There are many, many reasons why I see a collapse of civilization in the near future. This is based upon information gleaned from many sources, compiled from around the world, on what we do know and projecting it upon what we don’t know.

This is what I call “collapse science”, the study of trends and events in the past, present and future that indicate the direction of human civilization and how it might or might not survive it’s own follies.

It would take several books to write down and document all of the facts and the science that lies behind each point that pertains to collapse and why this is going to happen, so obviously, I’m not going to bother with that right now. Instead, I’m going to simply list some of the ‘biggees’ that are in the headlines today that indicate that civilization’s collapse is just ahead and is in all likelihood, completely unavoidable.

Peak Oil

Peak oil (world maximum extraction and production rates) has arrived, while global consumption demands continues to climb. Global civilization and populations are a byproduct of cheap, plentiful oil. We are now on the downhill curve with no portable, cheap energy available to replace it. No real alternative energy has been found. Simply feeding the global population now will becoming increasingly harder and harder to do as oil supplies dry up.

Oil is food, and the inverse is just as true. Oil plants the seeds, spreads the fertilizer, provides insecticides and herbicides and pest control, pumps essential water, powers the world’s tractors and trucks, permits timely harvests on huge mega-farms, transports the crops and foodstuffs thousands of miles from field to plate, and provides the processing and packaging capacity to handle billions of tons each season. Nothing of this magnitude would be possible without cheap, plentiful petroleum.

Oil is people. Without cheap, plentiful oil, there would not be nearly 7 billion people because the food supply would not have permitted it. People without oil will soon = starvation.

Peak oil also means peak civilization, peak living standards, peak democracy, peak freedom, and peak population. All of these achievements are now in global decline as resources become scarce and wars are fought over the remaining supplies. All of these human achievements will diminish correspondingly with the world’s available oil supply.

Peak Resources

The world’s available resources have long since peaked. Because it takes cheap, plentiful energy to locate, extract, transport and process these resources, their peak will always be before or at the peak of oil. Due to their overexploitation by humans, the world’s natural resources are in decline. All of the low-lying fruit has been plucked from the tree. What’s left, is increasingly more difficult and more expensive to find and exploit.

There are also other peak resources that are in serious decline. Water, electricity, clean air and seasons. California is facing critical electrical and water shortages, while at the same time, it’s growing seasons are wildly out of control due to climate change. Australia is facing the same problems, as is China, Brazil, Uganda, Tasmania, Zimbabwe, and parts of the United States. Climate change will bring about severe seasonal changes and the corresponding difficulties in food production, disease increases and decreased habitability.

Resource Destruction

The world’s available natural resources for human and non-human use are in severe decline worldwide. This is the result of unchecked capitalism, war, pollution, deforestation, overfishing, logging, mining, drought, desertification, soil loss, construction, roadways and infrastructure development. Both land and sea are in severe decline worldwide, threatening both human and non-human inhabitants. The world’s oceans have declined by 90% of large game fish, while huge Texas size pools of trash swirl in the oceans for decades. Vast inland regions have been turned into deserts by drought, deforestation, overgrazing and overproduction.

Land and sea resources provide all of the world’s food supply. Threatened by serious levels of drought, deforestation, pollution and soil depletion, food production worldwide continues to sharply decline. Combined with the global oil crisis and climate change, adequate food production is now doubtful as demand continues to climb with still-increasing global populations.

The world’s available fertile soils are threatened by overproduction, acidification of rainfall and groundwater, depleted aquifers, soil salinity, overgrazing and deforestation. Erosions from wind and rain continue to destroy billions of tons of topsoil each year. Civilizations encroachment upon farmlands in many locations has caused fertile land to be turned into parking lots. The recent rush to bio-fuels has turned essential food production into fuel.

China

China holds 1.2 trillion dollars in U.S. cash reserves, making their competition for essential resources a foregone conclusion. In recent years, China has purchased most of the world’s cement, lumber, steel and essential metals like copper. It’s growing demands for raw materials and finished products is nearly insatiable. Population growth is expected to peak around 2030. China has the capacity to literally dictate the terms of America’s survival, which is something I do expect to happen.

India

India is growing at twice the rate of China and is the world’s second most populous country. Like China, the insatiable demand for essential goods and materials will be impossible for the world to meet. India and China represent the growing demand for Western living standards by less developed countries - standards which are now impossible for these countries to achieve due to global depletion levels in natural resources. This disparity will not go unchallenged.

Economy

The American economy is in shambles, despite the false forecasting and numbers being portrayed by the U.S. government. The growing deficit and excessive spending of fiat money has left millions of Americans very poor. More money is now spent on “defense” then all other countries in the world, while several million Americans are homeless each night and over two million are locked up. An accounting for this malfeasance is grossly overdue and will result in a severe depression as the money supply dries up and/or revolution when Americans finally declare “enough is enough” of reckless spending and irresponsible government. The American political landscape is a disgusting mess and is taking no action to address these problems, and proposes to worsen in the next (s)election.

Climate Change

Climate change is now occurring around the world and will displace hundreds of millions, if not billions of people. Low lying countries are already evacuating islands and low lying towns as the global ice sheets melt. Vast regions once fertile are expected to simply dry up. The possibility of reaching crisis-level tipping points with the release of billions of tons of methane in the permafrost increases with each month as global temperatures continue to rise. Hurricanes, typhoons and tropical storms are increasing. Climate change also brings severe drought, the city of Perth is now facing abandonment due to a lack of rainfall for the last several years. Other regions will be inundated with severe flooding, destroying property, crops and human lives. The world’s ability to continue to feed itself remains in doubt as climate change dramatically affects global crop harvests.

Consumption

While already mentioned, the simple fact that human consumption levels of raw and processed resources continues to rise bears mentioning all by itself. Despite the global decline in food production, raw materials, strategic minerals, essential commodities such as fresh water, topsoil and clean air, global consumption levels have been rising every single year. Increased demand for steel, copper, aluminum and other metals, concrete, lumber, plastics, oil, medicines and food, has created shortages in all of these areas. No effective policy or practice has been instituted to curb this consumption. Even worse, what one country does is ignored by all the others, making such efforts extremely futile and without any real effect. A prime wasteful example is found here in Las Vegas.

Pandemic

The World Health Organization has repeatedly warned of the possibility of a pandemic, most likely in the form of bird flu. This is not the only threat, dengue fever has risen by over 600%, the West Nile virus is now found throughout most of America, and strange, emerging diseases are on the rise, many of which are directly linked to global warming and increased vectors. The likelihood of pandemic continues to increase, while effective vaccines and treatment remain elusive. Drug-resistant tuberculosis is making a comeback throughout the world and can be easily spread from human to human.

Pollution

Rising levels of pollution are occurring around the world, with some very critical situations developing. Russia has neglected an extreme situation where a nuclear explosion may result from improperly stored expended fuel rods. India’s rivers are so polluted and toxic that they threaten human life. Huge toxic wastepiles are building up all over the world, as the human populations continue to make entire mountain chains of trash. Runoff into creeks, rivers and streams pollute aquifers and dump into the world’s oceans, creating toxic lowlands and huge floating trash piles the size of Texas.

Terrorism

The world continues to become increasingly unstable and hostile with rising instances of terrorism. The possibility remains that a significant terrorist attack could happen at anytime, anywhere, including more false-flag events by governments. Recent legislation passed in the U.S. indicates that is exactly what the government is planning for. Every terrorist act leads to fewer freedoms and more useless legislation and increased restrictions on personal liberties. The end result is fascism and a surveillance police state where everyone is suspect and no rights are respected or regarded by anyone.

War

The drums of war beat still, with America presently engaged in two overt wars and several covert wars in the Middle East, Africa and South America. Venezuela provides 25% of the U.S. oil supply and threats of war to Venezuela, or a covert take-over have continued to surface. Iran, Syria, North Korea and even Russia are now being threatened by the U.S. government. The possibility of war for scarcer and scarcer resources increases every day. Both China and India and Pakistan have the potential to trigger a nuclear holocaust, as do several other countries, including the United States. The U.S. has refused to take the ‘nuclear option’ off the table as it continues to try and gain global hegemony. Depleted uranium continues to give off it’s awful legacy of stillborn and deformed babies, both here in the U.S., and abroad.

Conclusion

The combined effect of even just one or two of these threats will be devastating. All are very possible and increasingly likely to trigger collapse. It is also very doubtful that only one or two of these trigger points will occur by themselves, most likely, several will occur near-simultaneously.

Civilization teeters on several extremely fine edges today, any of which could slice humanity to pieces. Because our world has been built upon many non-sustainable technologies and practices, the odds of it’s collapse are now 100% likely. The journey we have taken to achieve this level of technology, development, living standards and global population levels has left behind a horrifying natural resource legacy of widespread pollution, exploitation and destruction. These issues cannot remain unaddressable forever, and will likely trigger various domino effects as the world continues to excaberate their failing conditions.

The outcome will be collapse, triggered by one or more of the above, or something I haven’t even bothered to mention (there are other issues, such as solar flares, asteroids, etc.,). Because our world requires cheap energy and cheaply available goods and materials to continue it’s present course and direction, the loss of any of these things will by itself, trigger a collapse, which in turn, will create the domino effect of catastrophic destruction of human civilization.

There is zero possibility the present human population on Earth can survive its present path. Collapse will cause a massive die-off to much lower levels, the survivors of which if they are smart, will engage in sustainable practices for their civilization and livelihoods. Anything less and the entire process will undoubtedly repeat itself all over again.

Further Reading

Global Warming Is Three Times Faster Then Worst Predictions
Food Security
World Oxygen Levels Decline
Tipping Points Passed (I told you so)
Why A Slow Crash Will Destroy Everything
Global Warming Theories Debated
Living in An Apocalyptic World
Bangledesh - Climate Change Impacts Already Evident
Tire Reef Ecological Disaster
Fear or Fact?
Our Worst Fears Are Exceeded By Reality
Beyond Civilization
Where Your Computer Waste Winds Up

Also see this blog’s Collapse category entries and Collapse Blog.