The Carbon Future

We now, in the year 2018, have a carbon problem of such gargantuan size and severity that it now presents an extinction level threat to most, if not all life on Earth no matter what we now do.

This problem remains totally unsolved. This dilemma facing all of humanity, indeed all of life on Earth is truly monumental. It staggers our ability to imagine the scale, scope and complexity of this threat. We’re still trying to come to grips with what this really means. Numerous past articles have tried to do exactly that – this is yet another attempt.

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We Don’t Have As Much Time As Everyone Thinks

I cannot find any reason to doubt these conclusions, can you?

Estimating the warming rate for each, the highest rate is for the data from Cowtan & Way, a whopping 1.91 ± 0.24 °C per century. The “±” indicates a 95% confidence interval, so the real rate is almost surely between 1.67 and 2.15 °C per century. At those rates, we’ll reach extremely bad sometime between 2036 and 2042….

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Fresh Water Disappearing

Surprise, surprise (not) – More than 5 billion people could suffer water shortages by 2050 due to climate change

Unless you’ve been living under a well-watered rock for the past few years, the notion that water shortages won’t be a problem for billions in the years ahead is factually false.

Glaciers are going to continue to keep melting for decades – Well, duh! That’s what glaciers do – but what they reporting is old news here.  If all carbon emissions were stopped instantly, there would still be massive glacial melt for decades. Of course – it’s called climate inertia and it’s as unstoppable as the rising sun. This is another puff piece that doesn’t do this topic any justice – like just how will 5 billion people survive without this essential melt water that provides drinking, irrigation, sanitation and industrial activity? Hint – many of them won’t.

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Trump States Suffer Most – Poetic Justice?

In a interesting twist of ‘fate’ (if you can call man-made climate change such a thing), the Trump states will suffer the most under a warming world:

There are a few takeaway messages. First, the color scale is not symmetric – that is the orange and red values represent pretty large economic losses whereas the green values are notably smaller economic benefits. Secondly, there are more regions that will lose than there are that will win. When interpreting an image like this, we have to be cognizant of the fact that more people live in the Southeast than in the central west.

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Heatwaves Deaths Projected To Increase 5400%, Coastal Floods 3780%, Wildfires 138%, River Floods 54%, Windstorms 20%

You need to dig a little (read) to find this nugget in this article:

Deaths from heatwaves were projected to increase by 5,400 percent, coastal foods by 3,780 percent, wildfires by 138 percent, river floods by 54 percent and windstorms by 20 percent.  European heatwave deaths could skyrocket: climate study

Heatwaves are expected to do the worst damage, jumping from 11 people per million currently to about 700 per million.

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More Scientific Inaccuracies (and deceptions)

There’s been a “rebuttal” of sorts to the recent “Uninhabited Earth” article published by the New York Magazine.

Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on “The Uninhabitable Earth” gets wrong

I read through this collection of comments and the stunning denial of reality was atypical – of the general public, but scientists? Seriously? Clearly, they’re responding exactly like the general public does, reactionary, cherry-picking and denying their own previously published comments. What does this mean? Hard to say, I’d like to see where these reviewers get (all) their paychecks from. Especially now that the Trump Administration has basically ordered that the topic of climate change to be taboo.

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More Scientific Inaccuracies

A truly terrible and inaccurate paper has been presented on Real Climate (a site that I abandon some time back because of their collective failure to deal with reality). Titled “Why global emissions must peak by 2020“, scientists Stefan Rahmstorf and Anders Levermann pretend that by offering lies and deceptions, everything is going to be ok.

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Is This The Start of Runaway Global Warming?

This is an essay by William P Hall, President, Kororoit Institute, Evolutionary Biology of Species and Organisms.

The observations show a growing risk to human society from runaway global warming, and they beg explanation.

This essay focuses on observations of what appears to be the start of runaway warming in the Arctic that may have profound effects on global climates over the next few years; and a plausible cause – the warming driven release of methane gas from permafrost forming a strong greenhouse cap over the Arctic Ocean.

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Open Thread

A couple of articles found over on Desdemona:

Scientists foresee sharp rise in deadly heat stress as global temperatures climb – “Because the response is nonlinear, for each fraction of a degree the climate warms, the increase in heat stress is ever greater”

UW professor: The information war is real, and we’re losing it

The deceptions and lies being spread by the so-called alternative news sites like Infowars and others is winning the media war. I’ve always said that this sort of thing is not harmless, it is very harmful because of how people react to connedspiracy. This is directly related to the anti-science, anti-facts, anti-evidence claims and fabrications being promoted. In other words, thinking people are surrounded by complete morons in America.

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India under intense heat wave: Temperatures soaring to abnormal levels well ahead of the summer season: Maharashtra records record 46.5C (114F)

This is a dangerous development, months ahead of the normal summer heat: India under intense heat wave: Temperatures soaring to abnormal levels well ahead of the summer season: Maharashtra records record 46.5C (114F).

I doubt if a bunch of dead people will gain the attention of the idiotic world leaders who have chosen to play “Trumpy See, Trumpy Do”, but a heat wave of this magnitude this early is revealing that things are changing rapidly.

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Flirting With Disaster

Oh boy.

The Heartland Institute plans on contacting EVERY science teacher in the country. To do what, might you ask? To encouraging these teachers to consider and teach explanations for global warming that reject humans’ role in a changing climate.

This boils my blood, because the Heartland Institute has a long, long history of despicable practices and deceit. Their lies about the scientific consensus has long been taken to task, and yet they’re still regurgitation this crap and insisting this is taught to every child in the country. They’re siezing the political opportunity generated by the Trumpanzees and Trumpatollah and the miserable failure of the whore media which sold out America long ago.

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Expect 350 Million More People To Suffer Heat Stress by 2050

2050 isn’t that far off. I might even live that long myself. But I’d be among the old, young and infirm that are certain to suffer from heat stress, potentially killing millions.

An analysis of 44 of the 101 most populous “megacities” showed that the number of cities experiencing heat stress doubled with 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) of warming, researchers reported.

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American Stupid

I’ve poisoned and polluted myself by trying to post a few comments on some of the climate denial articles that have recently come out. I need a shower.

What is very, very clear to me is climate denialists have no grasp of the basic science that has measured global warming. Truly ridiculous and inane arguments are trotted out over and over. None make any sense at all, once you understand the basic science and how the entire “warming” arguments (and evidence) came about. Virtually all of their arguments have been soundly disproved over and over again, but they’re still being used as their defense against global warming.

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Failing To Comprehend

A few quotations and how even the ‘informed’ are still failing to comprehend the true outcome of what these measurements and observations really mean:

Are Jellyfish Going To Take Over The Ocean?

“The thing that grabs me the most is how something so diaphanous, so brainless — so incredibly, unbelievably simple — can cause so much devastation and so much death and so much harm.”

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Check Mate

Time for some other important news:

Scientists: Trump climate policies will mean “game over”. Climate change may be escalating so fast it could be ‘game over’, scientists warn.

It is a vision of a future so apocalyptic that it is hard to even imagine.
But, if leading scientists writing in one of the most respected academic journals are right, planet Earth could be on course for global warming of more than seven degrees Celsius within a lifetime.

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Gigantic Methane Emissions in Eastern Arctic Confirmed

Arctic methane gas emission ‘significantly increased since 2014’ – major new research

Unlike the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the leaking methane into the Laptev sea is virtually unstoppable now. In time, the damage to the planet will be far, far greater then the oil spill was to the Gulf Coast.

But you have to realize some things that are still not being said. We all know methane is far worse for the climate then carbon dioxide, and that its contribution to greenhouse warming effects are far higher.

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Extreme Events Escalating World Wide Part III

Louisiana massive floods – 18 ft of river rise in just 12 hours. 24″ of rain and counting.

Record flooding in Louisiana may get worse – “Colossal amounts of rain”.

Louisiana flooding, evacuation and rescues – There will be more.

Flooding Now Causing Most Crop Damages – The extremes of drought and rain are vying for 1st place.

Wildlife and Plants Feeling the Heat – “It’s a wicked problem”. “It’s almost all bad news. … We’re sleepwalking to disaster”.

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Global Dimming

This is a very interesting video (submitted by Rich on FB) depicting global dimming and how it was first discovered and then brought to the forefront as one of the most devastating effects of climate change. A must see all the way through.

Global dimming is a double-edged sword – keeping the planet significantly cooler then it would be already (without pollution and suspended aerosols being constantly added) yet at the same time adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere.

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New Study Predicts an Intolerably Hot World

Posted, but worth making a separate entry here: New Study Predicts an Intolerably Hot World

Not the best article and some really inaccurate statements. I suspect the editors refused to allow the real facts to be accurately published. There are numerous dishonest claims here. Listed in order as shown in the article:

  • a) There will be no great grandchildren (for most of us) as humans will be gone by the time frames claimed (read on).
  • b) 6.4 to 9.5 degrees Celsius are unsurvivable temperatures (for anything living), vastly exceeding survivable wet-bulb temperatures. 1 degree Celsius increases atmospheric moisture by 7% (massive storms on a scale not even imaginable). So temperatures are too hot to survive and nothing will due to heat, rain, storms and even drought. We are already seeing extremely dangerous temperatures exceeding survival rates in India right now (long before 2300).
  • c) Sea level trajectories are already over 21 feet by 2100. Far above what this article claims, which means most low-lying coastal cities will be flooded creating over a billion refugees.
  • d) Food supplies will be more then “disrupted”, there won’t be any. Starvation on a global scale will come first before heat-stroke and death by thirst. This is happening now, with 72 million in Africa facing starvation by December (this year) according to published reports.
  • e) The methane hydrate problem is seriously glossed over. A major “methane pulse” to the atmosphere is expected at any time and there are already indications that this is now underway with a dramatic jump in methane levels.
  • f) Climate refugees already number over 100 million (today) and will exceed over 3 billion by 2050, a far greater number then claimed in the article.
  • g) Temperature increases would indeed ‘flatten-out’ over time – on the scale of thousands of years. We don’t have the kind of time left.
  • h) 2015 – 2016 has seen a very dramatic jump in temperature, which now appears to be non-linear, meaning it will acclerate faster and faster by all indications, making these time-frames claimed erroneous at best and disingenuous at worst.
  • i) There is virtually no chance now of “limiting warming” within human lifetimes. Warming is accelerating now beyond human emissions and feed backs due to nature sources now becoming emitters, including such things as albedo feedback (no ice). A blue-ocean event in the Arctic may happens as early as this year (September time frame). This will dramatically increase warming in the Arctic and sets the stage for runaway feed backs, including permafrost melting and methane from organic soils.
  • j) Alternative energy is not-carbon free and studies have shown that it can actually increase emissions. Nor does alternative energy supply enough for human needs, but it does deplete critical and non-replaceable resources and has a very limited time replacement life span on the order of just a few decades. We do not have enough raw materials to continue to replace what is needed while trying to meet increasing needs.
  • k) Carbon fees don’t accomplish anything other then making some richer. All economic activity by any source creates carbon emissions. Money cannot solve climate change, this is a triggered physical process that is now beyond our assumptions of control.
  • l) The many assumptions and claims in this article are intended to persuade readers that we are not in a planetary emergency and what more scientist now believe is an extinction level event (ours). It is well known that a 6th “great extinction” is now underway globally, but the question still be grappled with is “does it include us?” and the evidence says decidedly yes. We have only a few decades at most in order to survive on this planet as temperatures, droughts, extreme weather, starvation and devastation will wipe out life on this planet. This is the greatest threat humanity has ever faced and the evidence has been published in many places including on this blog.
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