously, FEMA-style work camps where you’ll trade freedom for minimal needs being met.
July 24th, 2007 at 6:27 am
Very good article. However, I don’t necessarily buy the numbers. Not saying they aren’t indiciative of where we’re headed, just that numbers are numbers and inconsequential in the end. I agree entirely with the premise: that the numbers will be high enough to put most items out of reach for average Joe.
Unless WW-III breaks out, I expect the slow-slide model. Worst possible scenario in a way because it allows government to grow and morph into an oppressive arm of the elite.
Charles Bowden wrote a very good book. Want to know what ou future will look like? No need to speculate. It exists, right across the bridge from El Paso Texas.
Juarez: The Laboratory of our Future
http://www.amazon.com/Juarez-Laboratory-Future-Charles-Bowden/dp/0893817767/ref=sr_1_1/105-0020661-3722801?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185281765&sr=1-1
Here you find walled in castles with some of the world’s richest people. They drive the latest European sports cars, wear the latest designer clothes, have servants that tend to every need. Fly around the world when not home.
A sub-class tends to their needs. Doctors, drivers, lawn men etc. Factories sppplying government supported jobs with what amount to slave wages, ringed with razor wire and high security provide jobs for the next level. Outside of the wire, total chaos reigns.
Police, army guard the rich and their property. Predators (criminals and police) feast on the poor. Bullying, rape, torture, theft: none of these are of concern to those in power, as long as they are done in the shanty towns of the poor.
Lawyers do what lawyers do: guard the rich and their possessions and write laws that enable them to maintain their advantage.
Huge slums cover outlying areas: houses made of discarded palets, sheets of tin and scraps of tar paper with no running water. Most don’t have electricity, those that do are stealing it from the power lines that pass by. Literally hundreds of wires cover the ground, some live some not, all attempts to “steal” power. The site of someone burned to death trying to install one of these is a common occurence.
People mine dumps.
on and on. Read the book. And weep.
I think the one difference will be agriculture. I envision a takeover of farms (that has been ongoing for some time now). Those that sign up for the government subsidy programs will get dyed diesel that cannot be used on roads to grow food with. The rest do without and are left with livestock if lucky–if not then with a hoe.
People will continue to farm. There will be no widespread chaos because chaos will be met with bullets and high tech weapons–not those of private citizens but of the army.
You’ll be shot down like a rabbid dog if you don’t accept your lot in life, just like the average Iraqi today.
July 24th, 2007 at 9:28 am
I’ve been to Juarez. It’s existence now is supported by cheap energy and goods that we created by cheap energy, both now and in the past. That will soon be gone, along with the effects of climate change, resource depletion and a rising police state. There are other factors too which will make Bowden’s scenario look like a picnic.
Never in history has mankind had such a huge population overshoot and so many negative factors all concentrating on a single generation, all across the globe.
The idea that civilization will continue much as it does today, except more rudimentary is ludicrous, imo. It simply can’t. Force and violence will be the rule of the day until populations are reduced to manageable sizes. Then, maybe.
The army is too small to stop the violence. Over 300,000 USA armed soldiers and mercenaries cannot stop the 70,000 “insurgents” in Iraq now. Americans are well armed, many are well trained and then there will be the rogue law enforcement people to consider too. There are over 200,000,000 million guns in this country alone.
The courts have ruled that law enforcement has no obligation to protect citizens, repeatedly. Collapse will amplify this, although there will indeed be many efforts to stop the violence.
The best chance is to form groups, but even these will be difficult, due to internal friction and limited resources.
Some areas will be “safer” then others, but you’d have to do like fallout11 say’s. Others will be simply ignored and left to fend for themselves. Some of this is covered in “The Answer”.
History has shown throughout the world that chaos comes on the heels of collapse (or even before). Widespread chaos is a “normal” historical event. The difference here is the world hasn’t had to deal with a global problem before or such huge population overloads. Farming, if it is done at all at the depth of the collapse, will be exceedingly dangerous.
I do agree with your final comment however. In time, an effort to reassemble control over the surviving people will commence and this too, will be by force and violence.
We’re a long ways from ‘letting go’ of our civilization and our incessant demands. We probably won’t even be ready after the die-off.
[all posts with links are held in moderation to stop the spammers - Admin]
July 24th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
You could be right. But I must say that dying will not necessarily occur equally, justly, or be evenly distributed across the planet.
Even now, there are those hard at work, fully aware that the planet cannot sustain the present population with plans for a “solution”.
Not to be underestimated, these bastards.
July 24th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Are you aware that even in Iraq, farmers are still farming? That every household is legally entitled to one fully automatic AK-47? (Might as well have a pea-shooter when the army shows up.) That only a tiny fraction of the people in Juarez own a car or can afford fuel? (Don’t know the exact number, but this I do know: For every 1000 adults in the US there are 1000 cars. For every 1000 adults in China there are 8 cars. For every 1000 adults in India there are 4 cars. I’m guessing that Mexico comes in at around 10 to 20 per thousand, or somewhere between 1 and 2%. If we fall to that level, that is collapse.)
The Juarez you see just over the bridge is not the miles of shanty town I speak of. There’s no running water. No paved streets. No electricity. And very little food. A few people ride buses to work in the maquiladoras (two hour drive for some, to state sponsered factories) and bring home just enough to survive.
The common man will do without food and fuel long before governnemnts do in the name of “national security”. A soldier doesn’t ask how much the gas costs. He just fills the tank.
And those with the right political connections will carry on. It happens in many countries of Africa today while millions starve and it will happen here.
July 24th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Iraq is a national / regional situation. Farming is still presently possible because of several factors, including the (limited) availability of fuel. Whatever farming is done in the future, if any, will be limited and widely scattered, limiting distribution and availability AND increasing prices rather dramatically.
I think I’ve made it pretty clear we are dealing with a global problem, unlike anything the world has ever seen. The rising costs of energy will affect everybody and everything, irregardless of where you may be physically located.
July 24th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Our hugely overpopulated world is made possible only because of the industrial extraction of non-renewable resources. Shantytowns in Juarez are possible only because of still available water, and petroleum inputs to the farming industry. Take these away and you have an empty desert.
July 24th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
I read last night (forgot where) that current year global oil production (extraction) is down 1% of 2006. At the same time, global demand is up 1% or more.
Some seem to think this is no big deal. So what if oil supply is own 1% (it’ll come back up —- NOT). A 1% decline in supply can’t lead to a major price increase — WRONG. First, the per user (consumer) supply is down 2% (this year - so far), not 1%. Second, a 1% supply constriction does NOT equate to a 1% price hike.
As has been posted here at least twice previously, in the 1970’s oil crunch, each 1% constriction created 80% inflation - which is a doubling of prices per supply constriction of 1.2%. In the (portion of) the Excel spreadsheet copied at the top of this blog post, I’d did NOT use a price increase factor remotely approaching the 1970’s supply/price relationship. The formula applied in the spreadsheet takes the current year decline (constriction) as a percent, multiplied by 10, plus 1 and applies this as an exponent (raises to power of) to the prior price. Where price per US gal (85 octane), in the current year is X1, and the supply decline is 1%, then price X2 = X to the 1.1 power.
i.e. $3/gal ^ 1.1 = $4.17
I ‘believe’ that recent price increases (historical, since 2005) have approximated this equation (formula). Not being a student of economics or oil prices, I do NOT know what the actual relationship is - if there is one that holds through time (along the curve). And, I strongly ’suspect’ that NO one else actually knows what is going to happen to price as supply constricts, either. The ‘point’ (purpose) of the calculation above was to illustrate that the relationship is NOT a linear one - or even close to 1:1 (linear). I ‘believe’ that the formula I used above is a BEST case scenario - and falls FAR short of the increases seen in the 70’s (by far).
When the 70’s ‘experience’ is applied to the Oil Drum’s forecast, we would have gasoline (starting from $3.00 in ‘07) rises to $5.40 (’08), $9.72, $40.82, $171.46 and $720.15 (’12) Now, anyone who can think will discern that $720 per US gal can never happen - for several ‘reasons’ that I will not go into here. However, all other costs would increase 100-plus fold if fuel went up even 10 fold- and at the 1970’s inflationary rate, would be up almost 19 fold (1,890%) by 2012 (if not before) under the Old Drum foreast. Furthermore, these (ALL) dollar numbers here are in “current dollars” {CY$, ‘07$), meaning at the present relative purchasing power (value) of the US dollar. If (as) the USD continues to tank on world markets, and/or our “fractional reserve” fantasy land economic ’system’ (scam) implodes, or China slows down purchasing US Treasury bonds or ‘drops a Trillion greenbacks where it hurts, etc., etc - well … all bets are off (. Even assuming that gasoline is available to you in 2012 (at any price) and that you have a few spare wheelbarrow loads of cash to haul over to the supplier, 1) where are you going to go, 2) what did you give up to purchase that gas, 3) can you even keep the gas (or vehicle) long enough to use (burn) it?, ETC.
However, before gas/diesel reaches $10/gal (AKA farming implodes, hunger haunts America), we’ll see the US military gong into the ’serious’ Oil Biz openly (as if we haven’t been all along). IMO, we’ll ’see’ nuclear exchanges before $20/gal fuel exchanges.
The point behind (of) the illustrative “numbers” was, IS and remains, “we (you) ain’t seen nothing yet” - even in a BEST case scenario - IMO.
Take away message: Time to pinch it off, fuck (skip) wiping or flushing (the great flush will happen with or without you), and get ‘the bush’ out of the god damn crapper (pending perfect shit storm).
‘Cause the shit is going fly - and stink - permanently.
PS: I just recalled a ’saying’ I had posted on the wall behind my desk back in the late 70’s. It read, “What so ever impacts a fan is never evenly distributed”.
July 24th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
This is a great blog. I often comment on the Oil Drum and I am treated as a lunatic for expressing similar views as are spoken here.
Good work people. The truth is often bitter.
July 24th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
This is a great blog. And I’m not going to argue details. Truth is, I don’t know exactly how things will go down.
I wrote a whole book based on collapse of agriculture for lack of fuel. (I am a farmer and I grew a garden last year with nothing but hand tools to reacquaint myself with the terrible difficulties associated with that type of farming.)
Your companion piece on the absolute necessity of cooperation and bartering is spot on.
I don’t take government subsidies, so I figure I am one of the dudes that gets left to my own devices, regardless of how the rest fare.
July 24th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
Excellent blog!!
Yep- time is short.
I have alienated family …friends… co-workers over the past 5 years…and feel I am about to be vindicated.
July 24th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
One thing that I am surprised at is why no movie director has seized on this totally apocalyptic scenario and made this most chilling horror movie ever. One that would strike fear into most people, describing a very plausible yet basically untold story of the end of the civilisation as we know it. A tale that has no happy ending which, in terms of an effective movie, would make it very special and unique. Perhaps even shake up some of the “everything will sort it self out” complacency of the general population.
July 25th, 2007 at 5:31 am
First time to comment here…
My small time “farming” is the old fashioned way - all hand tools, hard work, and mulch, mulch, mulch. Have about 3,000 sq. ft. in various kinds of gardening styles - raised beds, open field, and mounds. This spring and summer have been very productive, due to a combination of mulch and rain.
My view is that as “this” progresses - and TSHTF - everyone will need indoctrination into food production, of some kind or another.
I’ve almost given up on trying to explain to my family and friends, not only what is going on, but what is about to unfold. No one wants to listen to anything. My response is simply to try to be productive in the area I think will be the most critical. No more talking, just DO. And let actions speak louder than words.
Tomatoes, cucs, squash, onions, garlic, beans, okra, and lots of herbs do all the “taking” for me…
Admin has created a fantastic forum and excellent blog!!!
July 25th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
I’ve clicked over here a few times now from latoc links, and have been delighted to find a well-written blog/forum whose creator is actually realistic and plain-spoken about what faces us. (a rarity, from what I’ve seen over the last several years)
Something I haven’t seen mentioned much:
1. The USA has about 130 million pets - most of which are cats and dogs…about one for every two humans. When it becomes too expensive to feed them, or food is lacking - a few things will happen. Some people will cook beloved Fluffy. Many will simply abandon them, which will quickly create roving bands of hungry animals - dogs will be a particular problem, and are also competitors with humans for meat and water. Millions of abandoned cats will further decimate the bird population, and in turn also be food for roving dogs. I’m not sure if domesticated cats would literally attack humans for food, but in groups they might.
Sure, many pets aren’t familiar with how to hunt - but when they are hungry enough, instinct will kick in. We will probably see many ‘pet’ attacks on humans, especially on smaller children or the elderly, by groups or even single dogs.
We will see outraged violence when neighbors eat other neighbor’s pet/s. The beloved companions of affluent times will become numerous, dangerous predators - also food sources of the times to come…and disease vectors, as well. Surviving animals will breed in large numbers, quickly creating a lot of pure predators that have no experience of friendly times with humans.
Since many of us will have a hard time hurting or eating ‘pet animals’, at least at first, they will probably become a substantial problem in both urban and rural environs…especially for those who have no real weapons. A baseball bat works, but trying to fend off even one (or more) attacking dog/s isn’t easy, even with a bat…and unless you are either lucky or very skilled, you will doubtless get some substantial wounds in the process. You can forget a trip to the ER…there won’t be one.
A loving, protective dog is a great asset -but when your kids are starving, it will be a very hard choice to make.
July 25th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Admin, this post got linked to via Life After The Oil Crash (Matt Savinar) AND BisonSurvivalBlog (both very good), hence the heavy traffic/viewership.
July 25th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Thanks for the update. There’s been a pretty big surge in site visitors.