Lonewolf sent me this article link, Peak Oil and Famine: Four Billion Deaths.

Read this first, because both Lonewolf and I have some commentary to make regarding the several assumptions made by the author.

Goodchild errs on several points. The Earth’s population is most definitely NOT “automatically adjusted” to the Earth’s carrying capacity. Not even close. We have been in population overshoot for several decades now. All of the generations alive today are part of the population overshoot, which is in excess of 4 - 5 billion people.

This has been permitted due to energy production and the ability to convert that energy into food. In the petroleum era, this has been almost entirely the result of the symbiotic relationship between oil and agriculture. However, peak oil has already occurred, and the planet’s population decline hasn’t even gotten started yet. This is because we are still existing on the dregs of our former production. This includes stored energy in the form of food and the ongoing production of food of oil-dependent mega-farms all over the world.

This food and remaining oil is now being rapidly consumed, and reports from around the world are screaming to be heard. We are in a global food decline, and this situation will become more serious with each passing month.

The coming “famine deaths” will be extreme as energy sources decline. Combined with climate change and we’ve got severe problems headed our way. Four billion deaths is a real number, but not in the next hundred years. This is much more likely to happen in the next 20 years.

I’ve pointed out before that all the things we take for granted, such as entertainment, democracy, “rights”, leisure, even national identity, are all permitted because of “abundance”. Abundance affords these things. Abundance depends upon energy. Energy can be stored energy, such as liquid sunshine (petroleum) or current energy such as solar energy. The problem with solar energy is it isn’t enough for that “rainy day” when things go catastrophically wrong. A single failed crop season for a subsistence living society could easily mean the devastation of that society.

Our society has pushed forward, year by year in population, infrastructure and importantly, it’s dependency upon stored energy. If that store of energy is threatened, depleted or even destroyed, the entire society it has built will crumble and fall — quickly. Four billion deaths or more could happen in less then a single decade.

Few believe this could happen, but I’m in Lovelock’s camp. I believe it can and will happen, soon. The global resource wars among the nations are already underway. The race to the Arctic is a desperate gambit to preserve the status quo is all over the news. The utter complete failure of the oil industry to switch to renewable energy is already legendary.

Declining energy supplies are already impacting food production all over the world. The danger is obvious — how soon will our constant consumption outstrip our ability to simply feed ourselves, thereby causing famine?

Here are Lonewolf’s comments (emphasis mine):

IMO The author has a few critical assumptions wrong. He apparently presumes that remaining oil will be more or less equally distributed (on a per capita basis) and also employed directly in food production to a similar extent as it has in the past (recent history). I ’say’ neither of these will be the case. The scarcer oil becomes the more extreme the price - the price to supply relationship is NOT linear (FAR from it). The higher the price, the fewer than can afford it - meaning access the production derived thereof. The ultra-elite will be relatively unaffected in their enclaves for at least a generation.

The ‘middle class’ (what remains of it) will be rapidly driven into poverty and suffer effects of malnutrition and disease. The poor will not ‘be a problem’ as they will drop dead (like always). Who (here) gives a ‘flying bush’ if pigmented peoples across the globe drop like flies so long as “the American way-of-life’ is relatively unaffected (which is another delusion altogether).

As oil becomes increasingly valuable and fewer people can afford food, less will be used in agriculture pursuits (IMO) while the uber-rich will continue flying in their private jets, etc (use an increasing percentage to maintain their ‘privileged’ status. An ever greater percentage of the oil produced will also go into a) ‘medicines’ and plastics, b) into military activity (murderous adventures of the permanent petrol wars), c) hoarded by the ‘elite’ and/or corporate ‘interests’ and/or d) in vain attempts to keep the lights on (grid connected).

His calculation omits ‘natural’ deaths and effects of climate induced crop ‘losses’ as well as pestilence and warfare in all it’s guises and forms. He postulated 3.6 Billion famine deaths this century and another 1 to 2 billion in the 22nd century. Ha ha ha. I say he is totally naive. I ’see’ that many deaths or more due to famine, climates shifts and warfare in my remaining ‘expected’ lifetime (20 years or less). Combined the devastations of famine, climate, and war and what do you get? Disease. Epidemic pestilence. So subtract another billion of two within decades - not centuries. I ’say’ is equally possible to reduce the human population to below 1 Billion within a decade - especially if Herr Furher and his spawn have their way.

Either I am FAR far far more cynical and pessimistic than ‘your average doomer’ or even the ‘alarmists’ don’t see (won’t look at) the ‘big picture’.

Peak Oil is Peak Food but it’s also so much more. It’s Peak Delusions, Peak Fairy Tale, Peak (War and) Peace, Peak Pain, Peak Freak-Out, Peak Panic, Peak Life (death), Peak People, Peak Everything you and I have ever known. The future will NOT be a slightly more intense version of the present. The future will be unrecognizable to all but the top 1% or less of the ‘West’. With no experience/precedence whatsoever with what is to come. people will do what people do best - panic (flight and/or fight) The future is an entirely different planet than we have or can know and therefore humans will become a very different species over a evolutionary instant (derived from a handful of remote indigenous peoples who may survive).

I very much fear that he is right. The relationship modern civilization has to abundant, cheap energy is being consistently underestimated by even the “doomers”. Our ability to simply feed ourselves will not just switch over to “sustainable methods” like many seem to think, and even if it could, this totally fails to take into account all the other factors that will affect our survival.

I have a few more thoughts on this theme: Many seem to envision a transition to a “new world”, that will gently sweep out the old. I disagree, I don’t think it’s possible or will even be allowed. A self-sufficient society is a society that does not need the old vanguard — do you honestly believe that they will allow this without a fight? The United States has made a special point of destroying self-sufficient peoples all over the world — do we really believe that this will now change and they will actually help usher this in?

Collapse is exactly what they want to keep us fighting over the resources that they control. Self-sufficiency removes that control and is the reason why it’s not even allowed today. Collapse will destroy the weak, poor and poorly prepared, but it will not destroy the elite. Not right away and perhaps, not ever if they can manage to maintain their positions as plantation owners.

That is the plan. It’s already evidenced around the world as the corporate conglomerates take over the nations, destroying entire countries for plunder and profit, and gazillionaires buy up the world’s remaining resources. A poor, dependent population is a controllable, enslaved population.

Those who are waiting for a new world of abundance and free energy, self-sufficiency and green, healthy living are going to be waiting a long, long time. This will not happen until the old vanguard (and their suckling progeny) are totally destroyed.

The status quo isn’t simply going to go away because the world is running out of food and oil. The future promises to be dark, violent, brutal and ugly, far beyond what most people dare to fear.

We’ve been setup. All of us. Understand that, and plan accordingly. It’s the only chance you will ever have.

I can only imagine what Mountain House food cost 37 years ago. But rocketing food prices are cause for real concern. Mountain House had a September price increase and another one is coming in January.

I’m more concerned about the growing global food shortages (if you need a password, try username: bushsucks, password: bushsucks) because there will come a point where the supermarkets simply won’t have what you want. This happens in every disaster, the stores shelves are stripped bare in a matter of hours. What will happen in a national disaster or manufactured “crisis” situation?

Food bought now just makes good sense. You simply can’t go wrong, food is a better investment then gold, silver or real estate (really). There are a number of information pages on my website that cover some of the common questions regarding storable food.

I definitely don’t recommend you store your food in an attic or garage, constant, cooler or colder temperatures are better then high temperatures to ensure long life and nutrition.

It’s a safe bet — food will never be any cheaper then it is today. Either you have some food security, or you will forever remain a victim of rising food prices and coming global shortages. Get your food storage NOW.

I received this article in the email, Aerosol and Electromagnetic Weapons In The Nuclear Age which is a pretty interesting read. I’ve noted the strange “trails” in the sky myself, many times. But of particular interest is the health issues that are caused by this type of activity.

Lately, I’ve been suffering from some ongoing dizzy spells that appeared suddenly. And my cognitive abilities have been impaired, as has my eyesight. A visit to the doctor didn’t turn up anything, nor did the chiropractor I tried help either. I can’t put my finger on it, not yet, but I’m a bit suspicious of the sudden onset nature of this whole thing.

Amy Worthington also has another article, The Radiation Poisoning Of America. The bombardment of electromagnetic radiation that we are all exposed to is reason for serious concern.

Just a little reading on the dangers of cell phone and microwave tower transmissions will make you stop and wonder what the hell we are doing to ourselves. I’m using a wireless Internet connection, but it’s pointed the wrong way. However, that’s not the case for the wireless router that I also use, the electromagnetic signal is penetrating my entire house.

Worthington and many others have also written about the depleted uranium death toll. There have been 73,846 Gulf War deaths already. The majority of these are “non-deployed” personnel. This is more then the soldiers killed in Viet Nam.

There are also 14,874 “undiagnosed illnesses” and 1,620,906 disability claims by Gulf War vets (1,212,995 among the non-deployed). These numbers are staggering. Project these numbers now for the current war in Iraq and Afghanistan. A huge percentage of America is sick and dying.

I see this as a national crisis that is being widely ignored. But like all crisis, it’s not something that will just “go away” by pretending it didn’t happen or that it’s not ongoing.

[Filed under Tyranny and Terrorism because we sure as hell didn’t do this to ourselves - Admin]

This article should shock the hell out of you: American Kids, Dumber Then Dirt

I have long wanted to write about the experiences I have had with the “public”. It mirrors what is covered in the article above. I swear, a huge percentage of Americans cannot read. If they can read, they cannot comprehend what they’ve read. Nor can they form a coherent question or understand the answer their given. Projections? Forget about it, forward thinking is unheard of.

Oh well, collapse will undoubtedly clean the gene pool. Those who cannot accept or believe the reality of what is happening in our world today won’t make it anyway.

Here’s another read: C02 Levels Begin Accelerated Climb

Informative, but inaccurate. Measurements being taken are reflecting activity from decades past, which take a long time to show up in environmental effects. For the past 20 years, human civilization has churned out billions more tons of dangerous toxins and greenhouse gases while destroying the natural carbon sinks all over the world.

The “debate” on whether or not we have passed “trigger points” is utterly pointless when you realize that we are consistently underestimating the dangerous conditions we have caused. Like the Arctic ice melt that was supposed to take 100 years, but turned out to be less then 10 years.

Nothing less then a total global shutdown of all human industrial and polluting activity could stand a chance of stopping what’s coming.

With the shocking loss of the Arctic sea ice this summer and several new reports this week that oceans and tropical forests are now absorbing less of the world’s steadily rising carbon emissions, our collective train wreck appears to have already tipped into fast forward.

If we are in “fast forward” (and we are), then hitting “reverse” can ONLY be achieved by a total shutdown. Which we know will never, ever happen. Here is a teaser:

[Rachel’s introduction: The fossil fuel corporations have a plan for us, and it does not include any substantial investment in renewable solar energy. Their plan is focused on “geo-engineering” — which means re-engineering the oceans, the atmosphere and the earth itself to make it possible to continue burning fossil fuels. U.S. EPA is on board with the plan.]

By Peter Montague

It now seems clear that the coal and oil industries are not going to allow the United States to curb global warming by making major investments in renewable sources of energy. These fossil fuel corporations simply have too much at stake to allow it. Industry’s Plan For Us

Recall the “vested interest” discussions I’ve posted here. We are screwed. I don’t care if 10,000,000 people stopped driving their cars today, it won’t make any difference at all. Our only salvation is collapse. It is the only thing that will bring down the corporate control on our planet’s future and a halt to the dubious “advancement” of industrial civilization.

The “too little, too late” syndrome applies to individuals, businesses, corporations and government. Nothing less then a total cooperative effort to stop global warming will stand any chance at all of actually working. Yet this is a delusional pipe dream too, and I’m not smoking it.

I’ve been accused of “wanting” collapse by some ignoramuses. What I want is for the insanity to stop and nothing less then collapse will accomplish that. The reality is, the planet does not need our “help” and never did or ever will. It needs to be left alone to it’s natural cycles and variations.

Human activity is the exact opposite of this. Industrial civilization is a blight upon the planet, permitted only as long as it’s environmental effects could be tolerated. We are now past that point. We take measurements of the effects and changes that started occurring decades ago. What we aren’t doing is accurately projecting what this will mean in just 10 years. This is why we are having to constantly reassess our estimates of how bad the damage is. And we’re still getting it wrong.

James Lovelock was right. Go look it up. I’m not going to contribute anymore to the tidal wave of dumb. Go read those stupid proposals in that last link. These people are just too stupid to realize that they can’t control the planet and preserve their polluting industries.

This article is very important for the reasons I’ll state below: Lengthy SWAT standoff ends with suicide by chemist.

A lot of people have argued that in a severe economic collapse, the banks won’t force foreclosure on the tens of thousands, probably millions of bankrupt “owners”. This case proves exactly the opposite and supports the position I have always taken. They WILL come after you and your home and they will forcibly remove you from it. If you die in the process, well, hey, you were squatting, right?
Whether or not you choose to end your life as a result of something like this is up to you. I’d have tried a different tactic myself, but hey, that’s me. Like some others have said here, I’d take a few of the bastards with me. Oops, that’s a thought crime…

Debt CAN get you killed, or at least harassed enough to the point where you will wish you were dead… If you’ve got something “owned” by someone else, then you’ll need to clear this debt ASAP with our ever more worthless “dollars”, or they’ll come after it sooner or later. Don’t think they won’t, this case demonstrates this fact.

As a side note, I wonder how many of those burned California homes were in foreclosure?

This was expected: House Passes Thought Crime Bill.

The government is getting very desperate to stay in control as everything falls apart.

Oh, and you should read this too, as you ponder the implications of this insanity: White House edited CDC climate testimony.

Warning — the following is a “thought crime” –

This bill is completely insane. It literally allows the government to define any and all crimes including thought crime as violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism. Obviously, this legislation is unconstitutional on a number of levels and it is clear that all 404 representatives who voted in favor of this bill are traitors and should be removed from office immediately. The treason spans both political parties and it shows us all that there is no difference between them. The bill will go on to the Senate and will likely be passed and signed into the law by George W. Bush. Considering that draconian legislation like the Patriot Act and the Military Commissions Act have already been passed, there seems little question that this one will get passed as well. This is more proof that our country has been completely sold out by a group of traitors at all levels of government.

The “tyranny” category on this blog is a “thought crime”.  You have been warned.

The problem is that most have no concept as to how soon the transformation will start and how much their lives are going to change. The President, his government, the Congress, the oil companies, and indeed the media have left us with the impression that we have the transformation to an alternative fuel future well in hand. Bills mandating and increasing the supply of ethanol have been passed or are in the hopper. The President makes periodic references to hydrogen-powered cars. The oil companies allege there is no problem and the media takes it all in and remains mute.

The peak oil problem is not that most of us don’t recognize a transition is coming - if for no other reason than reducing our dependence on “foreign oil” - it is that we don’t recognize that the transition will come soon and will inflict more economic pain and social dislocation on the American people than we have experienced since the Civil War or perhaps ever. Thus the message from Houston was “it will be soon and it will be bad, very bad,” much sooner and much worse than 99 percent of the American people realize. The Peak Oil Crisis

I’ve been busy with my own plans and preparations, finding little time and admittedly, little ambition to write what has already been repeatedly said on this blog. This is because I know what’s coming and how bad it’s going to get. Telling the world over and over again about it is proving to be an exercise in head-butting futility.

I’m still reading Diamond’s book when I can. He reminds us, most of the former civilizations that preceded our present one have all collapsed in less then a ten year period. We are, by my estimates, in year two or possibly year three of collapse already.

It will be bad, very, very bad because we STILL aren’t preparing for it like we should. It is clear that the ground is rushing up towards us faster and faster as we reach terminal velocity, but a huge percentage of people still believe they are relatively safe and will survive (somehow) unscathed. Right now, all they can understand is the rushing sound of the wind whistling past their ears. What they don’t want to understand or comprehend is the sudden catastrophic impact that is coming.

There is now little point in berating the entire issue for those who refuse to see with their own eyes and hear with their own ears. Disaster awaits them, they (really) cannot be saved.

This is the reason, as many now know, I will not be updating the blog with the daily news events. There’s too many to document, too many indicators and signs of the times to even bother with. If people don’t get it yet, then they probably never will. Certainly not in time to truly help themselves.

It takes YEARS to make preparations. We don’t have such time left anymore before it all unravels. It only makes sense now to concentrate earnestly on what can be done.  It’s time to choose the survivors, including even YOU.

You decide for yourself, but I’m only working with those who are aware of what is going on. The time for educating, postulating and posturing about the issue is a waste of time. As harsh as this sounds, we need to consider our time and our effort and where it is now best spent. Do we try and save those who cannot see, hear or listen by willful ignorance, or do we try and save ourselves and those who will listen?

The theater is on fire and it’s time to head for the exits, but the movie is still playing. The enraptured audience is oblivious to the real life theme being played out in the movie, as it depicts the hero vainly trying to warn the town of the looming disaster that awaits.

We have such hero’s in real life, popping up all over the place, but hey, the movie is still playing! So what if you don’t get to see the end? Leave now. The money you spent is already gone anyway.

Do you understand? The American way of life is OVER. The American Dream - kaput. Retirement? Gone. Peace? Gone. Comfort? Gone. Easy living? Gone. Motoring? Gone. Vacation, recreation and entertainment? Gone. It’s OVER already. Get used to it.

The money you spent, “invested” and saved, the toys you bought, that gargantuan mortgage that you just knew you could pay for, that transfer to the big city for that big promotion, it’s gone. Flushed, swirled and trashed into worthless piles of useless bits and pieces and useless nothingness. If it does not feed you, clothe you, keep you warm and dry and provide you with real, physical security, and give you the opportunity to take care of your basic needs, you don’t need it.

I could tell you to look around and smell the coffee, or just watch the nightly news, but they’re still babbling about “recovery” to their captive audience of brainwashed millions. Quite some time back, I had shared that there would be temporary reprieves and plateaus that would appear to offer some relief, but only for a short while. California will (stupidly) rebuild and Atlanta will get their rain, but collapse is still occurring, deepening and widening all over the world.

The gigantic chasms opening up in the Greenland ice are perfect parallels to the deepening crisis of collapse all over the world. They are permitting huge pools of water to literally float the ice off into the ocean very rapidly. This is also how fragile and easily destroyed our civilization is. One day, it will simply float off the bedrock of its fragmented foundation and belief systems, and split apart into a thousand pieces as it slides into the darkness of the deep.

Don’t be foolish. If you are not working towards your survival, you are planning only for your death.

There are many people that are depending on us, and a lot of them, we don’t even know yet. Our efforts are the only efforts being made — do you realize the terrifying significance of this? I do, and it is why I’m not going to waste another minute of my life on arguing what should be perfectly obvious. Our civilization is in terminal decline and will collapse, very soon and it will be bad, very bad. We are all facing early survival or an early death, which would you prefer?

Some news: Remember the Liar in Chief claiming “We don’t torture” ? And US Food Riots Much Closer Than You Think.

This idiot on a soapbox thinks global warming is a hoax. Nobody ever said politicians had any brains. I swear you could hit these fools on the head with a 2×4 and they’d find a way to market it to a gullible public.

The Future Is Drying Up demonstrates that intelligence outwits ignorance every time. Oceans are soaking up less CO2.

From Culture Change:

This ‘toon says quite a lot. Missing is the “Entertainment”, “Sex Appeal”, “American Dream” and “21st Century Forest”, but the pictures would of course, stay the same.

Be sure to read Our American way of life is not sustainable.

First off, and most important, I would like to express my sincere thanks and appreciation to everyone who has taken the time to write and support this blog and the effort represented here. I am deeply moved by your support, your generosity and your kindness. For all this and much more, I am grateful to each and everyone of you.

This blog was never intended to be a private playground, but participatory adventure in learning, sharing and even some laughter from time to time.

I have been contemplating what each of you have shared publically and privately. It is very clear that this blog has reached many more people then I had realized. Website stats are somewhat misleading. Site traffic is best measured by actual activity from registered users which has been traditionally low here (this blog has enabled registration to keep out spammers, of which many thousands have tried to hack this board).

My goal for this blog and the old forum was a test project, a demonstration of what could be accomplished online. It was very revealing and proof of what I have known for a long time. Over thirteen years ago, I had written my thoughts about the Internet and how it would fail to change the world where it really mattered. I’ve been online since the early 1980’s, migrating to the “real” Internet when it became available in the 90’s. The Internet has been really useful for sharing information, but it’s also become the placebo for real change. This still remains true today.

The Internet hasn’t failed, the failure is actually us. The information and news presented on the Internet simply wasn’t enacted upon in sufficient numbers and efficient measures to effect necessary change before it was too late. This is our fault (more on this later).

It is also very clear that a hugely incredible need for real survival solutions exists with all of us. We are all struggling with the same perplexing and puzzling issues and lack of adequate answers. The global changes now occurring respect no one. We will all be equally impacted. Only those who can afford to “buy” their way through the collapse will have a measure of insulation (but only for a time). The rest of us will actually wind up better off — because necessity will force us to learn to do for ourselves what we should have always been doing. Now, we won’t have any choice and will either hit the ground running, learning and doing, or desperately (and foolishly) try to save ourselves via our wealth.

Therefore, a hugely important change is necessary in our lifestyles, habits, skills and expectations. This is nothing less then a metamorphous. We must change, quickly, and forever. We represent the cutting edge in the future survival of our entire species. Without us, those who will embrace these changes, no modern human on Earth will survive.

I’m deliberately excluding indigenous tribes and cultures, it is unknown yet how they will fare. Many are already deeply impacted by rising sea levels and melting glaciers causing severe water shortages. Their “adaption” in some cases is deeply tragic — they’re moving to the cities to survive, which will also soon be facing collapse. The life skills they have long known and understood will serve them best when they return back to the rural and remote lands from which they came.

Others will continue as they always have for thousands of years, and will probably do just fine “without us”. This should be a huge lesson for the modern world.

Modern survival will continue for some time yet, as the last dregs of global resources are harvested for human consumption. The critical paradigm shift in the lifestyle and living habits for modern dwellers will only happen when acute shortages force their attention.

We are all butterfly’s, captured in the chrysalis cage of our own doing. This generation is a defining generation, like all generations before it, but uniquely appointed to tremendous task: navigating the global collapse. Will we survive it? That’s hard to say. The jury hasn’t even convened yet.

I came to realize over time, doing was so much more important then saying. That is ultimately what I am all about — doing. Words can only convey and accomplish so much.

Thank you all for your support. I am forging ahead with all possible speed to accomplish what I’ve long advocated — self-sufficient and sustainable living to the best of my ability. My “system” dependency troubles me, because I recognize this as a weak link and a dreaded ongoing support to a dying culture.

I am working on several venues right now. I am not at liberty to say what they are, but they are part of my own metamorphous.  Stay tuned, there will be more open threads, and more updates and entries to read.

The news is still “happening” (of course!).  Post the important and informative here if you like. I’m still monitoring the blog for comments.  Reminder: all links require pre-approval to keep the spammers out.