Nov 252009
 

Climate news is coming in very fast now.  Too much to delay publication!  Be sure to read the final entry from Market Skeptics.

CRU Hack – Already mentioned in issue No. 30, this is still white noise and utterly meaningless.  Real Climate has done a pretty good writeup you can find at the link.

Read the comments too — much information to be gleaned there.  If you really want to know the type of discussions going on between scientists, here’s a good place to start.

I like the Island’s of Doubt writeup, and one of the quips from a commentators:

If you think that global warming rests on a few temperature data sets and models, you are very wrong. If you don’t understand this then you don’t know enough to have an opinion on the subject, and you most likely will be treated just like any other ineducable troll.

Grab a climate textbook and do some reading…it will help if you have some physics background too. Yeah, science takes effort…

Carbon Fixated has a fun writeup – Newtongate.  Just throw it all out….

It’s VERY clear the denialist crowd has an agenda and damn the science or the evidence.  Oddly, they’re the ones claiming that it is the scientist who have an agenda in some sort of evil cabal of global domination (shades of Alex Jones and others).

The only “agenda” really at work here is panic. Denialists are scared to death the scientists are correct, because it means that the party is over and they wrongly think that they are “fighting” for their way of life (they’re not, it’s already over, but they are way to dense to realize this).

Scientists are growing increasingly angry at the denial meme and what it means for humanity.  Both groups are being driven further apart, but both are showing signs of increasing panic.  Right now, this is the only common bond that exists between them.

Frankly, I predict that in the end, this flap will help the scientific community and humanity.  Greater transparency will be the result, plus it will force many in the scientific community to be more forthcoming on their analysis and results and even bring some of the “scientific reticence” I’ve harped upon to an end.

Anytime there is this type of “expose” based upon fraudelent claims, misunderstanding and taking information way, way out of context, the final end result can actually be an improvement on the swirls of bullshit being slung around.  At least, that’s what I think will happen, and I think this will happen because this really is a very very critical and important issue that affects all of humanity.  No way will this wind up taking a “victory” over the actual science and actual evidence now taking place all over the world.

Maybe we’ll see science get off it’s academic butt and start becoming more vocal.  I sure the hell hope so.

Meanwhile, Global Warming Speeding Up.  Yep, the Earth is still turning, irrespective of the science.   Nothing is going to stop this apparently, as humanity remains stupidly divided over what is dead obvious now. This doesn’t say much for our species, or at least a large segment of the population.

Greenhouse Gases Reach Highest Recorded Level — Maybe this has something to do with the 84,000,000 barrels of oil we’re burning per day?

Let’s see 317 kg of carbon per barrel (minimum estimate)  x 85,534,000  = 12,298,829,629 lbs per day, spewing into the atmosphere.  And that’s just the human oil consumption, there is much more then this going on with natural emission (much of it caused by global warming now).  Much of it has sunk into the oceans, except whaddayaknow!!  They’re now acidic and can’t aborb much more….

And whaddayaknow!  Humans are not causing any of this….  (insert head into sand, and chant “natural variations” 10,000,000 times, if you believe it hard enough, you can make it ALL just go away).

The Copenhagen Diagnosis Report can be downloaded here.

Here is the Executive Summary:

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More
specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

Once again, I’ve been proven right.  The scientists are still scrambling to update their predictions.  The IPCC has been way behind the curve in reality, and I believe that even this update is still behind the curve.

A few more articles:

Australia Breaking Records on High Temperatures

World’s Largest Ice Sheet Breaking Up Faster Then Expected

Insurance Giant Warns Climate Tipping Points In Sight (these estimates are badly out of date)

The “polar communities” some are promoting for the future are going to have a hard time fishing in the the Arctic Ocean it seems.

Market Skeptics reports:  Food / Gold Shortages Reach Breaking Point.  Many links and a long write-up with news sources of 2009 catastrophic crop losses.  I won’t mention the gold issues again, as I still disagree with the gold bugs.

If the crop losses are as bad as this report indicates, we will see price spikes for sure.  So far, I have not heard anything, but the tons of links and sources in this article are very sobering.

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