$15 Gasoline Ahead
461 ViewsFrom the Oil Drum:
Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat out that new technologies and new drilling won’t solve the peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon gasoline followed by rationing. $15 Gasoline Ahead
HOST: Dr. Hirsch, there are a lot of people when we talk about peak oil who say there are going to be technologies that are always developed. There will be new ways to get oil, whether it’s from coal, whether it’s from the oil shales, and they say that means we will never actually hit peak oil. What do you say to those people?
HIRSCH: They’re incorrect, and the reason that they’re incorrect is that they don’t understand the magnitude of the problem and how long it’s going to take to bring substitute liquid fuels on and to introduce energy efficiency on a massive scale. That’s something that we analyzed and it takes decades. And the reason, simply, is that the magnitude of the problem is enormous.
[McTeer says we should drill more.]
HOST: Dr. Hirsch, what do you say to that–the idea that we should be drilling in places like ANWR and drilling offshore. Would that solve this problem of a plateau in oil production?
HIRSCH: There’s no single thing that’s going to solve this problem because it’s as massive as one can possibly imagine. And the prices that we’re paying at the pump today I think are going to be the good old days because others who watch this very closely forecast that we are going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon. And then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we’re going to talk about rationing. In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, in addition to that, we’re not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.
May 23rd, 2008 at 5:16 am
Naomia Klean has an interesting article at China is building the prototype for a high-tech police state. It is ready for export.
May 23rd, 2008 at 5:48 am
I saw this the other day. Dr. Hirsch cuts straight to the chase, no pollyanna bulls*** about how some ‘magical thinking’ solution is going to save us from him.
In similar news, I came across several good articles recently:
Economist John Williams (of Shadowstats fame, also recently quoted on CNN’s Moneyline) released a special report on the forthcoming hyperinflationary greater depression. Well worth a read for those with an interest in economics.
“The U.S. economy is in an intensifying inflationary recession that eventually will evolve into a hyperinflationary great depression. Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010, if not before. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, and gross mismanagement.”
Kevin Phillips (from Harpers Magazine) agrees.
Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know.
From Bloomberg-
Oil Exploration, Production Costs Up 400% Since 2000
“Never have so many oil and gas companies spent so much to produce so
little. That’s the challenge facing Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc,
BP Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and ConocoPhillips, which will spend a
record $98.7 billion this year on exploration and production, Lehman
Brothers estimates. Costs more than quadrupled since 2000 as explorers
targeted challenging reservoirs and demand rose for labor and material.”
From The Times -
Skyrocketing Oil Prices Generating Panic in America
“In political terms, inexorably rising oil prices are starting to generate
something approaching panic in America. Oil is up by almost 30 per cent
this year alone. That’s not the fault of greedy energy companies, or that
other current favourite, unscrupulous speculators. It is a simple fact of
life in a world economy that is, in effect, experiencing a new industrial
revolution among half its population. Even in the event of a recession in
much of the developed world, energy demand is not going to change much.”
The Wall Street Journal reports: “The world’s premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.” Previously, the International Energy Agency had forecast an ever-increasing supply to match ever-increasing demand. Oops. The U.S. Energy Department’s own forecasting shop, the Energy Information Administration, has long adhered to the same demand-driven scenario. Now, both agencies have been caught with their analytical pants down. While some blame oil speculators for rapidly rising fuel costs, most economists and oil analysts point to increasing world-wide demand combined with the difficulties of finding new oil and oil suppliers unwillingness to spend the money to find more of the stuff.
May 23rd, 2008 at 7:09 am
“Oil to reach $12 to $15 a gallon, followed by rationing.” Ha ha ha
Try this on for size;
Oil to reach $120 to $150 a gallon (followed by none)
Bread to reach $60 to $75 a loaf (followed by none)
Stampeding Sheeple: Priceless. (followed by no one)
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:47 am
Great link aft.
Market Stalinism, Golden Shield, consumer cocoon, all equal to —>> planet raping, resource destroying, soul killing civilization. What we have today, only much worse.
“the government hopes to use the surveillance shield to identify and counteract dissent” — all helped being built by American corporations. Nothing like letting a little capitalism get in the way of your sense of freedom.
A GREAT reason to never live in the city. Or even visit.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Odd, I now get a 403 error when attempting to access survival acres main site or this blog.
H-SPHERE
Error 403: Forbidden
You don’t have permissions to access this page. This usually means one of the following:
* this file and directory permissions make them unavailable from the Internet.
* .htaccess contains instructions that prevent public access to this file or directory.
Please check file and directory permissions and .htaccess configuration if you are able to do this. Otherwise, request your webmaster to grant you access.
I can still access both via a proxy (as I am doing now), but the block is not local (i.e. employer generated), as I do not get the normal ‘blocked’ screen.
May 23rd, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Perhaps you are not getting my email. This blog is getting a ton of spam and I’ve been banning IP addresses as a preventative measure, weeding through the known spammers and ones I’m guessing at.
Some IP’s are very heavy users, taking up over 60% of the bandwidth all by themselves, which is of course a bit ridiculous.
I sent you email hours ago, but maybe you can’t receive it due to the IP banning. I need your normal IP address and I’ll check it against the access file, it’s possible your IP was one of those that got nixed, there are over a hundred banned IP’s in their now.
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
I would have to say I agree with Dr. Hirsch to a point - gas will rise, perhaps to $12 to $15 a gallon.
But I’m not sure I see this as the catalyst of collapse. The catalyst of collapse will be global warming, not peak oil.
If gas rises to $12 to $15 a gallon, the world will likely fall into an economic depression. But the current system won’t collapse beyond recognition. There will be massive unemployment and many more poor and destitute. I see this more like the economy described in Upton Sinclair’s “The Jungle.” Read it and you’ll find a Dickensian nightmare… especially for the working class. Life will be much more brutal. But the economy will not collapse.
But on the whole, I am optimistic. I believe the price of oil climbing, despite the economic dislocation that will occur, will do three very good things.
1) It will slow the rate of global warming - less fossil fuel consumption is a tremendously good thing in that regard.
2) It will accelerate the move toward local farming at the community and household level. In fact, it will make it essential, as admin as pointed out.
3) It will drive solar and wind power to the forefront.
People are coming to the realization that coal is not an answer. That it is poison. Look, if the government of the State of Kansas, and its governor, can veto and sustain a veto of new coal power plants in the western part of the state, will, I can tell you that a sea change has occurred!
Bill McKibben in a recent article titled, “Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million” (available on the Internet), says that NASA scientist named James Hansen has “called for an immediate ban on new coal-fired power plants that don’t capture carbon, the phaseout of old coal-fired generators, and a tax on carbon high enough to make sure that we leave tar sands and oil shale in the ground.” This is what has happened in my state.
Nuclear power is economically unviable and its safety is strongly questionable.
This makes renewable sources the only real alternative.
Solar and wind can supply a third of the energy needs of the U.S. within the next five years. As time passes, costs drop in panels, and efficiency rises, combined with the distribution of panels on every commercial and residential house in the country, the potential for powering most of our energy needs from renewable sources is a real possibility. Additionally, new electric cars like the Aptera promise to deliver an equivalent of 300 miles per gallon, a mode of transportation that could someday soon be powered by solar and wind. Take my word for it: the days of GM, Ford and Chrysler are numbered (and the sooner the better).
We are in a race against time. The one key thing we should all realize is the War on Terror’s effect on the economy. We have a TRILLION dollar military and spend more on our military than ALL other nations combined. And what is this military’s purpose? To act as an oil protection service for Chevron, Exxon-Mobile, BP, and Royal Dutch Shell? That’s all it is.
Imagine a world of energy independence! A local agricultural economy! A world powered by renewable, non-global warming energy sources! More like Tolkein’s Shire than the suburban wasteland we have today. I’m telling you it’s here if we can force the U.S. government to pull back and invest. I’m not optimistic that Obama alone can change the dynamic. But combine that with a near veto proof majority of Democrats, world opinion, oil at $12 to $15 a gallon, and economic dislocation, and progressive change is possible… like that in the thirties and sixties.
And a substantial core of libertarian Republicans can be counted on to jump in on this. Ron Paul considers our military mission impossible to maintain given our economic instability. He and others recommend a rollback in military expenditures, removing the military from foreign soil, and terminating the war on terror and the war on drugs.
If these things were to happen, and they are not beyond the realm of possibility, the world might yet be saved. Militarism and the prison industrial complex and all its wasteful spending would be capped, at least for a long long time – no need to go to war if oil is not an issue; no need for massive prisons, if half of the felons (those serving time for marijuana convictions) are no longer criminals.
But these things will only happen IF oil goes to $12 to $15 a barrel. It’s the old “sink or swim” condition. And yes, there will be tremendous dislocation. And people in this country will have to get used to living with less and growing their own food. But that could be great, for our psyche, our lifestyle (no more fuckin treadmill), and our sense of well-being (instead of being dictated too by the New York, LA, D.C culture zones).
The Shire may yet live and our lives could still yet be more like those peaceful hobbits in Hobbiton.
May 24th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Hmmm. I can imagine quite a lot, but I can’t imagine that corporate greed is going to change at all.
Ever.
I think the biggest mistake is thinking that they want us to have these things (energy independence for example). Why give this to us now, when we could have had it all along? What changed?
What I can imagine (easily) is they will keep a stranglehold on the energy monopoly.
Why would they also abandon a trillion dollar enterprise, such as a military monopoly? It’s what actually runs this country in particular and much of the “free” world (which is busy exploiting the rest of the world).
These paradigms are not changing, they are worsening all of the time. It’s why the rhetoric for war with Venezuela is ratcheting up and the battle for the Arctic. It’s a resource war for oil — not energy independence.
We can’t “force” the government to do anything either. This is a fine imagination, but look at our track record, it’s pitiful as hell. Hanging your hat on any politician, or movement is going to leave you with a bad taste in your mouth.
What “we” might want it totally irrelevant. We are effectively powerless because we won’t take the path of independence (which leads to revolution). Desire won’t stop this junta, it will take our own ‘intervention’ (collapse and revolution) to stop it.
It’s great you remain optimistic, but I don’t see why you still believe things will somehow change. We are very deeply entrenched in how things really work in this world. Even resource shortages or high prices is not going to change this, not in our lifetimes. Politicians are beholden to the corporate powers, look at our efforts to stop the Iraq war. There are absolutely countless examples of “utter failure” by the people, by the politicians and by those that have “desire”.
What I can imagine is we are going to have exactly what we have now, only worse. As the collapse deepens around the world, more people will die from these effects on their economy, resources, weather and disease. Corporate, militarized America will be very busy leveraging their positions in the midst of all this death, again just like they do now.
What I can’t imagine is that ethics, integrity, truthfulness, honesty, compassion and doing the right thing will suddenly or even gradually “arrive” as the collapse deepens. It will be every man for himself, a characteristic that is found throughout history as civilizations implode.
May 24th, 2008 at 8:43 am
I hate to say it, but I wholeheartedly agree with admin. From water car inventor murdered (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6yRn4IAsrU) and I have not heard anything from the professor who used radio frequencies to separate salt water into hydrogen and oxygen. Imagine that, just by listening to the radio, you get all the energy you need. Shit, they probably killed him too. My friend ran his house on spinning magnets for a year, and when he tried to patent his invention, lo and behold, he got raided for drugs and managed to die in custody. Hmmm!Any body who believes that the world will change for the better without a major revolution and die-off, well, I want whatever you’re on. Time and history has proven again and again that the world does not run on love, it runs on greed, hate, envy, avarice. Now, if there were a magic pill we could put into the worlds water supply to eliminate these “virtues”, we just might have a slim chance. But the way things stand right now, even if we stopped all carbon emissions today (LOL)the world would heat up for thirty more years. It looks like I will live just long enough to see mankind go extinct. Interesting times indeed.
May 24th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Well, admin. I have to agree with what you suggest - “that we can’t force the government to do anything.” But it won’t be us alone. It will be the price of energy. There will be a lot of anger as the “American dream” suddenly goes poof and people are awakened from their slumber. The question really is whether people will act in their own interests or continue to let corporations drive their government’s agenda.
My belief is that with the sea change unfolding in front of our eyes - $5 gallon gas or higher this year - folks are waking up from the Matrix and people are asking questions. And fairly soon, they’re going to demand answers. When pocketbooks are threatened, so is the power structure.
Laws could be legislated to force utilities to accept net metering. This alone would be a huge incentive for solar and wind power - not only do you get your energy for free but you’re able to make the power company’s meter go backward - essentially banking energy for future use. There is no doubt in my mind that even with today’s solar panels, the need for expensive investments in coal and nuclear plants to deal with peak energy load would go away.
18 months ago it was a sure bet that Kansas would permit two massive 700 Megawatt plants to be constructed on its Western perimeter. Now my state is a solidly Red state controlled by corporate Republicans of the worst type. But the city commission of Lawrence, KS raised the issue of the plant’s effect on human health. And the State’s govenor, a moderate Democrat, and its Secretary of Health, began to take note. The plant permit was denied on the basis of its effect on human health. And the Republican legislature tried to override the decision, only to face the governor’s veto. They tried three times to override the veto. And they used every corrupt practice in the book to buy votes. Still, they fell four votes short in the House. The governor’s veto stood. Four votes, admin - FOUR.
Is this an omen of things to come??
The price of oil affects all things, including the military. As Michael Klare has pointed out, our military uses more oil than the entire nation of Sweden. Without oil, we will be forced to pull back from the battlefield. He suggests we are already an ex-superpower, just too dumb to know it.
From his excellent article “An Oil Addicted Ex-Superpower” available on the Internet, he writes: “For all the talk of America’s growing reliance on computers, advanced sensors, and stealth technology to prevail in warfare, it has been oil above all that gave the US military its capacity to “project power” onto distant battlefields like Iraq and Afghanistan. Every Humvee, tank, helicopter, and jet fighter requires its daily ration of petroleum, without which America’s technology-driven military would be forced to abandon the battlefield.”
Our government can continue its rant against Venezuela and for rights to Arctic oil, but its military will have to soon adjust to the reality that it has no oil to project its power. This essentially cancels out any notion of war against Venezuela or over the Arctic.
We thankfully still have the freedom to vote with our pocketbooks. Around here, there are two organizations that have sprung up (I’m a member of both). One is the Lawrence Sustainability Network and the other the local chapter of the Sustainability Action Network. It’s my understanding, these kinds of organizations are going on at the grassroots level throughout the country. These are not happening in a vacuum.
For example, the The SUSTAINABILITY ACTION NETWORK, Inc. is a Kansas not-for-profit organization and defines itself thusly:
“We are an action oriented organization, advancing societal changes to address sustainability issues. While we also support personal lifestyle changes for folks to minimize their personal carbon footprint, the global “3E Trifecta” of Energy-Ecology-Economy crises are building so rapidly, that large scale action is needed immediately and methodically to overcome institutional barriers and advance public policy that preserves ecological sustainability.
Our current projects include:
1) Peak Oil Action - initiating municipal level Peak Oil resolutions and response planning.
2) Permaculture Collaborative - developing skills and resources for sustainable food production.
3) Land Consortium - organizing interested stakeholders to acquire prime farmland in the urban fringe for land-based economic development and regional food security.
4) SAN Sustainability Announcements - informing and encouraging others to become active in our Sustainability Action Network, or other such action driven groups.
5) Collaboration with sister organizations - such as: Citizens for Responsible Planning; Films for Action; local farmers fighting for local water rights; Lawrence Future Food advocating farm-based economic development in Lawrence; national efforts by the Sustainable Energy Network; KC Metro groups like the Kansas City Food Circle and the All Species Project, etc.”
Again, this is not happening in a vacuum.
A quick aside - last week I was conducting business in Florida and saw trucks on the road using “hybrid drives.” It’s true hybrid technology is simply an intermediate step, but the fact that trucks are on the road using this technology is another example of the sea change.
Sure, unabated, our way of living is headed for the cliff and collapse and runaway global warming. And it may be as you say, a one on one, every man for himself kind of existence. I am preparing for this - I am not naively putting my eggs in the basket of change because I’ve been disappointed in the past.
But my belief is that people will vote with their consumption. They will rapidly move to products that promise renewable energy. I’m seeing it here. Windmills are being purchased throughout the county - even without net metering! Does this mean that renewable energy alone will save us? No. It will also require that we get used to living with less. People will be forced to live with less - the cost will be too great to do otherwise.
But this is a good thing. No more f__king treadmills. No more keeping up with the Joneses. No more BS trinkets that keep us working harder and longer simply to buy the latest greatest, that a year later is already obsolete and gets thrown in the trash.
Instead, of the treadmill, a settling will occur. Think of it as a great collective deep breath.
It can happen. We are not beyond change. And that change can be positive. Only time will tell.
May 24th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
True, one of the main catalysts of collapse is global warming, but the price of petroleum and its products can be another.
As Dr. Hirsch said after gasoline reaches $12 and $15 per gallon, then world oil production in decline, then rationing. Obviously when oil production goes into decline, the price would never stay the same. It will increase exponentially and think then of food prices and even food availability, not to mention the use of petroleum in home heating.
One can envision a bizarre hypothetical scenario where, even if there were no global warming, if oil production suddenly careened downward (as it truly will) with prices careening equally upward, collapse could and would occur based on just one thing–petroleum availability. Even the wealthiest of the wealthy would not be able to buy their way out.
Civilization would end, but only small and scattered groups of humans possessing ancient skills and knowledge would have a chance of survival.
May 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I agree civilization as we know it will end. This is a good thing; I don’t think of it as all bad. The question is the rate of collapse and whether we can do anything to slow it down, not because we give a damn about the soulless herds, but because we need the time ourselves to prepare for a future of scarcity.
I read a book a few years ago written by a Berklee scientist in the seventies that argued against nuclear power. It claimed that over half of our energy needs could be done away with simply by modifying our existing homes and businesses to making them more energy efficient.
Just yesterday, I spoke with someone that compared global warming to a freight train leaving a station at 5 mph. While, at present, it is only traveling at 5 mph, he warned that slowing it down would be difficult due to inertia alone. The key is that we need to not only slow it down but put the train in reverse.
These are the battlelines. Admin and others have felt for a long time that changing people’s minds about these facts is a collosal waste of time. But without Admin’s insights, I would still be in the dark on so many things. These messages, the rising cost of energy, and the inexorable changes wrought by global warming can provide the necessary momentum for change.
May 25th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Folks
The cat is out of the bag! They have started to do news stories about us…..
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080524/green_survival_080524/20080524?hub=SciTech
May 26th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Makes you wonder what they’re going to be saying when the idea of “peak civilization” finally takes hold.
Other comments: The exact number of people taking such steps is impossible to determine, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the movement has been gaining momentum in the past few years.
I know the precise number.
Since we are talking North America here, do the following:
1) take the total population count of Canada and the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii of course;
2) Multiply by .991876543 (death rate by the time you read this);
3) Divide that number by 7 years (this is the time remaining);
4) Subtract exactly 28,953,211 to account for the armchair survivalists and the end timers Jesus jumpers;
5) Remove the profiteers and pretenders (Savinar’s) and the hucksters, hypsters and scam artists, phony green “businesses”, and false front operations being run by three letter agencies and their agents (1,289,311);
6) Eliminate the bankrupt, indebted and truly destitute who would if they could but can’t and don’t know how (11,483,121);
7) And finally, remove the (remaining) capitalists, future-tech revivalists and Utopian propagandists and Never, Never Land fantasy worshippers (4,089,473);
There is no need to eliminate the deniers using this formula, they are automatically accounted for in each step.
The resulting number is precisely accurate (to the day) number of hard-core collapse survivalists (North America only) who have abandoned all present paradigms and concepts of a future inhabitable world devestated by climate change (993,704).
These are the future inheritors of the world, not the meek, not the strong, but the ones who devised survival strategies and plans well in advance of the collapse of civilization and are fully prepared to actually live them (ie, practice what they stopped preaching some time ago).
We should all hope to be among that number.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Logrithmic, not to pick on you per se, but I’ve been waiting patiently on solar power since 1979.
Despite nearly 30 years of empty promises regarding impending technological breakthroughs and economies of scale, PV costs per watt hour have actually quadripled since 1980. Yes, I’m old enough to remember the same claims from the late 1970’s. Nothing has really changed since then. Existing panel technologies are badly overpriced, in what is at present basically a small egalitarian niche marketplace. Payback for the system I was looking at last year, which would provide roughly 50% of my current household electrical usage, was on the order of 28 years (at present grid power rates). Not viable, even for me, a middle class American living better off than 98% of the rest of the world. And that assumes the claims that the system actually produces more energy in its lifetime than was consumed manufacturing and installing it, which is not all together proven (depends on your source).
On the micro scale, I recently saw an upbeat and positive article on solar power where an industry trade group stated that they hoped to have 20,000 US residential PV systems operation by 2030. That’s right, the best they could hope for was the population of a single large town, total.
On the macro scale, the US DOE is optimistically predicting
May 27th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Hmm….somehow my post was severely truncated.
No matter, such is life.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Front page of Survival Acres is covered with Cialis ads. Have you been hacked? It looks like a Javascript entry.
Note: I am not seeing this on any other website. Additionally I use Firefox under Linux and have no Windows type malware on my system.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:20 am
I’m not seeing it, on the site or the blog. What is the URL you are seeing this on?
May 27th, 2008 at 10:28 am
I can send the page source that my browser is rendering as a file if you want. There’s a bunch more junk and it seems embedded in the Hirsch article.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Start by sending me the URL you are seeing this on, so I’m not guessing.
Pages are ‘rendered’, so this is a deeper problem then what it seems.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I am seeing it on the front page at:
survivalacres.com/wordpress/?p=1335
and on this article:
survivalacres.com/wordpress/?p=1335
(The http prefix was removed so I could enter this but it’s there on the actual URL.)
But I am not seeing it when I open other articles.
There is a large DIV block at the end of the Hirsch blockquote that has a huge number of ads embedded in it. I do not recall that DIV block being there previously either.
Further, I just opened the site on a Windows machine with Firefox and the ads do not appear but they are still embedded there in the DIV block. I won’t attempt to open the site on a Windows machine with IE given the exposures that IE has.
One more check - Opened the site with SeaMonkey browser on Linux and I see the ads.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Thanks. Not sure how that crap got in there (yet). This blog is receiving thousands of spam entries and hits, taking up most of the bandwidth these days.
Mozilla didn’t show any of these ads, interesting. Don’t know if that is a feature or a curse.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Glad to help. The dimwits will keep being dim while others are busy trying to prepare. The last thing we need is such simple minded nonsense on one of the few useful blogs out there.
May 28th, 2008 at 4:07 am
But where will I get my ED meds if not via Survival Acres? ^_^