Warning To The World
4,286 Views[retitled, as I think it is much more appropriate with this title - Admin]
I am referring a lot of callers to review some of the data found on this blog, and therefore, am going to state some things here that might be “old ground” for regular readers, but need to put refreshed near the top of this blog.
It is my opinion that the “trigger events” leading up to global food shortages have now occurred. There are many reasons for this, but I base this opinion on the news articles now being reported around the world. Even the U.S. media if finally, if belatedly getting on board.
It is also my opinion that this situation is far more extreme then most people can rightly imagine. I say “rightly” because there is nothing in their experience that would tell them otherwise. In short, based on all of the information I have attempted to assimilate, we are facing famine in many parts of the world and food shortages and unbelievably high prices in America.
This situation is beginning to take notice in the public eye and is causing a huge upsurge in demand for food products. Not only food, but survival gear of all types, candles, seeds, solar power, fuel storage and anything and everything else you can think of. This panic alone has caused every supplier in the country to be overwhelmed with orders.
Personally, I have updated my shipping times page at least three or maybe even four times in the last week alone. Presently, we are over 1 month out on all products and longer on some products, such as Alpine Aire. Every cannery in the country has been overwhelmed, most are sold out and are scrambling for new supplies.
This is not uncommon for this industry. We ship out many tons of food per week as an industry, I don’t have the exact figures, but it’s quite a lot. Even so, there are only a handful of canneries like my suppliers in the entire country. We cannot handle even 1% of the population. We cannot handle even 1/10 of 1% of the population if they were all to order.
This is unfortunate, but true. Many of us have been in this business for a very long time, my main supplier has been doing this for over 50 years for example. Me, over 13 years now. I’ve “seen this before”, but because of the news on global food supplies, resource depletion, energy stocks, fuel stocks, increased population and global resource demands that are spiraling clear out of site — I’ve never seen it like this. Nor do I ever expect to see it like this again.
In other words — this is the ‘event’ all have been wondering about and some of us have been waiting for. We are now in a permanent downard resource depletion spiral of gargantuan proportions. The world news has reported that without record breaking crops every single year from here on out we are facing famine. This is not my opinion, this is the assessment of researchers and scientists.
More research and scientific reports have been pouring in all of last year and this year. Few Americans seem to be aware of their significance. Global climate change is real, the world will be ice free in Arctic in just a few more years, this will cause gigantic and massive crop failures all over the world, low land flooding, sea level rises and huge number of global refugees pouring forth from inundated lands. Increased hurricane severity, drought and even flooding in many areas is also anticipated by scientist and climatologists. This is already happening, I cannot stress this enough.
In addition, the energy crisis is quite severe and getting worse. Not a single significant discovery of oil has been found to my knowledge that will last more then six months at the present world consumption rates. Food = oil, and all the energy and fertilizer inputs in-between. Without cheap energy, we will never produce even a fraction of the food we produce today. This all by itself, discounting the effects of climate change, have doomed our future chances of survival by a very huge percentage. As a guess, at least 50% of all human life on earth will suffer quite dramatically as our energy supplies become increasingly scarce and expensive and our ability to produce food plummets.
This will mostly affect the developed countries in various and sundry ways. Our modern agriculture industry is already suffering under these conditions. Some farmers cannot afford the fertilizers due to it’s high costs. Much of our existing farmland has been plowed under to make room for biofuel crops. These crops, like corn, is being converted into bioethanol for our automobiles. This has caused a huge upsurge in price and global food shortages, along with food riots in some countries.
In addition, countries like China and India have increased their demand rather significantly for food products and energy. Their populations dwarf the United States many times over. This and all these other conditions has helped contribute to the wildly fluctuating food prices on the world markets.
By now, you should have noticed that you are paying about twice as much for food in the supermarket as you did one or two years ago. Not every single product has doubled, but it will. It will because it is all a downstream output of cheap energy, which is no longer cheap and not easily replaced.
Not a single alternative energy source “discovery” or invention has the capability to produce the cheap and abundant energy that petroleum offered. Despite the hype and so-called ‘promises’ we’ve all seen, you should take special notice of the fact that none of them have come to market in ways which are even remotely impacting our global energy consumption.
Most alternative energy efforts are actually bogus, mostly smoke and mirrors and they do not remotely come close to paying for themselves in reasonable time frames. Investigative articles and research on this blog and in magazines such as Mother Earth News, Backwoods Home and others have revealed that converting to solar or wind energy has payback times in decades.
Not everyone believes this, so do your own research and convince yourself. The point is — we do not have any other cheap, plentiful resources to convert to energy. Not sunshine, not wind, not methane hydrates, not nuclear, not anything. This will all mean the energy — and all of its downstream ‘outputs’ will cost more and more and more as time goes on.
Many countries are already going dark — and I mean “lights out” as their powerplants shut down for a lack of fuel. The fuel they use is natural gas, coal and petroleum. They simply cannot find nor buy the fuel that they need to keep their power on. This situation is growing around the world.
In addition to this, we have many other factors in the world now taking place. Global resource depletion is severe and getting worse as populations keep growing. Our fisheries are in collapse in most if not all locations around the world, our levels of pollution, acidification and debris that we are causing in the world’s oceans is unbelievably bad. There are continental sized trash heaps now floating in the Pacific Ocean for example. Coral reefs and mangrove forest, home to the breeding ground for many fish species are in a state of collapse throughout most of the world.
We have overfished and depleted most of the wild ‘table fish’ stocks throughout the world. Ocean trawlers, in demand for global food supplies, are literally scraping the bottom of the ocean ‘barrel’ in attempts to meet world demand for fish products, going farther and farther out and are now found in some of the deep parts of the oceans, having already scrapped clean everything else.
Over 40% of the world depends on the worlds oceans for protein sources. There is absolutely no doubt that this cannot continue as fisheries collapse. Moreover, attempts at aquaculture to meet world food demand has actually hurt the world’s wild fish populations and is contributing to the depletion of game fish throughout the world.
It gets worse. Topsoil losses are already severe throughout the world and the cause for flooding, mudslides and reduced crop losses. Without the heavy application of fertilizers, a petroleum based product, current crop productions are simply not possible. Top soil depletion and salinization (salts) is already the cause in countries like Australia for significantly reduced harvest. Other countries are actually dealing with starvation as a result.
Drought is also now found throughout 1/3 of the entire globe and is also behind much of the severe food production drops. Drought is caused by many factors, including global climate change as our ice caps melt. Drought and the lack of fresh water will ultimately be the #1 factor facing most of humanity as our planet warms up.
The IPCC has constantly changed its estimates time and time again as it scrambles to record and update its data on global climate change. What was expected to take 100 years is now thought to take as little as 10. We are in serious, serious trouble and I’ve not even covered all of the factors and effects yet.
There’s more. Sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic is melting at an unbelievable rate. This is causing huge amounts of fresh water to dump into the oceans changing it’s chemical composition and makeup. Greenland and other sources, such as the glaciers found all over the world are fast disappearing at unbelievable rates. Gigantic sized “moulins” the size of Niagra Falls have opened up in the ice, dumping huge quantities of water into the ocean and below the ice itself. There is a very real possibility that entire sections of glacier the size of entire states could be floated right off into the ocean. In some place, the glaciers are already gone, forcing entire villages and towns to relocate in an effort to find drinking water.
The same is occurring now in the Antarctic too. Huge near continental size ice shelves are cracking and breaking off from the Antarctic ice sheet. The rate at which this is happening is very frightening to climatologist because it signals an irreversible trend that bodes serious danger for all life on earth.
This fresh water “dump” is contributing to the global climate change in several ways. The natural currents found in the oceans themselves are changing or even stopping. England for example is facing the effect of the North Atlantic current (thermholine) right now as its climate changes. Plankton are dying in huge numbers, a absolutely critical food element at the very bottom of the food chain. All life in the ocean is dependent upon this. Jellyfish are dramatically increasing as they take over new niches in the ocean sea life as natural predators are eliminated. The salinity of the oceans are changing, taking with it everything we’ve come to know and rely upon as the world’s ice continues to melt.
Ice also causes an albedo effect (reflection), less ice means less reflection and the planet heats up even more. Also, frozen in the Siberian permafrost is methane, a dangerous greenhouse gas. Just a few degrees more of warming will cause billions and billions of tons of greenhouse gas to “burp” out into the atmosphere, a exceedingly dangerous tipping point that will push our planet headlong into accelerated and irreversible warming.
The Amazon rain forest is in severe peril from over-logging and the practice of slash and burn to open up farmland. Huge tracts of land (80,000 acres per day) are being wiped out to grow “temporary crops” that deplete the soil in less then 3 years, irreversibly depleting the soil and leaving a dry savanna behind. As the lungs of the Earth, the loss of the most critical biohabitat on the planet will have absolutely huge effects on all life on earth, including us. Rain forest contain most of the worlds species of all life forms and help clean the air, absorbing gases like carbon dioxide and create oxygen. Without the world’s rain forests - we will all die.
It is my opinion, and that of many other world renown and respected scientist and researchers, that we have already passed many tipping points. In other words, it will only get worse, as we and our children deal with all of these effects. IN fact, it is expected to get much, much worse.
How much worse? We are already facing the near-extinction of human life on planet Earth. Within the next 100 years, billions of humans will die by other then natural causes. Most will die violent deaths or die by slow starvation, dehydration, disease, pandemics or war. This is exactly what the Pentagon has predicted in a secret report suppressed by the Bush Administration. Already, the world’s military powers and their governments are orchestrating themselves to commandeer the world’s remaining resources. This is exactly what the U.S. did in Iraq and exactly what is now occurring in the Arctic.
The demand for energy, food, water, soil and a habitable climate will be (and already is) so great that nations will war against other nations as they fight over the scraps that are now left. We have entered into a time where we have consumed too much, too quickly and created anthropogenic climate change (human caused) and it is neither reversible, or stoppable at this point. We utterly failed to listen to the warning that were given decades back, and now it really is too late.
Even the so-called Green movement or sustainability movement cannot stop this. It’s simply not possible anymore because of the tipping points we have already passed on population, pollution, energy, resource destruction, resource consumption and global climate change. These things are all our fault, they were caused by humans. There are other factors at work such as increased solar energy from the sun, but these have been broadly discounted as being the only factors that have caused the effects I have described. Almost everything now happening today can be directly attributed to human activity on Earth.
In essence, life as we know it is actually over. From this point on, we will decline. The meaning and the significance of this statement ought to be as well understood as we can allow. We have killed the planet as we knew it and what we have required and needed to sustain ourselves. We could have lived here indefinitely, but we didn’t. In the process, we have overpopulated the world with billions and billions of people that we can no longer feed, no longer provide enough medicine to, no longer properly clothe, house or even protect. It simply is not possible or desirable for us to go on doing what we’ve done before, because this is in fact, the root cause of all of these problems.
Starvation and war are already a way of life in many third-world countries. Most Americans have grown up and become accustomed to this, never really realizing exactly why this has happened. At the very core of these conflicts, is resource depletion. Humans demanded too much, too soon and have suffered as a result.
There are many other factors of course, but they all trace to a source issue and that issue is how humans have behaved on and towards this planet we call home. Where we are at today, and how we got there, and what we can do about any of it is the real issue.
It is my opinion that we can do little about any of it because the tipping points described above and their causes are now decades old. This is not something that “just happened” or happened even recently, this is something that was caused decades back, but it has taken this long for these effects to show themselves with our present levels of severity. Our present “effects” are almost totally unknown, but we can easily see how they could be worse since there are now so many more of us (at least 2 - 3 times the number).
This also means that the future effects will be significantly worse, which is exactly what is being predicted by climate scientists, research analysts and even investigative efforts by the Pentagon and many other sources.
All of the “above” has been based upon published data and reports and none of it is hearsay or wild speculation. Many Americans have never heard such things and many that do, simply do not believe them, or do not want to. There is very high levels of rampant and ridiculous denial taking place because what this all signifies is that life on Earth as we know it is over. This is all true. It is over and we are about to find this out.
Denial does not make any of this go away. Denial only means that you choose death over life, because that is what is really at issue here — your life. The planetary effects are already underway and unstoppable, immutable and utterly indifferent to your denial. The only thing you can change is yourself and what you alone are willing to do about it.
It is my opinion that there is indeed, very little that you can do. Underlying all of these issues is the human-centric that does not want to change. Even if you change, would it be enough? In a word — No, most definitely not. Like voting, your one vote doesn’t even matter, making you simply a part of something that is much, much bigger then yourself. A lifestyle change now will not change the outcome I have described. But irregardless of this, if you intend to survive this coming catastrophe, you will still need to change. It is the only option any of us have.
Therefore, I suggest you seriously consider these things with the utmost urgency. This is not “news” to some people, but it may indeed be news to you. Normal reactions are anger, denial, numbness and apathy. This is, believe it or not, part of the process of you assimilating this information. I suggest you don’t stay in any one stage too long, because you do not have time to dink around with this. You need time to assimilate, but you also need time to do what you can, while you still can.
Either you will resign yourself to this message, or you will discard it out of hand. The choice is yours. Resignation means that you can now move forward in your life and start figuring out what you intend to do about it. No rescue or plan is forthcoming from the powers-that-be (government) despite the empty promises and rhetoric they are all known for. This is something you alone are going to be responsible for, and it is entirely up to you and nobody else what you intend to do about it.
The mainstream media is only reporting a fraction of this news. This is unfortunate, but true. The American media is one of the most highly controlled and censored news sources on Earth. You can use the Internet to dig for information on all of these points if you like, or you can simply read all the sources linked on this and other blogs. Whatever you do, get information and get it now.
You can choose to resign yourself to your future fate, or you can choose to take responsibility for your life. I cannot sum this up any other way. I have attempted to keep this blog entry short so that you will read it — and take actions for your life. The choice is yours. There is a tremendous amount of information on this site to help you out. Read it.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Admin, this was poignant and an excellent encapsulation of many and diverse experts’ reports available to the ‘unwashed masses’, yet ignored. I wish, only, I did not stand on the same precipice, gazing out, and resigning myself that it could not have transpired any other way due to the fatal flaw that each human is short lived and cannot stretch his/her time line beyond their or their children’s time line (which unfortunately has contracted to a very near and present danger).
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:01 pm
I sent your “Warning to the World” to my family and friends. To me it gave a very good Reader’s Digest version of what is happening out there. Perhaps your words can better explain the situation than mine. I only hope that this wakes up at least one member of my family.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Sadly, this does cover the bases. It is frustrating to always be the person whose hair is on fire, the bad news guy.
The huge food demand is so far based only on the very earliest adopters, basically we who read this. Admin, you are going to burn down with demand.
For the first time I see significant signs everywhere I look in the conventional world, and as you say, for the first time, these are showing up in more mainstream places. There is more talk.
These factors are the first tsunami that is breaking over traditional American hubris. People are now taking me seriously on this “big message” as well. Denial is wearing away. The broad sense that huge change is afoot is really coming on. People are terrified.
I believe this year we will see broad-based failure of rice crops many places in the world. With no fall back supplies of food to import, it is reasonable to assume we might see widespread famine this year. Will we see some misguided mass suicide like nuclear war? I think it is in play.
I can’t let go of the fact that today’s global warming is based on gas emitted 25 years ago. We have well over 1 degree more heat already in the bank, more with the positive feedback loops that are ramping up and ramifying. So far, all the positive feedback loops have made the best forecasts underestimates — it is much worse, and nobody can predict it, we are not that smart. Likely, it is over now, it just hasn’t happened. And as you say, it is quite possible, no human will survive this.
This is just my gut feeling, but I have the real sense that the North Atlantic Current is grinding to a halt now and the science is not measuring it quite yet (there is always a lag). Will it will stop with the melting of the polar ice at 2010 or so? Everything seems to point to it.
I worry that the huge snows experienced this year are evidence of this in part. Will the northern states become uninhabitable? Seems like a lot of roof collapse
I picked this home in Arkansas in part because I thought it was about right on latitude for huge climate changes. BUT, it is all guesswork on my part. Probably at best, this is my elaborate flavor of denial.
As you say Admin, nothing can or will stop this. Hansen is saying we need to stop emitting tomorrow and sequester 60 odd PPM of global warming gas. Is he kidding? Has he ever engineered anything? Not remotely possible, this kind of talk is denial by a brilliant man.
The smartest among us are not able to face this. I wonder if it is almost outside our capacity as humans to think this negatively. It must be in our genes to see hope when there is none, or our species would have died out long ago.
Lovelock says any engineering cycle from science to design to production takes 40 years. We don’t have that kind of time. Besides, this is pure crap. We can’t engineer a damn thing at global scale, that is ridiculous on its face.
Maybe the next couple of years will be like how we imagine nuclear war would be. The living will envy the dead. Honestly I don’t know. Maybe I don’t want to know at some deep level.
The only question in my mind is will we survive at all. I don’t think so, none of us. It seems imaginary to write this. It’s that irrational optimism gene flaring up I think. The gene is the one that keeps others from seeing and hearing what is obvious to all of us. Really there are no solutions.
At least, we will be able to drive. Gawd. We are truly mad.
MD
March 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Michael has a good point, Denial is wearing away. Sadly, as you may recall, Anger is generally the next step. Allegedly “random” shootings are already becoming commonplace here in the US.
We will all live in interesting times.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Admin sentiments are exactly echoed in one of Carolyn Bakers linked stories put out today by the Guardian.
Titled: “Enjoy life while you can” http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange/print
To anyone not already aware, I recommend Carolyn Bakers daily newsletter.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Does misery really love company? Is this the point of our vain attempts to warn friends and loved ones? We know that no matter what we do, no matter the preps we make, that surviving collapse is unlikely. I’m now thinking that my endless warnings are a DISservice to those I love. If they are comfortable with their life, blissfully ignorant and deluded as it may be, why upset their apple cart with news they can do little to affect?
March 4th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Who’s really being disserved here? We warn because we care. If we did not care, we would not warn them.
If there is any disservice to be found, it will be by those that refuse to hear, or those that refuse to tell, but not by those who are engaged in the effort.
Whether we survive the collapse is unknown. Our likelihood diminishes all the time — primarily because we are not doing anything about it such as changing our lifestyles, our culture and our civilization.
But giving up and accepting our “fate” is very misleading and dangerous, because it really means that we fail to accept our responsibilities and our role in the present and the future. And it also means we accept our death and our continuing role in destroying the planet.
In effect, we are also saying to all possible future generations, “fuck you”, we don’t care about you or what happens to you or anybody but ourselves, not even our own kids.
Those that deny doing anything sit firmly in this camp. Their lack of willingness to change, adapt and try sends a message to all of future humanity that says “we felt like we had no chance at all, so we decided to squander all the rest of it away anyhow and you were totally unimportant to us”.
Nobody knows who or where there might be those that will survive this, but quitting simply is not an option except for the uncaring and the lazy.
You may indeed be tired of warning people like I am (and I’m about done) but that doesn’t mean you should quit your try either. We must try, for try is all we can do. It is the one thing left to us in our power to act upon. We only need to be careful that our “try” does not make our situation worse, which is why I refute the so-called “techno-fix” options.
All we need to do (and it’s not that damned hard) is to stop contributing to the problem. Really, how hard can that be? The Earth can and will heal itself without our so-called contribution or help. We just need to stop contributing to what we keep doing.
This means human industrialized activity needs to stop, worldwide. Of course it won’t, but those humans that learn how to do this are going to be the group of humans that will be able to accept and adapt to the future, because it will happen anyway.
We know we cannot stop this, but we also know we can only change the one thing that needs to be changed and that is ourselves. This is exactly where the “try” must be applied, with us.
Collapse is coming, it’s now irreversible. So is life, it’s also irreversible unless your willing to accept an early death. We try, we do what we can by stopping what we’re doing and learn to live differently. Those progeny among us that learn from our example will be better equipped to adapt.
It’s pretty simple really. The idea that we absolutely “must” hang onto this present life at all costs is just sheer stupidity and deep seated arrogance and selfishness.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Admin is correct about everything he says. However, too much time is being spent ringing ones hands about the uninformed. The fact that the lumpen don’t get it is a good thing, not bad. If even a small percentage of the population got serious about what was going on there would be no food in the stores, no clothing, no guns or ammo, no water barrels, no tools, no seeds, no anything. We have the great fortune of seeing the future and the opportunity to prepare for it. As the saying goes there is nothing wrong with panic as long as you do it before everyone else. I don’t like what the future holds but I will go down fighting and don’t plan to spend any time waxing poetic about the human spirit.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Update to my earlier comment. I did not want to imply that Admin spends too much time discussing the uninformed. The people posting on this blog do. Admin gets it!!!
March 4th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Javelin makes a good point that it’s a good thing most aren’t aware, or the stores and shops would be stripped bare of some of the tools, books, etc., that we are still busy accumulating. Looks like that’s about to change.
Often I look at almost all the things inside my/our house and realize this stuff really has no value because when the power goes down for that last time and there’s no fuel available for any vehicle, we may be suddenly faced with a lifestyle that isn’t exactly as we had envisioned. Winter in the colder climates will be the most difficult. One of the biggest problems with living in the future will be that these houses where most of us currently reside are so geared to fossil fuel use that they will actually be more of a hassle than not.
At least the few remaining Kalihari Bushmen who still retain the old ways, and who haven’t been shoved from their lands, have a better change at long-term survival than any of us.
Incidentally I read on educate-yourself.org that the queen of England is buying up a bunch of land in Colorado under different names, because she/they know their current locale will be totally uninhabitable in the not-too-distant future.
March 5th, 2008 at 6:17 am
Great post over at the oil drum today on grain if anyone is interested.
liked this comment especially:
“When the U.S. exports corn it is losing energy since corn is inappropriately priced for it’s energy content. Being an energy importer, it must then replace the lost corn energy with higher priced energy in the form of oil or natural gas. Either the price of corn should go to about $9.00/bushel or the price of oil/LPG/natural gas should fall. The markets can not have a long term situation where the price of a commodity is so far below it’s energy content. If this continues, the U.S. should stop exporting corn and turn it into ethanol. Higher grain prices benefit the world’s poor since so many of them are engaged in subsistence farming. Those that are not should be. Packing them in cities with government subsidies for food can not continue where this is practiced. It is a recipe for disaster in a post Peak Oil world with rising energy prices.”
————————–
Higher commodity prices enable the local growers here and the world over to make a living, otherwise they don’t. Whether prices rise because of the ethanol or not isn’t the more interesting question.
We are paying a very high hidden price for providing this ‘cheap’ food in depleted topsoil, groundwater, collapsed local food economies the world over, pollution, energy depletion …etc.
Any other industry would set a price above what their costs are, farmers aren’t allowed to do that- collectively, the more they produce, the less they get per unit. It is a system designed to fail in a slow grinding way.
March 5th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Actually, I’m slowly beginning to think that Rhino is correct, no sense in upsetting people who clearly do not want to be upset, becoming a Cassandra (in the Greek tragic sense) in the process, and generally dragging others into a state of self-induced personal misery. History shows that no one welcomed collapse when it occurred (Tainter, Diamond, Catton), there is already so little opportunity for individuals to actually doing anything meaningful about it (per Admin), and that opportunity diminishes daily (again, per Admin).
Sometimes ignorance really IS bliss.
If the exact date and manner of your own death were knowable, would you really want to know? Psychologists has found that most do not, going all the way back to Freud and Jung, (and to some degree the ancient Greeks again), so this is not a new phenomenon.
Perhaps simply detaching from the brain-numbing collective and living life to the fullest, while you can, is the lesson to be learned here. Take a green pill, as Matt Savinar (LATOC) is fond of saying.
March 5th, 2008 at 9:35 am
I am fortunate that my wife is 100% committed to the program. In fact she gets on my case about things like not buying enough superpails of food and ammo. I can’t complain to loudly about being in that situation. I completely understand the problem about alerting family members. I have the same problem but I have moved on because you can’t spend too much of your energy on lost causes. This great challenge we face should be viewed as a contest. Survival is about ruthless advantage over rivals. I know that sounds terrible but these unprepared and hungry people will kill you for your Snickers candy bar. We have the greatest weapon to survive and that is knowledge and awareness of what is coming. Take advantage of the time that is left and do everything you can to survive, to protect your family, to prevail at all costs. Get angry and get ready to defeat every challenge that we will face in the not to distant future
March 5th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Regarding global warming and future warming - while it is correct to note that warming to date is due to decades past GHGs, another factor that climatologists understand but don’t discuss much publicly is global dimming. Global dimming is reduction in sunlight reaching the earth’s surface due to pollutants in the air. Global dimming actually suppresses the warming. Based on data I have seen, in the event of industrial collapse and the total cessation of pollution emitted into the air we will see a near instantaneous 3-9 degree (Fahrenheit) rise in global temperatures.
Over the last century global dimming roughly kept global warming in check. But dimming is apparently a linear function while warming is exponential and warming has begun to overpower dimming’s effects.
There was an excellent video on global dimming by the BBC but what got me were the things they left unsaid, such as the 3 degree instant rise in US temperatures during the post-9/11 no-fly period means that global warming’s total impact is already much higher than expected.
And of course we are seeing that in the far north where pollution is far lower and temperatures have risen much more drastically. In the US, sunlight reaching the earth’s surface is 10% less than it was a century ago yet temperatures are rising anyway. What happens when those pollutants stop being emitted? Worse, in Asia, dimming has reduced sunlight reaching the earth by over 30%! How hot will Asia get when industries shut down?
Global dimming has been accidentally protecting us from ourselves. What happens when the dimming ends, as it inevitably must as society collapses? GHGs stay in the atmosphere for centuries. Pollutants of particle size sufficient to cause dimming stay in the atmosphere for weeks.
Draw your own conclusion but this is partly why Lovelock says the only surviving humans will be in the far northern and southern reaches.
March 5th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
For those who refer to the elections as (s)elections, the MoneyMatters blog (which has a great understanding of the moneyed elite) thinks Obama just sunk his chances:
March 5th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
I would urge all to read the MoneyMatters blog for ‘what is happening’. As Admin has stated, even gold will be worthless; here’s why:
March 5th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
to @Greyzone (where is Lonewolf?): thou dost grasp at straws. We are beyond the tipping point! (and we dost pray tell it is not so, sew what evidence can yea present beyond the bard Hansen?).
March 5th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
I limit what time I get online at home, but since I do not watch TV, it is more than a few years ago. You got my attention on the defending stance a while back with the one against one changing to one against a thousand thing, still haven’t digested that yet. That got my attention, and respect.
There are those moving out to the country and attempting a crash course in self sustaining, not the best move. Learning as you go is a bit late. Stocking food from those who know how to prepare is probably better, plus blending in the environment they know how to blend in to. Few people could actually grow everything they need, let alone safely prepare it for storage, let alone seeds. My wife & I grow about 80% of what we eat, but then again, it takes 100% to live. What may seem odd or survivalist to some, is normal for others. To me, dependence or buying week to week is weird. You got a good service going here, hopefully people will listen. What I see coming around the near corner ain’t good. The odds of survival may not be great, but not being prepared is zero, waiting until the last minute is zero. I picture us looking much like Africa, feeding stations, sickness, disease, pure obedience. Weak, sick, and hungry people are at the mercy of those empowered, and the harshness of nature. The brutality of the near future will be immense. If you can’t eat it, wear it, shoot it, use it, it will be worthless, gold, fiat money, etc. Those also looking to buy hugh tracts of land, I found out that the government can either take it from you, or make you a tenant like farmer, I’m in real estate and searched that over and found that out, not good. Get out of debt, stay put, stay stocked, and adapt to your surroundings.
March 5th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Aft, apparently you misunderstand me. I agree we are beyond the tipping points. My point was that the true measure of current warming is being masked by global dimming and when that masked is ripped away by economic dislocation and social upheaval, the soaring temperatures will demonstrate just how bad it really is. Like admin, I believe it’s simply too late. But even more, I believe we are farther along the curve than most think we are and only temporarily being partially spared the full effects through a complete accident. When this accidental benefit vanishes (and it will), the temperature impact will be brutal.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:12 am
aft queries, “where is Lonewolf”
answer: “he’s here, in the winter den (of iniquity) watching horny turkeys strut their stuff as spring approaches and dreaming of all the tasty chicks to soon be hatched (consumed). Keeping the other eye open for the lion (cougar) that has the unmitigated audacity to prowl on my ground. Other than that, he’s in a don’t give a flying-fuck (aka bushing-shit) about the impinging plight-of-man mode - the sooner there is far far fewer bipedal beasts the better. Collectively, huma-rhoids are fully deserving of our fate … with a cherry on top.
Besides, y’all are doing a great job of presaging the near term future without my constant prodding.