As the collapse deepens across the world, there is a rising tide of concern among crashwatch bloggers that the collapse will not happen soon enough. This story is a prime example of why a long, slow crash will have a worsening impact then a fast crash.
Rising prices are only one factor among many different variables, but it does demonstrate that we’re unable to curb consumption even at the price increases we have already seen. However, according to this article, Saudi Arabia is pretty much expecting us to reduce our consumption.
I have serious doubts that conservation measures will ever prove adequate enough, and we already know bioethanol and alternative fuels can’t keep up to demand. The upshot of all this is how a slow crash, i.e., the drawdown of the world’s resources to maintain our existing living standards, will ultimately destroy everything, all by itself, without considering any other factors or variables.
The inability to make drastic and widesweeping changes in global consumption habits should be pretty obvious by now. Actually, to be entirely fair, in First World nation consumption habits. While many nations, particularly China are vying to catch up to our living standards, the energy and resource consumption levels of First World nations will probably remain forever unmatched. You’ve heard the saying, “this is as good as it gets”? Well, that’s true in this case, we are now living at the very apex of civilization and no other nations on earth will ever achieve this level again. Possibly for forever.
If we’re not willing to truly conserve, and if gradual price increases do not affect our consumption habits, what might we expect? Assuming no other factors, a world of increasing scarcity, then “total exhaustion” of non-renewable resources, and extensive depletion of renewable resources. Collapse will then commence in earnest, followed by a massive die-off on a global scale and then a long, slow recovery towards localized communities.
Of course, I don’t think this will happen, because of the deep interconnected links between energy, resources and politics. Long before total exhaustion, war, rationing and population control will be widespread. A severe curtailment upon goods, commerce, industry, travel and personal freedom will be enacted.
Not too many people remember war rationing as the nation geared up for battle. But imagine this on a global scale, forever, or at least until the population levels dropped and stabilizes to sustainable limits. This will, under the slow crash scenario, last a long time, perhaps a generation or more. The linchpin is energy. As energy resources diminish, so will everything else. Prices will rise and rise and rise, and eventually, the scarcity of goods will be widespread. In time, this will be dealt with by rationing and nationalization of all resources; food, water, electricity, transportation and even medicine.
A slow crash essentially means the absolute destruction of everything we’ve ever known. It is the worst of all possible outcomes in reality, because it leaves absolutely nothing for future generations and expends all of the world’s resources on trying to maintain the present generation at the complete expense of all future generations. This in reality, is “speciescide” at an unprecedented level in human history.
And there is also “the promise”, called the “techno-fix” inherent in the slow crash scenario. It usually goes something like this: “Given enough time and effort and energy, mankind will miraculously resolve his most pressing problems, including energy, pollution and environmental destruction, and will save himself from the brink of disaster”. This type of belief is found very often in the writings of climate change deniers, peak oil naysayers and technogeek “environmentalist” types who base this belief on nothing more substantial then wishful thinking and corporate press releases.
Time is what they demand, as the world continues it’s headlong plunge into oblivion. Time is all that is needed to find the “fix” while consumption levels remain high and the unseen cliff looms ever closer.
Ironically, it is the fast crash outcome seen as the “cliff” event to be dreaded most, because of this belief in the “fix”. Fast crash is the cliff coming suddenly and almost without warning, leveling civilization to pre-industrial levels rather quickly. This cliff seems frightening, insurmountable and the most devastating, but it is the opposite that is actually true.
The slow crash cliff is the worse of all possible outcomes, doing little to nothing to prepare people for the inevitable drop off. The technofix is simply not coming, and this belief is very dangerous. Don’t forget, bioethanol was one such “promise” that is already proving to be false. It is accelerating the environmental destruction.
It’s quite possible, with this kind of wrong thinking and unrealistic expectations, that the slow crash response, which is in fact what we have today, will trigger the fast crash cliff far sooner then the slow crash cliff. That remains a distinct possibility. Earlier I mentioned the interconnected links between energy, resources and politics. As slow crash grinds on, as it is doing today, any one of these areas could trigger a domino effect in the others. In the real world, there are many other factors to consider, not the least which is climate change, drought, war, famine, pandemic, crop failures, biodiversity loss, rising sea levels and many more.
The slow crash will deal with all of these as it progresses towards the cliff. The fast crash could avoid many of these as it heads over the cliff much, much sooner. And it also has the advantage of avoiding speciescide. It is the only crash outcome that can truly be called “desirable”.
Finally, I think it’s worth mentioning again that either scenario is really not up to “us” crash watchers. What will be, will be, despite all and everything we might do. That the crash is well underway is without doubt. That up until now, the slow crash has the upper hand. But we still do not know if the domino effect will kick in adequately to trigger a fast crash. It might not. And if it doesn’t, this will be the worst of all possible outcomes.
Hypothetically speaking, if I was a member of the ruling elite and I understood these things, I’d definitely be considering ways to accelerate the entire process, opting for a fast, hard crash over the slow variety. This would be much more profitable in the long run for me and mine and even ensure my own progeny a chance at recovery while staying very rich.
But I don’t know if they’re that smart. Maybe, maybe not. But if they are, your time is running out. Which it is anyway, this blog has documented many global events that are all accumulating into a pixel perfect picture of catastrophic proportions. Prepare for crash as if there is no tomorrow, because one day, there won’t be.
Yes. Slow crash will be the worst scenario. It would likely cause more suffering and a longer lasting, more encompassing die-off spanning decades or generations.
A fast cliff situation would probably seem more devastating to all at first, but more people may survive. A stable population could be attained without hitting a very low point first and then coming back up.
I just look around the world and see peoples capacity and willingness to survive any hardship or atrocity and still there populations grow!
To me I see a slow crash till a catabolic collapse of the food system where people end up eating grass to just fill there belly. What little history I have read on famine, and looking at the shear numbers in world population that would have to perish to reach just 1 billion is almost incomprehensible.
Numbers I have seen show that we would have to have 100,000,000 excess deaths per Year (including a declining birth rate to 0 in 75 years) to reach 1 billion in 75 years. That is about 10X the 10 million per year that died during the second world war. In context for me the entire population of the US would only take 3 1/2 years to disappear under a slow scenario.
A fast crash if say happened over 10 years would mean around 600,000,000 excess deaths per year! A US size population would have to dissapear every 6 Months!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes Geoff. In a slow collapse, people won’t die on a set time line. It is amazing how people can survive in other countries with practically nothing for extended periods. What I do see happening is multiple problems that make life more difficult each year until that area collapses.
Take for example Australia. Everyone has heard about the drought that is going on there. This has been going on for several years in a row. If in a future scenario of resource depletion, costs of transportation is too expensive to send food, or takes to long because of having to sail, most of the continent could die off at once. Even though most of the rest of the world had a reasonably good harvest and a slight increase in population.
Each year that would go by could certainly see a higher than usual death rate during the drought itself. One year of drought and then normalization of rain fall might not do too much in the way of culling. But many years in a row would weaken the population and maybe the fourth one wipes out almost everyone at once.
I can imagine other scenarios as well. Say medical care funding is cut to the bare minimum needed to handle most emergencies only. And then an outbreak of disease happens that overwhelms the resources. Many people could die at once, but the problem of not being adequately prepared would have been festering for some time.
Other examples could also explain how things would be happening all at once, in some areas, but over a larger area, look like it’s happening more slowly. A town decides to save money by getting rid of their firehall and equipment. A study shows that big fires only happen once in a while. There hasn’t been a fire in more than 25 years of any signifigance. Other towns see the advantages and do the same thing to save money. Then one day an entire town burns down at once, lots of people die in the fire. More die fighting the fire because of poor equipment. Still others of the majority are now homeless and vulnerable to the elements having lost everything.
So, a quick die off of say 50 % by a bird flu world wide would be shocking and remembered in history. Whereas smaller local die-offs of starvation would continue suffering for many more years and be more encompassing world wide as resources deplete. Some of the weak would die off of course, leaving more for the rest, but allowing the situation to prolong until everything is affected, causing more of a die-off in the end. Maybe not as shocking and news worthy. More like a frog in boiling water.
One way or another, fast or slow, the population will be reduced to sustainable levels. Overall, I see a general constant decline in quality of being able to eek out a living in all areas due to declining energy. If gov’t were to outlaw all personal vehicles, a sudden temporary glut of gasoline supplies could happen. Everyone’s life would suffer because they can’t drive, but there would be enough gasoline to do the things we needed like transport food, or grow it. For a while anyway, until more had to be done to be sustainable.
Because of the way we are, no one wants to go far enough to truly be sustainable. We will continue to keep trying to do waht we are doing, dragging everyone down. There is no haven to escape this. Although some areas may thrive better than others despite our collective mentality.
Here’s my view of the world on a simplified, strawman, or what if?
A large number of people living in the bottom of the Grand Canyon. In living memory, nothing of consequence has ever happened. There is speculation on how the canyon was formed. Some say it happened more or less all at once in catastrophic manner. Some say it washed away slowly by the meandering river below over eons. Still others say it was created by God.
The fact of the matter may be that the general population is in serious danger of being completely wiped out. Any other society that had lived there before flourished and then died off. The only evidence is their bones and a few tools. Most don’t believe it couldn’t happen again. The river and canyon has been stable for years according to Grandpa. But his Grandpa told him long ago when he was a boy, something may have happened, maybe not. Outside of the canyon is not suitable for anything but a meager existence, and no one wants to live there.
There would be a few that stare at the steep walls and think; “Gees, “That rock face above us can come tumbling down at any moment, wiping all of us out. A few others say; “No, no. You’re wrong. There will be a great flood one day, and we will all be washed away”! Some believe that nothing can be done because we can not all live outside of the canyon. There isn’t enough fertile land to support everyone. What happens will happen, but not in my life time. The majority think that God will save us, or we will think of something long before anything will happen to us.
The rock slide thinkers want to, or try to avoid a future catastrophy by telling others what they believe. The flood believers say similar things, but believe in a different scenario, so their ideas on survival is different than the rock slide theorists.
A very few say they are both right, and we should prepare to have either event happen without warning. Smaller population, and out of danger of the river and the canyon walls that are the steepest. Structures could be built high enough from the river’s fury, and strong enough to resist large avalanches. These people are thought of as total wackos since the cost and inconvenience is too high to pay. Besides, only a few places can be built and the population is too high to save all.
The vast majority don’t see a danger at all. God will save us. The events are not possible at all. Nothing has happened in recorded history, we’ll think of something.
Years go by and still nothing is done. Everyone argues about everything. No one wants to make any sacrifices. No one wants to pay the cost. No one thinks any of this is needed at all. Except a few nut cases that keep ranting.
What will likely happen. Most of the population eventually gets wiped out. Some that have prepared picked the right scenario and survived. Some others that prepared also, did not survive by picking the wrong event, not preparing enough, or delaying too long. Some that moved out of the canyon altogether survived of course, but they have always had a tough life and the conditions are not suited to build a society. Nature always keeps their numbers down. They will never face the problems of the canyon dwellers, but they will never have their richness either.
For the next few generations, all precautions are taken by the survivors. The ones lucky enough to live through it, get a serious wake up call. All children are taught preparedness skills. No one argues anynore. The old people are considered as the “wise ones”. Anyone that talks like a capitalist is ridiculed and sent to live in the graveyard for a month to look at the bones and rethink their foolish ideas.
Centuries goes by. Evidence is washed away. The elders are not heeded anymore. Cheap building materials are used so that not as much time and money needs to be spent for daily living.
Someone decides that the village should be moved closer to the river bottom near the shear cliff because the benefits are numerous……
Catabolic collapse (slow crash) was always in the cards. It’s how most civilizations throughout history went(the Roman Empire, for example), up until the decline triggered more traumatic, short term crises.
It’s going to get very bad, very slowly. Frog boiling in a pot all over again. It will look like an economic collapse (alone) initially….already does, in fact.
And like the frog, humans seem distinctively unaware until it’s too late. For example, your first linked article – left unsaid is that average gasoline prices have been rising for 8 solid years now, yet annual US petroleum demand has increased every year during that time. Market forces alone clearly do not reduced usage. Americans are borrowing what they are spending (with negative average savings rates for two years now).
Another example: My usual “Special K” w/strawberries breakfast cereal was ‘on sale’ for $4.25/box at Walmart this weekend. That’s a nearly +1/3rd increase since Christmas, and at Walmart (elcheapo), no less. No problem, I just charged it. ^_^
Speaking of Walmart, they just reported for April the single worst retail sales figures since they started reporting (1980). Down nearly 4% year over year. Target was down 6%. All the major retailers are hemorrhaging badly, and according to one index (UBS), retailers are having their worst time in 35 years.
The home re-fi ATM machine is now closed.
North American car sales, even for stalwarts Toyota and Honda, are falling.
We will happily and ignorantly burn the last tree on the island, and then say reply incensed “what do you mean there are not any more?”
neargone, Damn dude, did you just sit down and type that up off your head for all of us at SA? Well done!
Lionstone. Yes. It’s an original story.
I’m not as prepared as I should be. Even if it looks like I understand the kind of problems that need to be solved. I have trouble giving up this lifestyle to ensure my survival. There is a lot to learn and many sacrifices that I must make. I’m not looking forward to any of the problems ahead. If I don’t get my act in gear, my chances are not much different then my neighbor’s.
Great story and follow up comments. I hadn’t heard the term catabolic collapse, I’ll need to look that one up!
As financial pressures increase because of the current high per capita debt force previously complacent people into foreclosure and bankruptcy, we will see pressure come to bear on the utility companies as their customer base erodes. The simple fact is that we will pay higher transport costs to get to our places of employment and higher housing costs before we allow funds for gas and electricity. This erosion is not well known but I do recall that in the USA many people spend the warmer months of the year paying off the outstanding debts incurred heating their homes during winter. The article I recall stated that the situation is worsening as the utility companies carry more and more customer debt. I do not live in the USA and therefore have to rely on various media sources and informed persons. The point to my comment is that the collapse has already begun because people are encouraged to live on debt without regard for the future. This mindset that has been created in people is the same mindset that will allow people to walk willingly into the abyss with the thought that “THEY” will come up with something soon that will allow life to continue unabated. People are distracted by feel good TV shows, you all know the ones, every country that is on the edge of the abyss has the same shows, albiet local versions. Sadly climate change may upstage resource depletion. Nasa scientists in early June 2007 found that Greenland which had been melting at a rate of 5 feet per year in 2000 is in June 2007 now melting at 75 feet per year. That is an increase of 12.5 times. Based on that rate of melt in another 7 years, Greenland will be melting at 675 feet per year. Thats if things stay constant.When it comes to ice and water, things never are, the greater the area of ice in contact with water the faster the melt. This may be a possible domino that triggers dislocation and food shortages and disease and die off reasonably early. It is past time for people to start to prepare. Do you have a place that is familiar out of the cities? Learn how to survive by doing a first aid course. Learn to grow some food, even its only in pots on your balcony. Do you know how to collect rainwater? The simple games I played as a child on the family farm in my country are soon to be survival skills. Things can go bad very fast if the electricity fails. Forget every thing else, without electricity you are truly vulnerable. Plan around that. Good luck.
[...] Anyhow, enough of that. Collapse is already underway and our job now isn’t to stop it, it’s too big, too fast and caused by too many failing mechanisms and control system and even the environment itself to be prevented. The long slow collapse will be the worst possible outcome and probably kill far, far more people then a fast collapse. Nobody really knows yet which one it will be (and I ain’t going to argue it, ’cause it’s a flat out pointless waste of my time). It will be what it will be. Our job will be to survive it, if we can. [...]
[...] A slow collapse will provide some opportunity to “manage” the population reduction, a foregone conclusion no matter what happens. Refugee camps, occupying armies and the nationalization of assets are expected. This will also be one of the worst outcomes believe it or not, since it will ensure the final destruction of almost everything. [...]
[...] One peak-oil aware, ecologically literate blogger has pointed out in “Why A Slow Crash Will Destroy Everything“ that the longer the collapse of industrial civilization takes, the more damage to the Earth there will be. The more damage to the Earth that takes place, the fewer will be the number of humans that can survive. Not that it’s in anyone’s power to determine how fast or slow our civilization will disintegrate! Except, that is, those who have nuclear weapons at their disposal. [...]
[...] Growth means we return to at least a modicum of prosperity and commerce, forestalling temporarily our collapse only as long as we can maintain the energy inputs and continue to harvest the remaining resources; growth still means continued competition for essential resources since cooperation isn’t what we actually do; growth actually means collapse — eventually, as finite resources can never be infinite, nor can populations always expand indefinitely, nor can energy supplies as utilized today last forever, nor can environmental collapse be “managed”, et. al, — growth actually still means collapse, only a little later (but worse in all probability since there won’t be anything left, see “Why A Slow Crash Will Destroy Everything“). [...]